An international coalition against Islamic State: regional considerations

Turkey

What they say: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned that the number of Turkish hostages held by the group has made him cautious about making any rash moves.

Recent reports say that 49 Turkish nationals are being held by IS, though Erdogan publicly gave a far higher estimate.

“No one should expect me to provoke IS...Eighty of our citizens are being held by a group," he said.

"They expect us to make provocative statements regarding this group. They expect us to approach the fire with a stoker in hand.”

New Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has also played down the threat from IS and has been wary of labeling the group 'terrorists."

"There are Sunni Arabs, there are a significant amount of Turkmens [...] if Sunni Arabs had not been excluded in Iraq, the provinces of Mosul and Anbar would not be in such a rage today," he said.

"Like in Syria if there had not been a government of a group representing 12 percent of society then it would not have been like this and these things would not have happened. There is a community whose rage has built up to a considerable extent.”

What's at stake: NATO member Turkey openly joined the anti-IS coalition but is believed to be wary of involving itself in direct military activity. Ankara has allowed the use of the ?ncirlik airbase for humanitarian and strategic purposes, but not for conducting military strikes.

Former Prime Minister (now President) Recep Tayyip Erdogan is staunchly opposed to the Assad regime and has left the border between Syria and Turkey largely porous, allowing both refugees to flow out and foreign fighters to flow in, although there have been recent moves to tighten security.

There has been speculation as to what the real relationship between Turkey and IS is, but the primary reason given for the hesitancy over military intervention is the high number of Turkish citizens currently held hostage by the group.

Iran

What they say: President Hassan Rouhani has hinted at cooperation with the US saying that “all countries need to embark on joint effort regarding terrorism" while pointing out that "at the moment, it's the government of Iraq and the people of Iraq that are fighting terrorism...we have not seen the US do anything for now." He also added that "any time the Americans start to take action against terrorist groups, we can consider that.”

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has also critiqued US inactivity over the IS threat: “Owing to their double-standards, the Americans have not been so serious in fighting the Islamic State up until today; they supported Islamic State in Syria in different forms for a long time and now cannot decide what to do with the slogans they have chanted for such a long time.”

What's at stake: IS are fundamentally opposed to Shiites, viewing them as heretics, and have been accused of engaging in ethnic cleansing against them and other minorities. Consequently, Iranian officials have come to regard the ‘Takfiri’ IS an existential threat and have rallied to support Shiite communities and institutions in Iraq.

Military collaboration with the US would be major geopolitical shift as the two countries have been staunch opponents for many years. However, negotiations over a nuclear deal have been broadly constructive and Iran’s position as one of the most stable countries in the region is making it appear a more attractive potential partner for the US. Casual discussions have taken place over the issue and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has authorised collaborating on military strikes with the US.

Syria

What they say: Syria's foreign minister Wallid Muallem has expressed an interest in cooperate with the US to fight IS, describing Syria as "the centre of the international coalition to fight Islamic State".

The deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad has said that "the only way to resolve the situation is to work with president Assad" and has hit out at claims that Syria has not been fully immersed in fighting the group (whom he grouped together with other opposition fighters):

"To those who claim that Syria is not doing its best to combat this group, I answer that if these extremists - Jabhat al-Nusra, the Free [Syrian] Army and IS - are killing themselves and fighting for more influence and expansion, do you think we are sad? But the Syrian army has its priorities and we shall decide what to do next."

What's at stake: IS is one of the groups committed to overthrowing Assad in Syria and the group arguably has the most effective fighters on the ground, making it a serious threat. However, many have noted that, until recently, direct conflict between the Syrian government and IS was sporadic, with some even suggesting collaboration between the two.

Clashes between the two sides have intensified in recent weeks though and are expected to continue as IS has made it clear that it views the the Assad government - dominated by the Alawite sect - as heretical with fears heigh that IS could pose an existential threat to Syria's minorities.

Some voices have also suggested that Assad and the US could now have their interests aligned, but US officials have so far firmly ruled out any cooperation, arguing that Assad is part of the problem. The latest news is that the US may strike IS in Syria without the Syrian government's permission.

Saudi Arabia

What they say: Saudi Arabia has been keenly urging for an international coalition against IS and its most senior religious cleric has branded the group “enemy number one of Islam.”

King Abdullah has recently warned the group “will reach Europe in a month and America in another month” if it is not urgently confronted by “the broadest possible coalition of nations”. Domestically he has vowed not to “allow a handful of terrorists, using Islam for personal aims, to terrify Muslims or undermine our country and its inhabitants.”

Riyadh has faced accusations of tacitly funding the IS by turning a blind eye to private donations to the group from within the kingdom, although the country's rulers have consistently refuted these accusations. 

What's at stake: There appears to be a swell of support for the IS among Saudi Arabia’s citizens. 95 percent of mentions on the hashtags #TheAgeofTheISISConquest and #ABillionMuslimsForTheVictoryofTheISIS have emanated from the kingdom, according to Vocativ.

Pro-IS slogans have been graffitied on buildings across the country, which commentators have cited as evidence of strong domestic support for the group and a potential source of backlash should the rulers directly contribute to military attacks in Syria and Iraq.

UAE

What they say: The UAE has firmly stated its support for an international coalition and denounced what it describes as a rising tide of “radical ideology” in the region.

“No one has more at stake than the UAE and other moderate countries in the region that have rejected the regressive Islamist creed and embraced a different, forward-looking path,” Yousef al-Otaiba, the Emirates’ US ambassador, recently wrote in a column for the Wall Street Journal.

He said the Emiratis are “ready to join the international community in an urgent, coordinated and sustained effort to confront a threat that will, if unchecked, have global ramifications for decades to come.”

What's at stake: The UAE has a massive arsenal of weapons and is currently the world’s fourth largest arms importer. While the tiny Gulf State has never been engaged in open conflict since independence in 1971, reports recently emerged alleging that Abu Dhabi carried out air strikes in Libya.

The Emiratis have sporadically announced the uncovering of al-Qaeda linked plots to commit terror attacks in their country and rounded up groups of individuals they accuse of funding such groups fighting in the Syrian civil war.

Qatar

What they say: Qatar has not publicly stated its position on supporting an international coalition but has moved to deny reports it has given financial support to the IS.

“Qatar does not support extremist groups, including IS, in any way,” said a recent statement by Foreign Minister Khaled al-Attiyah. “We are repelled by their views, their violent methods and their ambitions.”

Yet Doha has been consistently accused by the US of being connected to Sunni Muslim militant groups with a Wikileaks cable dated from 2009 stating that Qatar had been “largely passive” when cooperating with attempts to cut regional terrorist funding.

What's at stake: Qatar is host to the American run al-Udeid air base, which has been used to launch missions over Iraq in recent weeks. It is not clear if these missions have involved reconnaissance flights or air strikes against IS.

Qatar is currently in the midst of a local struggle among Gulf States. While Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have vehemently fought against the rise of Islamist groups in the region, Doha has provided direct support for the Muslim Brotherhood and others, since the Arab revolutions erupted in 2011.

Israel

What they say: Israel has been supportive of an international coalition to fight the Islamic State without declaring specific or direct involvement in the coalition.

Finance Minister Yair Lapid, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet, told a conference hosted by the IDC Herzliya college near Tel Aviv that Israel should "build a coalition of sanity" in which Israeli intelligence "is part of the regional effort" against Islamic State, Lebanon's Hezbollah group and al-Qaida.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said on Tuesday that the UN should set up a permanent coalition to fight a “world of terrorism,” not only Islamic State, reported the Jerusalem Post. He welcomed the US initiative to “take things into its hands and organise the coalition against [Islamic State].”

What’s at stake: Israel has been worried that Islamic State could eventually reach its borders, especially now that violence in the Golan Heights has escalated over the past several weeks, with militants seizing the strategic Quneitra border crossing.

Israel has provided satellite imagery and other intelligence in support of the US-led aerial campaign against Islamic State in Iraq, Reuters reported.

Egypt

What they say: Egypt has been supportive of the anti-IS coalition, seeing it as part of a wider struggle to push back political and other Islamists in the region. Egypt has waged a fierce crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood and more militant Islamic groups in the country and across its borders since the military takeover in July 2013.

Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shukri has welcomed the meeting taking place in Jeddah Thursday. "The crimes of IS require a coalition among the different states to thoroughly get rid of the terrorist threat posed by the IS," he said Wednesday.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has expressed concerns about militants over the Libyan frontier. Security officials say these groups are inspired by Islamic State.

"There is definitely coordination between Ansar, the militants in Libya and Islamic State leaders, Egyptian security officials have said.

What’s at stake: In Egypt IS militants have played into the authorities' discourse of curbing rights and freedoms in the name of fighting terrorism. Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, which has claimed responsibility for several terrorist attacks killing members of Egypt's security forces in the last year, is reportedly being instructed by IS on effective military methods.

These reports have raised concerns in Egypt, where authorities are battling Ansar as well as militants who have capitalised on the chaos in post-Gaddafi Libya to gain a foothold over the border.

Ansar recently said it had beheaded four Egyptians, accusing them of providing Israel with intelligence for an air strike that killed three of its fighters. Four headless corpses were found in the Sinai Peninsula. It was the first time that any decapitations had been made public in Egypt, reported Reuters.

Jordan

What they say: Jordan is actively supportive of the anti-IS international coalition led by the US. It has received US Secretary of State John Kerry during his trip to build the coalition ahead of US President Barack Obama’s address Wednesday night which revealed details of the plan.

Jordan’s Information Minister, Mohamed al-Momani has made statements that his country faces a terrorism and internal security risk from IS and is therefore cooperating with allies to fight IS.

Jordan has formed a special task force to deal with the possible threats from the Islamic State militants within the country. King Abdullah II has reportedly assigned Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour to head the committee, according to the Times of Israel.

However, 21 MPs in the Jordanian parliament sent a memorandum to parliament speaker demanding “the government not involve Jordan (in the fight) against the Islamic State.”

What’s at stake: IS has captured vast territories in Jordan’s neighbouring Iraq and Syria and many believe the Hashemite Kingdom may be its next target. The Jordanian security forces have recently arrested 71 militants from IS and the al-Nusra Front inside Jordan.

Graffiti and black flags in support of the Islamic State are a common sight in Jordan’s southern city of Ma’an.

Bahrain

What they say: At the end of August, Bahrain’s Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs denounced IS, warning that their actions “sully the image of Islam.” The council stressed that funding or supporting the group is forbidden.

Their first official comment on the group came on the same day as the six Gulf Cooperation Council states met to condemn IS.

What’s at stake: Bahraini authorities have responded with alarm to isolated expressions of support for the group among its citizens – the owners of seven cars carrying stickers supportive of the IS were apprehended in mid-August.

Although Bahrain has not been officially announced as being among the 40 members of the anti-IS coalition, the UK is planning to open three new air bases in the region, including one in Bahrain. The planned base is part of an expanded presence in the region to help tackle terrorism.

Kuwait

What they say: Kuwait has said little on the record about the IS threat. Their first official statement came as GCC members met at the end of August when Kuwait Foreign Minister Sabah Khaled al-Sabbah said that: “we denounce vehemently the practices of those who use Islam as a pretext to kill and displace en masse Iraqis and Syrians.”

Kuwait also sent 50 trucks of aid to refugees forced from their homes in Iraq in mid-July

What’s at stake: Kuwait has announced that it will be part of the global anti-IS coalition, promising $10 mn in military aid to the campaign. It has interests in stabilising Iraq-Kuwaiti relations, with media publishing a flurry of reports in early August after a Twitter account posing as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi threatened to invade the country.

Kuwaiti interests extend further than just avoiding spillover. A Kuwaiti energy company prospecting for oil in Iraq said in late August they were “encouraged” by recent gains against IS in Iraq, and said the violence was temporary and would not affect energy security long-term. The same company on Wednesday announced that they had discovered a new source of oil in the southern city of Basra.