US post-war Gaza plans collide with President Biden’s faltering campaign
Arab Gulf states are hedging their bets on Donald Trump’s return to the White House, telling the former president’s surrogates they are waiting in the wings for his new administration, in an unexpected hitch to the Biden administration's Middle East diplomacy.
The Gulf states’ calm response to poll numbers indicating that Trump’s chances of returning to the White House are rising stands in sharp contrast to the panic among some of the US’s European allies who are on edge over how Trump will handle the Nato alliance and Russia’s war on Ukraine.
“It’s a tale of two partners,” Gregory Gause, an expert on Gulf politics at Texas A&M University, told Middle East Eye. “The Europeans and Gulf states both experienced a Trump term. For the former it was a disaster, but for the latter it was pretty good,” he said.
“They know exactly what they are going to get and aren't worried."
The Biden administration has a cluster of open files with the oil-rich Gulf states. The most urgent revolves around reaching a ceasefire in Gaza and crafting a plan for post-war governance of the enclave.
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The administration’s approach is twofold. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk and CIA director Bill Burns are in the region pushing for a hostage deal that will transition to a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, while Biden’s trusted aid, Amos Hochstein, is tasked with mediating an end to fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.
If the shooting stops, it would be a tactical win, giving the administration time to craft a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel. To bring Riyadh on board, the US is negotiating an agreement on nuclear energy, a security pledge and expedited arms deals, former US officials confirmed to MEE.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington and Riyadh "could be weeks away" from concluding the talks in May, but for Saudi Arabia to normalise ties with Israel, the latter would need to back a credible pathway to a Palestinian state.
That already posed a serious challenge, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resisting the move. Biden’s poor debate performance and growing calls within the Democratic Party for him to step aside add a new complication, analysts say.
Riyadh wants the US to commit to a defence treaty to address its concerns about the US’s staying power in the region.
The Trump and Biden administrations both contributed to Saudi Arabia’s unease about its ally’s commitment to regional security.
In 2019, the Trump administration stood aside after an attack blamed on Iran hit the kingdom's Aramco oil facilities, knocking out nearly half of Saudi Arabia's daily oil production.
Biden stoked Saudi Arabia’s fears more when he pledged to make the kingdom a “pariah” over human rights issues. Under his watch, the US later pulled Patriot missile defence systems from Saudi Arabia.
'Saudi Arabia ready for deal'
Abdullah Baabood, a non-resident scholar at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, told MEE that the Biden administration’s efforts to rebuild the partnership and Riyadh’s decision to restore diplomatic ties with Iran do not mean the kingdom has dropped fears about its vulnerability - hence Saudia Arabia's focus on a defence treaty.
'Saudi Arabia is desperate because they see Iran becoming more powerful and popular'
- Abdullah Baabood, Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
“Saudi Arabia is ready for a deal no matter who gives it to them. They are desperate because they see Iran becoming more powerful and popular because of the Gaza war,” he said.
“So, they will cooperate with any administration that promises a defence treaty.”
But Biden would likely need to rally support for a defence treaty in the Senate, a tall order when his party is split on whether he should even move forward as their nominee.
“At the end of the day, Saudi Arabia will view a defence agreement as a win for themselves. They won’t say 'we will wait for Trump or Biden to sign it',” Elizabeth Dent, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told MEE.
“But it’s clear at this stage that none of this is going to work through Congress before the November elections,” she said.
'Bring Trump back'
While the US’s European partners quickly embraced Biden after his election victory, Gulf states always kept the door open to his predecessor. Jared Kushner, Trump’s Middle East negotiator and son-in-law, and his wife, Ivanka Trump, were hosted by Qatari officials at the 2022 World Cup.
The Trump Organization, which is managed by the former president's sons, Donald Jr and Eric, has announced real estate deals in Oman and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the state-owned sovereign wealth fund chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also invested $2bn in Kushner’s hedge fund, Affinity Partners. Qatar and the UAE made smaller investments.
“When Gulf states talk to Trump, it's seen as nefarious somehow, but when Nato countries approach Trump surrogates, the story is they are trying to find common ground. It’s biased,” an Arab diplomat told MEE.
And to be sure, Gulf states are reaching out, officials who once staffed Trump’s White House say.
“I know people the Saudis have spoken to, and they are very frustrated and want Trump to come back,” Fred Fleitz, the former chief of staff for the National Security Council under Trump's administration, told MEE.
If Biden is viewed as a lame-duck president, it could frustrate his administration’s ability to cajole and coax Gulf states and other Middle East allies to make the difficult decisions Washington needs them to make.
The Biden administration wants Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.
“I don’t think the Israelis will want to lift a finger for the Biden administration,” Fleitz said.
Stalling?
During the US presidential debate in June, Trump accused Biden of not giving Israel free rein to fight in Gaza.
"Israel is the one that wants to keep going, and you should let them go and let them finish the job," he said.
The Biden administration has widely backed Israel’s offensive on the Gaza Strip, but Biden has criticised the high Palestinian death toll.
The Biden administration is leaning on Gulf states to help provide security and reconstruction for the besieged Gaza Strip.
Middle East Eye reported that Bahrain - a close ally of Saudi Arabia - has expressed a willingness to deploy peacekeepers to Gaza. Much of Bahrain’s police force is staffed with Jordanians, some of whom are of Palestinian descent.
Although the Arab League endorsed sending an international force to Gaza under a UN mandate, any deployment to Gaza following Israel’s devastating offensive will be extremely unpopular with Arab populations widely supportive of the Palestinian cause.
“The Biden administration is not going to be able to make progress on post-war Gaza planning in the next four months because, if it looks like Trump’s prospects of winning are increased, Israel’s government will stall concessions and the Gulf states will hesitate,” Gause said.
“Why do something for Biden if Trump is going to get elected?”
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