Lebanon’s Tripoli reacts to Hezbollah-Israel violence

TRIPOLI, Lebanon - Following Wednesday's exchange of fire on the Lebanon-Israel border that left two Israeli soldiers and a Spanish UNIFIL member dead, some in Lebanon’s second city Tripoli braced themselves in expectation of a large-scale retaliation from Israel. Others, however, were convinced neither side was willing to escalate tensions to all-out war. Very few seemed in favour of an all-out conflict.

Nabil and Khalid, two friends that work in finance in Lebanon and overseas, said that they did not think the country would see a repeat of 2006 when Hezbollah and Israel fought a bloody 34-day conflict.

They told Middle East Eye that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had nothing to gain from waging another war, especially with Israel set to go to the polls in March and the electorate seemingly split.

While Netanyahu would likely get a temporary boost, the pair explained, there was too much time between now and the election during which Israel could suffer military losses that would damage Netanyahu’s popularity.

"Israeli Prime Ministers who invade Lebanon don't survive politically," Khalid, who did not want to give his last name, said. "Netanyahu hasn't invaded Lebanon before - let him try and see what happens."

The reassuring message was also echoed by some national politicians.

Newspaper reports this morning stressed that Prime Minister Tammam Salam, who is widely seen as a consensus figure, had been assured that yesterday's attacks would not lead to war with Israel, with Tel Aviv telling media that it had received a message through the UN that Hezbollah did not wish the conflict to escalate.

But in a country fiercely divided between the pro-Hezbollah March 8 and anti-Hezbollah March 14 camps, opponents were quick to blast the group for dragging Lebanon towards an armed conflict with Israel that Lebanon could ill-afford.

Samir Geagea, the Christian Lebanese Forces leader, who belongs to the March 14 block, probably went the furthest saying that Hezbollah was “more and more expanding its regional schemes against the Lebanese state”.

"Hezbollah has no right to implicate the Lebanese people in a battle with Israel. There is a government and a parliament which can decide on that,” he added.

Lebanon's second city, Tripoli, is an impoverished, largely Sunni city seen as loyal to the March 14 block, but views and alliances here are mixed. While frequent deadly clashes break out here between the city’s majority Sunni population and its minority Alawite residents, many say that economics, not religion, or political loyalty is first on their mind.

Um Samer, 83, another Tripoli resident, explains that she has lived through decades of war.

The one-time Hezbollah supporter, has been feverishly flicking through the news channels last night to see what the country’s various commentators and analysts have been saying about events but she explains that after a lifetime of war, she has given up on politics and insists all she wants is peace.

Omar, the manager of a local sweets shop, said that he was concerned that Hezbollah's actions could pull Lebanon into another war, but said that he was more worried about his family and his business:

"In Lebanon people are concentrating on how to live, living is so hard everywhere in Lebanon," he said. "It's going to be so hard if there is war. Look, here, it's 9pm and there is no one around. The economy is too bad and it will become harder for people. No one can take any attitude, they only want to be safe. Now there has been war for more than 40 years. We want out, no matter what - we want out."

However, if push comes to shove, he insists that he would support the group against Israel, albeit reluctantly.

"Obviously there's nothing we can do, Hezbollah has taken action and no one can do anything about it," he said. "The UN can't do anything. UNIFIL can't do anything about what's going on in the south. There's going to be a war, I think, but let's hope not, because it's going to be a big price to pay."

Hezbollah was instrumental in forcing Israel to withdraw from southern Israel in 2000 after a more than 20-year occupation, but its unwillingness to put down arms after Israel’s departure has long divided Lebanese society.

After Hezbollah's war with Israel in 2006, which ended in an official stalemate, but for which Hezbollah claimed victory, support for the so-called resistance swelled across Lebanon.

Tripoli residents say Hezbollah flags were on display in restaurants and shops - a sight that would be unheard of today. Even those in the northern city who now adamantly oppose Hezbollah admit that their stance softened after the war. But the swell of initial good faith in Tripoli, residents say, was largely lost in 2008 when the government moved to dismantle Hezbollah's private telecommunications network and remove the Beirut airport head of security, who was believed to have Hezbollah loyalties.

Fighting between Hezbollah and the army soon broke out killing some 60 people, including civilians. Hezbollah’s moves to bring down the government in 2011, over its alleged involvement in the killing of former Sunni Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, only further cemented resentment, although some Tripoli residents said they would feel torn in case another war erupted.

Tripoli and Lebanon would support Hezbollah "in an emotional way, deep inside, but no one approves of what is happening in the south," said Omar, who did not want to give his last name for security reasons, in the often violence-hit city.

Like many in the small Mediterranean country, Omar apologetically noted that the nature of conflict in Lebanon had changed in recent years from an external focus on Israel to internal sectarian discord. But he also argued this was fuelled by foreign interference.

"This is a foreign agenda, it's not Lebanon. It’s Iran, Saudi Arabia, America, it's a conflict that has nothing to do with us, it's only from the outside not the inside," he said. "It's contagious, everything is about Sunni and Shiite now, sorry."