Syria: Russia fails to halt Aleppo offensive with war planes diverted to Ukraine
Russia is struggling to contain a Syrian rebel offensive on Aleppo, as fighters make rapid progress towards the city centre.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Moscow views the offensive as a violation of Syrian sovereignty and expects Bashar al-Assad's government to restore order as soon as possible.
Notably, he did not announce any Russian plans for de-escalation or suggest that Moscow would step in forcefully to back Syrian government forces, as it has in the past.
Turkish security sources told Middle East Eye that Russia was slow to respond to the developments on the ground because it had relocated most of its aerial assets to Ukraine to support its military campaign there.
This left behind a smaller force in Syria, insufficient to effectively counter the assault by led by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which began on Wednesday.
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Omer Ozkizilcik, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, said that while Russia attempted to curb the offensive by targeting select locations in Idlib and other areas of northwestern Syria, its efforts were insufficient to halt the offensive.
“Russia is not a bystander, but we are likely witnessing the limits of the Russian military,” he said. “The two-day performance of Russia indicates that much of its air force capability has been redeployed to Ukraine.”
'The two-day performance of Russia indicates that much of its air force capability has been redeployed to Ukraine'
- Omer Ozkizilcik, Atlantic Council
Ozkizilcik pointed out that satellite images from Russia's Hmeimim airbase in northwest Syria's Latakia province show a dramatic reduction in its air force presence compared to 2019.
“Reports from local sources on air activity show that Russia is primarily using older fighter jet models,” he added.
Tensions between Turkey and Russia have been simmering recently, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticising Ankara earlier this month for supplying drones to Ukraine that have killed Russian soldiers.
While Turkey is not directly involved in the Syrian rebel offensive, Ankara appears to be supporting the operation.
Previous Syrian government offensives on opposition-held areas have displaced civilians towards Turkey’s borders, a situation that Turkish society is increasingly unwilling to tolerate.
Ozkizilcik highlighted that the Russian Air Force bombed a base belonging to the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) coalition of rebel groups. The base is located in a Turkish-controlled "safe zone", so Ozkizilcik described the attack as a direct message to Ankara.
Turkish involvement
Since then, HTS and allied forces have made significant advances, capturing large swathes of territory and rapidly progressing into the outskirts of Aleppo city.
Some rebel groups affiliated with the Turkish-backed SNA have joined the operation, although the majority of these forces have refrained from participating so far.
Turkish security sources told MEE on Thursday that the operation aims to restore the boundaries of the Idlib "de-escalation zone", which were initially agreed upon in 2019 by Russia, Turkey and Iran.
'This should serve as a stark reminder to Assad of his actual capabilities, as his power has only survived thanks to Russia, Iran and Hezbollah'
- Anton Mardasov, Middle East Institute
The way the rebels have conducted the operation - simultaneously breaching government-held territory in multiple areas - and the level of organisation suggest that Turkish security forces may have assisted in the planning stages.
Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said there is little doubt in Russia that the HTS-led offensive was supported by Turkey, citing the rapid supply of ammunition and coordination with Turkish-backed SNA forces.
He also noted that training for first-person view (FPV) drones, which are being heavily used by Syrian rebels in their offensive, was reportedly conducted in Turkish-controlled areas last summer.
“It is likely that drone operators are somehow involved in the operation from Idlib, as HTS has limited experience with FPV drones,” Mardasov said.
“This should serve as a stark reminder to Assad of his actual capabilities, as his power has only survived thanks to Russia, Iran and Hezbollah - all of which are currently preoccupied with their own challenges. Assad, in fact, has twice rejected Ankara’s offers to normalise relations.”
Mardasov added that the Russian Air Force has been relying primarily on weak Syrian government intelligence to identify targets in an effort to halt the offensive.
He pointed out that most Syrian army units have recently focused more on trading and taxation than military operations and lack the skills required for modern warfare.
“In recent years, Syria has become a destination for Moscow to send ineffective generals, many of whom made serious errors in managing troops in Ukraine,” he said.
“Despite its involvement in Ukraine, Russia can deploy a few combat aviation units to Syria, but this will have little effect without an organised defence on the ground, followed by counteroffensives.”
If the rebels continue to succeed, Mardasov believes there will be significant reputational costs for Russia.
He suggested that Moscow may eventually take action, possibly involving the Africa Corps, the successor to the paramilitary Wagner Group, but said that it would take time to materialise.
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