Erdogan well positioned ahead of runoff

Turkish officials and sources close to Erdogan have told Middle East Eye they are confident that he can easily win the runoff.

They believe Erdogan retaining a majority in parliament will give him a psychological superiority against his competitor in the case of a runoff. “Turkish people don’t like cohabitation,” one senior official said.

Another advantage is Sinan Ogan's voters, the third presidential candidate who got 5.2 percent of the vote. 

Analysis by MEE based on Anadolu Agency data indicates that Erdogan voters in several regions emigrated to Ogan. It may have been due to economic hardships or anti-refugee feeling. 

It is likely these voters will return to Erdogan’s camp in the runoff, since he most represents the Turkish nationalist side of the country in a binary choice with Kilicdaroglu.

Ragip Soylu's, our Turkey bureau chief, explains in his latest report from Ankara: 

Erdogan in a strong position ahead of presidential runoff