Yahya Sinwar's killing may revive peace talks, but US sincerity and Israeli defiance raise doubts
Israel’s announcement on Thursday of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza has seemingly fuelled the US with new energy to pursue a stalled ceasefire agreement, but it faces a short window of opportunity and an emboldened ally as it looks to revive a deal.
President Joe Biden hailed the Hamas leader’s death as "a good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world", on Thursday, according to a statement published by the White House.
He then pivoted to a ceasefire which has so far not materialised despite several American proclamations that a deal was "close".
The Biden administration's reluctance to use any leverage against Israel for a ceasefire has brought into question the administration's sincerity in wanting an end to the war on Gaza.
It has also dulled perceptions of Washington's ability to influence events as escalations between Israel and Iran, and Israel's invasion of Lebanon, bring the region to the brink of an all-out war.
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"There is now the opportunity for a 'day after' in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike,” Biden said.
“Yahya Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals. That obstacle no longer exists.”
US officials are now scrambling to revive ceasefire talks that just days ago the White House said were frozen, according to one current and two former senior US officials.
'The momentum has shifted to the Lebanon war, and soon maybe an Iran war. Gaza is a sideshow and Sinwar's killing is a complication, not a show-stopper'
- Patrick Theros, former US ambassador to Qatar
“This administration believed the utility of the war diminished three or four months ago. Now they have an impetus to take another stab at talks,” David Schenker, a former US State Department official, told MEE.
President Biden’s senior advisors have already reached out to mediators Egypt and Qatar, one of the former senior officials briefed by the administration told MEE, adding that the White House could dispatch CIA chief Bill Burns back to the region in the coming weeks.
Reports emerged on Thursday that a trip to the Middle East was imminent for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
“Sinwar’s death opens the door for a possible deal. The administration is going to try and run with this to see if they can take the talks out of deadlock,” Alan Pino, a former CIA and National Intelligence Council officer for the Middle East, told MEE.
But Patrick Theros, the former US ambassador to Qatar, said the US might be too late in thinking a ceasefire can put a lid on regional tensions.
"Gaza is rapidly becoming an irrelevant victim. The momentum has shifted to the Lebanon war, and soon maybe an Iran war. Gaza is a sideshow and Sinwar's killing is a complication, not a show-stopper," Theros told MEE.
Plan B?
Sinwar’s death is an opportunity for the Biden administration, but it could also serve as a moment of clarity.
For one year, the US provided intelligence to help Israel find and kill Sinwar. "I said to Bibi (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), 'Don't make the same mistake we made in America. We wanted to get bin Laden. We'll help you get Sinwar," Biden told CNN in May.
During months of ceasefire talks, the US blamed Hamas - specifically “Mr Sinwar” as US spokesmen politely but awkwardly referred to him - for standing in the way of a grand deal that could end the war in Gaza and reduce regional tensions.
“I wish I could tell you that there are fresh negotiations at hand. There aren’t, but that’s because Mr Sinwar has shown absolutely zero interest in continuing that discussion,” White House spokesperson John Kirby said on Tuesday, just 48 hours before Sinwar was killed.
Sinwar was widely considered the mastermind of the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel and had ultimate control over fighters and hostages in Gaza. He was named Hamas leader after Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in July.
Analysts and regional officials tell MEE that Sinwar was a hardline negotiator who believed the mass civilian death toll in Gaza and flareup in regional tensions were blows to Israel’s standing on the world stage and security. He felt little urgency to end the war if it wasn’t on his terms.
“Sinwar always had the final say. It is true,” Merissa Khurma, an expert at the Wilson Center told MEE. “But if the Biden administration knew he was the obstacle, now is the time that we should see their plan B. Who was their alternative path to a deal?”
No surrender?
While the Biden administration blamed Sinwar for a lack of progress on a ceasefire, in reality, it has been Israel that has regularly reneged in the talks and added demands that analysts say may be impossible for Hamas - under any leader - to agree on.
Inside Gaza, Israel insisted on its military retaining the ability to operate at will, even if the remaining hostages taken on 7 October 2023 were to be returned by Hamas.
Netanyahu also demanded Israel maintain control of two key slivers of land: the Philadelphi Corridor, a 14km strip of land between Gaza and Egypt that Israel said Hamas has used to smuggle weapons, and the Netzarim Corridor, a narrow zone that Israel carved out to separate northern and southern Gaza.
“There are certain red lines for Hamas with or without Sinwar,” Michael Wahid Hanna, US programme director at the International Crisis Group said, which included a "permanent Israeli occupation of Gaza".
“I think it would be mistaken to think that a weakened Hamas will accept any form of surrender,” he added.
'I think it would be mistaken to think that a weakened Hamas will accept any form of surrender'
- Michael Wahid Hanna, International Crisis Group
While Hamas has still demonstrated its ability to strike Israeli troops and launch missiles, analysts say it is not the same fighting force it was before the 7 October 2023 attack, and Sinwar’s death will have an operational, not just symbolic, impact.
With US arms flowing regularly to Israel and the 2024 US presidential election just three weeks away, the fate of ceasefire talks is likely to rest on Hamas’s calculations.
“Strategically, Hamas does not want to end this thing on Israel's terms, but for tactical reasons, they may now be more willing to look at a pause that will help them regroup and would be popular with Palestinians,” Pino said.
Several Hamas leaders have been killed in the past, like its founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, while others like Ismail Haniyeh, Marwan Issa and Mohammed Deif were reportedly killed during the current war.
Often hardline leaders have emerged in their shadows and succession plans have been in place to prevent severe factionalisation, leading to doubts about the operational impact of removing leadership figures.
Sinwar vacuum
The last serious attempt to broker a ceasefire was in July when CIA director Bill Burns met with Qatari, Israeli and Egyptian officials in Rome. Shortly after that meeting, Israel assassinated Haniyeh in Tehran and within one month had taken out most of Hezbollah’s senior leadership. Israel has now invaded Lebanon.
“The regional situation has only complicated Gaza talks. The US would not be doing this in a vacuum. The situation from a few months ago has changed with a war in Lebanon and impending Israeli strike on Iran,” Khurma said.
Israel expanded the war in Gaza to Lebanon amid frustration that Hezbollah insisted on linking a truce with Israel to a ceasefire in Gaza. The Lebanese group began firing missiles into Israel on 8 October 2023, in what it said was in solidarity with Palestinians.
'The regional situation has only complicated Gaza talks...with a war in Lebanon and impending Israeli strike on Iran'
- Merissa Khurma, the Wilson Center
“The same security establishment in Israel pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza wants to prosecute the war in Lebanon,” Hanna said.
“Now we could be in a twisted scenario, where the question is: will Hamas decouple itself from Hezbollah and the Lebanon front?” Hanna added.
For its part, Israel welcomed Sinwar’s death with celebrations in the streets on Thursday night.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took a victory lap, saying that Sinwar’s death in Rafah was a vindication of his government's decision to launch a deadly attack on Rafah in May, despite an outcry from rights organisations, the US and Israel’s Arab neighbours.
“The war... is not over yet,” he said, suggesting that Israel could look to use the momentum of Sinwar’s killing to justify its offensive further.
But Netanyahu also suggested Israel was considering its mission to kill Hamas’s senior leadership complete. Addressing rank and file fighters, he said: "Whoever lays down his weapon and returns our hostages - we will allow him to go on living.”
Analysts say it's not clear who will succeed Sinwar. The two most likely candidates are Khalil al-Hayya, his Gaza deputy, and former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal, who resides in Qatar. Sinwar's brother, Muhammad Sinwar, is also a commander on the ground.
Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli intelligence official, says that Hamas could end up with a more malleable leader, but it's still an open question whether the Israeli government can be moderated.
“If the vacuum of his death is filled with a leader from outside, Hamas could be more flexible. The other question is Israeli politics, and it’s not so simple for Netanyahu to convince members of his government to support a deal,” Milshtein told MEE.
Still, with a tight US election only a few weeks away, some analysts say if Hamas agrees to some of Israel’s demands, Netanyahu could agree to a ceasefire.
Netanyahu faces an unusual US threat to withhold arms to Israel over the humanitarian crisis in northern Gaza and he may also want a ceasefire, even a partial one to begin the process of negotiating Gaza’s post-war future with the next US administration.
“Even if Hamas is amenable to a ceasefire, is there a leader in Gaza who could deliver the hostages back to Israel? That is not clear at this time,” Schenker, the former US State Department official, told MEE.
“And, of course, Israel will not give Hamas or the PA a free hand in running the Rafah border crossing.”
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