ANALYSIS: US stuck between two enemies in Yemen

When Houthi rebels seized the presidential palace last week in Sanaa and forced the resignation of the Yemeni government, US officials were quick to emphasise a concern they have been for voicing for years: the continued support for and importance of counterterrorism strategy against al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP). 

"This administration remains committed to pursuing a counterterrorism strategy against AQAP to protect the American people and our interests," White House press secretary Josh Earnest said on Friday, hours after President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi's resignation.

Yemen is the latest in a growing list of US allies in the Middle East to have entered a new, highly unstable phase.

With the Houthis, a predominantly Zaydi Shiite movement reportedly backed by Iran, controlling the capital and the government of US-ally Hadi in tatters, US priorities in Yemen and the future of its counterterrorism strategy against AQAP have come into question.  

Of all of Yemen’s many political crises including a mass uprising in 2011 that toppled former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, the turmoil of last week was among the worst in terms of the US counterterrorism strategy in the Arabian Peninsula, Charles Schmitz, an analyst with the Washington-based Middle East Institute and an expert on the Houthis, told Anadolu news agency. 

The US has invested millions of dollars in the central government in Yemen since 2011 and stepped up its drone campaign in order to maintain its partnership with Sanaa in the fight against AQAP. The collapse of the cabinet last week may have left Washington without such a partner. 

Threat of separation

The Houthis' takeover appears to have strengthened the desire among seperatists in the south for independence as well as leaving northern areas to Houthi groups, further dividing the country into entities hostile to the US. 

"The main concern of the United States is the partition of Yemen," Schmitz said. "So the priority will be paid to keeping the country together." 

Yemen does not have a tradition of Shiite-Sunni violence (Zaydi Shiites and Sunnis are close in religious practice) but, analysts say, al-Qaeda has explicitly framed the battle in sectarian terms and is using it as a recruitment tool. 

In case of a division, Schmitz said both parts of Yemen - a Shiite north and Sunni south - will be hostile to Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the US, and also the main regional sponsor of Yemen’s central government that through economic aid has kept its economy afloat. 

Saudi Arabia views Houthis as Iranian proxies and has reportedly suspended the bulk of its financial assistance to Yemen, which will make it difficult for Yemen to form an effective centralised government in Sanaa and contribute to the US’s counterterrorism strategy. 

According to a report recently published by the Middle East Institute, support from the kingdom has kept the country’s economy afloat to the tune of at least $4 billion since 2012 but following the reports of cuts there are already prospects of a fiscal collapse in 2015.

Houthis, a new US partner?

In veiled references, the US hinted on Tuesday that it may be in contact with the Houthis.

“US government officials are in communication with various parties in Yemen,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters.

“The Houthis, as participants in these event,s will certainly have reason to want to speak to international partners and the international community about their intentions and about how this process is going to unfold,” he said, stressing that there is no intelligence sharing with the rebels.       

Despite Saudi sentiments against Houthis, the US has left the door of cooperation open to them as well as wider segments of Yemeni society, but the views of policymakers are not yet clear concerning possible new partners in Yemen.

"In fact, the interests of Houthis and those of the US coincided in Yemen as both are enemies to AQAP, but we should bear in mind that the Houthis also have anti-American sentiments, they have a flag, printed on ‘death to America, death to Israel,’ Schmitz added. 

Add to this, the Houthi group's connection with Iran is also one of the top concerns for the U.S.

"It is undoubted that Houthis are influenced by Iran," said Schmitz, who added that the type of link between Iran and the Houthis is different from that it has with Hezbollah.

"Unlike Hezbollah, the Houthi group is a local group which has its own social basis within Yemen," he said. 

White House press secretary Josh Earnest also agreed that Iran’s influence, which he characterised as a sort of "command-and-control influence," doesn't appear to be of the extent it has been with Hezbollah.

Washington also considers the Houthi group "a legitimate political constituency in Yemen," and a group that shares similar concerns toward AQAP, but according to administration officials these factors are not enough for the US to cooperate with the rebel group. 

Strategy of containment

US policy-makers are well aware of the fact that the Houthi takeover in Yemen will inevitably put Houthis in conflict with AQAP but whether the administration will benefit from this conflict and cooperate with Houthis is not yet clear. 

According to Berman, the US may try to contain the conflict inside the country letting it burn out both groups, or on tactical terms, cooperate with Houthis to fight AQAP. 

"Cooperation tactically is not out of the question against the Islamic State, or ISIL, it [the US] is already interacting with Iran. It is quite possible that you have the same sort of dynamic emerge over time in Yemen," he said.

In terms of strategic alignment, however, it is going to be very challenging for the US, because the Houthis have been very clear that they are far less receptive to cooperation with the US than the Hadi government, according to Berman.

During his State of the Union address last week, President Barack Obama characterised Yemen’s transition as a "success" but events on the ground have negated Obama's remarks. 

"The problem is that we have disconnection about how much the administration thinks it has achieved in the war on terror and how much is actually achieved," Berman said, noting that the counterterrorism strategy is "intended as a tactical approach.” 

"It is not intended to reverse the flow of al-Qaeda or Houthi rebels. It is intended to erode some of that capability by targeting individuals. It is also intended as a back stop measure for Yemeni counterterrorism,” he said. 

Noting that the US doesn't have good strategic options, Berman said, "We haven’t invested as much as we should have in stabilising the Yemeni government before it fell."

He added the reason of the lack of sufficient investment in the stability of Yemen is because the administration did not want to interfere deeply in the Arab spring, but he added that the US now is not in a position to effect events in Yemen at all.

Limited options for US

On the other hand, Washington is not likely to rethink its strategy in Yemen in the face of several challenges in the region. 

Berman said that the major focus of the White House is on getting to a deal with Iran on its nuclear programme, adding that working against a government which Iran supports is not in Washington’s near-term interests.

Schmitz also agreed that the US may cooperate with the Houthi in the fight against the al-Qaeda affiliate but the cooperation would either be covert or a tactical coincidence. 

"The United States has indeed cooperated with Houthis but it was not a publicly stated cooperation. American drones were hitting the AQAP targets from the air while Houthi militia were fighting them on the ground," Schmitz said.  

Events on the ground in Yemen are moving in a different direction than the “success” Obama touted in his address last week, and the country appears poised for yet another round of upheaval, possibly more transformative than events since uprisings began in Yemen in 2011.

Inside the country, the Houthi takeover is galvanising calls for southern independence because Sunni groups argue that recent events are further evidence that they cannot tie their political future to the north.