Battle for Turkey's presidency goes beyond personalities

Turkey will on Sunday hold the first direct presidential election in its 91-year history as a republic. Though the country is a parliamentary democracy, with executive powers comparable to Germany or Israel, the legislation to hold the vote for this constitutionally ceremonial role only came after a parliamentary impasse while electing the new president in 2007.

While the term of the former president Ahmet Necdet Sezer came to an end in May 2007, the parliament - which has always been the body to elect the new president - witnessed a boycott from the opposition, as the Justice and Development Party (AKP/AK Party) declared Abdullah Gul its candidate.

The Republican People's Party (CHP), which was the only opposition party during the first term of the AKP government between the years 2002-2007 openly opposed Gul's candidacy because his wife wore a headscarf. This was considered a major offense by the opposition, mainly because it does not align with the secular principles of the republic.

After a series of constitutional debates and procedural deadlocks, Gul could not be elected in May; and the deadlock was only resolved after the general elections in July 2007.

Just a few months later, the government party introduced a series of constitutional amendments, which were approved by a referendum in October 2007. Probably the most notable amendment was the election of the president with direct popular voting.

The current election will take place in the light of sporadic debates on a potential political regime shift from the parliamentary democracy to a semi or full presidential system. Though the AK Party government could not secure the necessary parliamentary majority to make the necessary constitutional changes, the outcome of the first direct presidential election will be a decisive moment for Turkey's political environment in the foreseeable future.

Candidates at a glance

Four parties in the parliament have nominated a total of three candidates.

The main opposition parties CHP and Nationalist Action Party (MHP) announced their joint candidate as the former General Secretary of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu.

Unsurprisingly, AKP declared the current Prime Minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan as their candidate; whereas Selahattin Demirtas was nominated by the Kurds backed Peoples' Democracy Party (HDP).

Erdogan's ambition to become the first directly elected president of Turkey has been clear since the beginning of the election period, but he was the last one to declare his candidacy. He does not only aim to become the president, he also intends to challenge the existing constitutional constraints which limit the executive powers of the president.

For the moment, it is uncertain how Erdogan will be able to exercise extensive executional actions within a presidential role, especially without a constitutional change; however, throughout his campaign he constantly focused on an action-oriented office. Earlier in April, Erdogan said, "The responsibilities will be different after these elections. It will not be a president of protocol, but one that sweats, runs around, and works hard."

The main opposition parties' candidate, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, has based his campaign on the idea of preserving the status-quo, emphasizing the parliamentary structure of the current regime. Though Ihsanoglu opposes the idea of becoming an action-oriented president, he has not refrained from making promises while campaigning.

Speaking to MEE, Koray Caliskan at Bogazici University Political Science Department stated that Ihsanoglu's statements are not necessarily contradictory. "This [being an action-oriented president] depends on how you see the presidency post," he said. "Ihsanoglu previously stated that the presidency is not 'where you build roads, but where you pave the way.'"

Caliskan emphasized that the parliament currently does not, but also can no longer function as it should. "Half of the MPs do what they are told to do by the PM, and all the draft legislations brought by the other half are automatically refused," he said.

"All in all, Ihsanoglu wants to run the parliament in a harmonious fashion. He emphasises to do whatever he could within the constitutional authority," Caliskan argued.

The "underdog" candidate for many, Selahattin Demirtas is the embodiment of the first attempt to nationalize the region-based Kurdish political movement. After the establishment of HDP, the movement is seeking to appeal to non-Kurdish voters in central and western Turkey. To do that, Demirtas developed a similar discourse to Erdogan's, stressing the idea of a "new Turkey."

Ferhat Kentel at Istanbul Sehir University Sociology Department explores the idea of a "new Turkey". He argues that it symbolizes the desire for change within the society. He also notes that different segments of the same society perceive the underlying idea with differing, but complementary interpretations.

"What I understand from the 'new Turkey' notion is a country in which there is no tutelage, Kemalist ideology or state-centric views," he told MEE. "This is I think how Demirtas sees it." In contrast "AKP is the Islamist aspect of the idea of 'new Turkey.'"

He believes that the flag-bearer of the change is not AKP or Erdogan, but it is the Kurdish movement, combined with the demands of the Gezi Park protestors. Kentel further argued that "The values that are symbolized in Demirtas' discourse are represented mostly by these two masses; we could say that we have an alternative now."

However, Kentel does not think that the HDP candidate could achieve a massive victory in the short run. "Demirtas is playing the same 'promise game' that Erdogan plays. He wants to show who he is through his promises. He bases his discourse on women's rights, minorities, the Soma mining tragedy, Gezi Park protesters' demands, and administrative decentralisation." he told MEE.

The favourite candidate, and architect behind the popular presidential voting, PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that it is time for the next step.

Should Erdogan be elected, he wants to further advance the ongoing policies of his party, broadly in four areas: consolidation of democracy, completion of political and social normalisation, generation of greater prosperity for Turkey's society, and developing to become a leader among nations.

Erdogan emphasises writing a brand new constitution. The 1982 constitution, which was prepared under the conditions of the post-coup environment of early 1980s does not meet current societal demands in areas like individual rights and freedoms. The drafting of a new civil constitution that would guarantee individual rights and freedoms stalled in 2013.

Moreover, referring to completion of ongoing projects and finalization of change at all levels of the society as well as within the state, he emphasizes on the centennial of the Republic of Turkey, which is 2023. Should he be elected, he can stay in power for two terms at most, each of them being five years, and thus will be in power till then.

A new AKP in the post-Erdogan period?

According to the latest opinion polls, Erdogan is leading with more than 50 percent of the votes after an equal distribution of undecided votes. Winning the election on the first round is a fancy of all candidates, but the PM seems more likely to achieve this.

Winning the election in the first round would obviously provide a confidence boost for Erdogan and AKP, but commentators argue that one should explore with care whether this confidence is deserved. Kadri Gursel, a prominent columnist at Milliyet newspaper, thinks that there are several scenarios that would affect the post-election period.

"It all depends on the turnout rate," Gursel told MEE. "If the [turnout] rate is low and Erdogan easily secures more than 50 percent of the votes, this might not mean much, as it would be difficult to draw conclusions from this result with regard to the upcoming general elections in 2015," he argued.

However, he further adds that if the turnout rate is high in a possible first round victory, Erdogan might consider early general elections, in line with the developments in the post-presidential election period.

Hatem Ete, the Political Research Coordinator of the Ankara based think tank SETA Foundation argues that there are two opinions within the AK Party camp regarding a possible early general election. However, he thinks that no matter the outcome of the presidential election, it would not affect the timing of the general elections.

"If Erdogan wins the presidential election, then the debates on who will be the interim PM will take at least a month," Ete told MEE. "If you add three or four months for campaigning prior to the general elections, this leaves us with only four to five months. This period could be a good opportunity to evaluate the performance of the interim prime minister."

Indeed, should Erdo?an become the next president of Turkey, the prime minister post will be filled by an AKP candidate till the 2015 general elections. The interim prime minister is expected to lead the party to the next elections and he/she is also expected to become the chairperson of AKP. Due to the self-restricting three terms rule of the party, the PM's closest circle, who have been members of parliament for the last three terms, will not be able to lead the party in this interim period.

The future of outgoing president Abdullah Gul's comes to the fore at this point. Two factors accentuate Gul's importance. On one hand, Gul is someone that Erdogan trusts, and with whom he has worked in harmony for many years; especially considering almost all of Erdogan's closest aides will have to take a break by 2015.

On the other hand, Erdogan repeatedly declared that he envisions a powerful and visionary leader to take over the party and become the next prime minister. For Ete, Erdogan wants to work with this person in harmony, and does not see this person to become a mere puppet.

However, who this person will be remains uncertain. Gul previously signaled that he might return to active politics, should the conditions are convenient. Presently it seems very early to speculate on his future moves.

Hatem Ete thinks that the ground rules for the next prime minister are already set, and he does not expect this to change depending on the vote counts. "Rather than the vote distribution of the presidential election, I believe it is only when we witness a significant drop in AKP votes in the general election, that the next leader could lose his/her seat," he said.

Contrastingly, Kadri Gursel believes that Erdogan wants to keep his position as the coordinator between the party and the government, and that he does not really desire Gul to become the next chairperson of AKP. "No matter how many votes Erdogan gets in the [presidential] election, the percentage would not matter. I think Erdogan already made up his mind, and Gul is not in that picture," he stressed.

However, in line with Ete's remarks, Gursel thinks that only when AKP votes significantly drop in the next general elections, Gul's return to the party might become an option.

All of these calculations depend on the practical reflection of Erdogan's actions as the President of Turkey. The extent to which he can exercise his powers depends on the future changes in the political system.

A constitutional impasse?

If Erdogan wants to enjoy president-like powers, Turkey should adopt a new constitution. The likelihood of this after the 2015 general elections is directly linked to the distribution of the parliamentary seats. In the last general elections in 2011, AKP could not gain the 330 seats required to change the constitution even though it acquired more than 49 percent of the votes.

"Erdogan will try to change the constitution, depending on the results of the next general elections," Koray Caliskan told MEE. "But this means that AKP needs to exceed 50 percent, reaching 330 seats. This I find highly unlikely."

Caliskan argues that Erdogan must change the constitution to adopt a presidential system, but the PM currently worries about not being able to win in the first round. For him, this would hint at a potential outcome of Erdogan-less general election results.

Gursel agrees with Caliskan and he does not expect AKP to acquire a parliamentary majority to change the constitution.

Ete does not think that Erdogan would try to eliminate the constitutional constraints to exercise more executive powers unless a new constitution is made. "He [Erdogan] would respect his constitutional powers and would act within its boundaries," he said.

"We could expect a president elected with popular vote to be active and powerful, but when it comes to power sharing, I do not think Turkey would face any crises."