Has Ukraine helped the Syrian rebel offensive in Aleppo?
The Syrian rebels' stunning offensive and capture of Aleppo has sparked rumours that Ukraine played a role in helping plan the operation against the Russian-allied Damascus government.
Over the years, Ukrainian intelligence has leaked videos allegedly showing sabotage and attacks targeting Russians based in northern Syria.
These attacks often involved first-person-view (FPV) "kamikaze" drones, a technology Ukraine has excelled in using since the 2022 Russian invasion.
Many observers in Turkey believe the use of FPV drones has given Syrian opposition fighters a significant advantage against Bashar al-Assad's forces over recent days.
These drones allowed rebels to target beyond the firing line, rendering armoured vehicles ineffective through coordinated assaults and causing frontlines to collapse.
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A prominent pro-Kremlin Telegram account even compared the surprise attack to Ukraine’s Kursk operation, which captured a large chunk of Russian territory in an unexpected offensive in August.
'We might claim less than a fraction of help for this offensive'
- Ukrainian official
For the past year, Russian officials have repeatedly accused Ukraine of providing FPV drones to Syrian rebels in Idlib and training fighters from Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the former al-Qaeda affiliate that is leading the latest offensive.
Alexander Lavrentiev, Russia's presidential envoy for Syria, recently claimed that Moscow had evidence of specialists from the Defence Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine (GUR) operating in Idlib.
According to Lavrentyev, these Ukrainian specialists had been teaching HTS fighters how to manufacture drones themselves.
Other Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the Syrian government-affiliated newspaper al-Watan, have also previously alleged ongoing contacts between Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's GUR, and HTS. These allegations include the deployment of Ukrainian intelligence assets to Idlib.
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However, several sources downplayed Ukraine’s influence, if there is any, on the Aleppo offensive.
A Turkish source familiar with the situation told Middle East Eye that HTS does not rely on Ukrainian assistance to acquire or develop FPV drones, as the black market offers plenty of alternatives, including smuggling from Turkey.
Although Turkish officials deny any involvement in the operation, there are indications that Ankara played a key role in the planning stages of the rebel campaign. “There are many kamikaze drone producers in the region and in Turkey,” said the source.
Cihat Arpacik, editor-in-chief of Intelligence Report magazine and a longtime correspondent in Syria, believes Syrian rebel battalions, such as the Falcon (al-Shaheen) Brigade, do not require significant external help to conduct such attacks.
“The Falcon Brigade has been using and developing drones for the past 10 years,” Arpacik told MEE. “They can import spare parts from China and other areas, and now use turbojet drones.”
A Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that there had been engagements between Kyiv and Syrian rebels over the past year.
However, the official claimed Ukraine’s contribution to the offensive was minimal. “We might claim less than a fraction of help for this offensive,” the official said.
Interestingly, Rybar, a Telegram account considered close to the Russian defence ministry, echoed this sentiment.
“Firstly, GUR members did visit Idlib, but they stayed there for only a short time - not enough to train UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] operators from scratch,” the account said.
'HTS has long had its own UAV programme, with militants showing off a jet aircraft as far back as 2023'
- Rybar, Russian Telegram account
“Secondly, HTS has long had its own UAV programme, with militants showing off a jet aircraft as far back as 2023. Attack drones have ceased to be unique or inaccessible without outside help - even rebels in Myanmar use them.”
Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute think tank, says rumours of Ukrainian intelligence being involved in the rebel offensive resemble reports that Kyiv helped Tuareg rebels in Mali defeat the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group.
Both stories were blown out of proportion, he said.
Mardasov noted that "usual intelligence contacts" between Ukraine and the Tuareg rebels, prompted by Wagner's backing of the Malian government, "were passed off as deep Ukrainian ties with rebel factions".
“Of course, Ukrainian intelligence had contacts with a number of opposition groups in Idlib, but this cooperation was limited to that.”
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