Burhan and Abiy's secretive talks signal shifting Ethiopian position on Sudan
When Abiy Ahmed touched down in Port Sudan last week, Sudanese army chief Abdul Fattah al-Burhan made a point of driving the Ethiopian prime minister through the wartime capital himself.
It was an unusual step. But Abiy was the first foreign leader to visit Burhan since Sudan’s war broke out in April 2023 and his arrival came after months of tensions between Burhan’s military-dominated government and Ethiopia.
Notably only one translator accompanied the men in their car. The lack of advisors or ministers in the vehicle prompted speculation that the talks between the leaders – who both have plenty of experience fighting civil wars – had a somewhat secretive, even spicy, nature.
Abiy’s visit came a few days after two major developments: first, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which Burhan’s military is battling, had seized control of large areas near the Ethiopian border in the southern Sennar state.
Second, it also came after Egypt - a rival of Ethiopia - hosted an important conference that brought together opponents and supporters of the warring parties from Sudanese civil society.
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Meanwhile, tensions brew across East Africa. Ethiopia and Somalia are in deep disagreements over the former’s relations with breakaway state Somaliland, and Kenya has been rocked by protests over tax increases. Within Ethiopia itself, the scars and unresolved issues of its own civil war remain.
Abiy and Burhan’s meeting came off the back of secret talks between their countries’ military intelligence services and foreign ministries, two sources close to the Sudanese army and Port Sudan government told Middle East Eye. The visit came at Abiy’s request, they said.
The security situation on the borders between Sudan, South Sudan and Ethiopia was one of several issues being discussed, especially after the RSF’s recent advances.
'Ethiopia is very keen to maintain its security away from the Sudanese conflict, and the conflict now is very close to its border'
- Khalid Mohamed Taha, analyst
Security on the border “has become important for Ethiopia” after the Sudanese military began intensively bombing areas recently seized by the RSF, said one of the sources, speaking on condition of anonymity as they are not authorised to speak to the media.
Since June, the RSF has seized much of fertile Sennar state, including the Moya Mountains, Singa, Dindir, al-Rahad, al-Dali al-Mazmoom and other areas close to the Ethiopian and South Sudanese borders.
According to Sudanese political analyst Khalid Mohamed Taha, Addis Ababa is trying to avoid any spillover of the war coming from Sudan, especially as the situation in Ethiopia’s Amhara and Tigray regions remains fragile.
“Ethiopia is very keen to maintain its security away from the Sudanese conflict, and the conflict now is very close to its border with Sudan, which is already hot and has unstable spots,” he told MEE.
Chief among those insecure border lands is Fashaga, a territory held by Sudan that is disputed between Khartoum and Addis Ababa.
Addressing parliament earlier this month, Abiy warned that Ethiopia would be able to seize Fashaga “in a few hours” if it wanted to, adding that Sudan was indebted to Ethiopia as it had failed to pay for electricity it had imported since the war began.
Cross-border tensions
Also on the agenda during the talks were accusations from Ethiopia that the Sudanese Armed Forces backed Tigray rebels, with similar allegations levelled at Addis Ababa over the RSF.
MEE’s sources said Abiy and Burhan agreed to make sure any support for each other’s foes would be halted, and that they would work together to stop the RSF and Tigray rebels from operating across the border.
Tigray fighters have reportedly been spotted among the SAF ranks, including in Port Sudan.
Foreign fighters from South Sudan, Libya and other countries, meanwhile, have also been captured by Sudanese soldiers during battles with the RSF.
MEE’s sources said the Abiy-Burhan meeting poses questions for Eritrea. Asmara has supported both the Ethiopian government and the Sudanese military in their civil conflicts. It has also hosted armed groups from eastern Sudan and Darfur that are supportive of the Sudanese military.
According to the sources, Eritrea has treated the Ethiopia-Sudan rapprochement with suspicion, thinking it could shift the balance of power in the region, and this might prompt Eritrea to host armed eastern Sudanese tribal groups to increase its leverage.
“The situation in the entire region is very alarming, not just on Sudan but the situation in Ethiopia is also fragile. Both the Ethiopian and Sudanese leaders have great interest in stopping the likely regional escalation and regional wars,” the second source said.
The sources also said the talks discussed the possibility of allowing aid to flow into Sudan through Ethiopia.
Ethiopian political analyst Anwar Ibrahim believes Abiy’s visit is focused on security, adding that the trip has succeeded in de-escalating tensions. Relations have been sour since July 2023, when Abiy called for a no-fly zone over Sudan to be imposed, which would be disastrous for the Sudanese military, which has relied on its air power.
Ibrahim noted that Sudanese-Ethiopian relations have a long history of ups and downs, so when the need comes to cool tensions for mutual benefits, the two sides can come together quickly.
“Especially as they currently need to stop the rebel activities in the two countries and work together in different fields. Sudan, particularly, is facing extreme international and regional pressures to go back to the peace talks,” Ibrahim, a specialist in Sudanese-Ethiopian issues, told MEE.
“The timing of this visit is crucial for the two countries, who are facing mutual security and political difficulties.”
Regional competition
The visit also comes few days after the Egyptian government-sponsored peace conference in Cairo on 5 and 6 July.
The talks brought together civilian political leaders that oppose the Sudanese military and former rebel groups that once fought the army but were now supportive of it in its battle against the RSF. No breakthroughs were achieved.
A Sudanese political analyst, who preferred not to be named, said Ethiopia has decided to intervene in Sudan to counter Egypt’s influence, part of their regional rivalry.
The analyst noted arguments about the share of Nile waters and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project that threatens Egypt’s water supply, as well as Addis Ababa’s controversial plan to build a port in Somaliland and competition within the African Union have stoked the rivalry.
“So, Sudan, which is located in the middle of the two countries, is also very important for the national security of the two sides,” the analyst said.
Sudanese analyst Taha believes the RSF’s push into areas bordering Ethiopia has changed the dynamic of the war and pushed Addis Ababa into changing its tactics and priorities.
“Ethiopia has changed the tone towards the Sudanese issue, as it has previously stuck with considering it an internal crisis and maintained a neutral stance. But now it’s directly intervening in Sudan in order to contain the war’s probable expansion and the threat to Ethiopia itself, as well as the region,” Taha told MEE.
Meanwhile, Taha said, Egypt has been engaging with the Somaliland issue, with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi speaking to his Somali counterpart, “putting more pressure on Addis Ababa, which has great interests in Somaliland.
“Ethiopia is also worried about the rapprochement between Djibouti and opposition groups in Somaliland,” he said.
Ethiopia is also wondering if Eritrea will intervene in the Sudanese war, he added.
“All these factors pushed Ethiopia to think twice about Sudan and it has become really worried about the expansion of the war to the region and a change in the balance of power between the regional powers and the overlap of all these interests,” he said.
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