Iran election: Private Republican Guard polling shows Pezeshkian clear favourite
Private Republican Guard polling shows reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian in the clear lead in Iran’s presidential election, which takes place on Friday.
The poll, which is not public but has been seen by Middle East Eye, predicts Pezeshkian taking 37 percent of the vote. That would make him favourite to win in a runoff against the second-placed candidate.
Out of the five candidates running in the election, called after the sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month, Pezeshkian is the only person from the reformist camp. All the others are considered conservatives.
The most prominent conservative candidates, Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, are eating away at each other’s support and refusing to withdraw, despite the pleas of senior conservatives seeking a unity candidate.
This division has persisted even as the two other conservative candidates, Ali Reza Zakani and Amir Hossein Qaazi Zadeh, dropped out of the race, potentially signalling strategic manoeuvring within the conservative camp.
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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is one of the most powerful bodies in Iran, with influence over several aspects of society, the military and statecraft. It is dominated by principlist conservatives, often known as hardliners.
However, its polling suggests Pezeshkian is on course to win at least the first round of the election. If no candidate obtains more than 50 percent of the vote, a second round will be held on 5 July.
The Republican Guard poll chimes with public polls released by other organisations.
A poll conducted by Ferdowsi University in Mashhad shows Pezeshkian with 42.3 percent of the vote.
Qalibaf, who is a former Republican Guard commander and current speaker of parliament, is on 21.3 percent. Meanwhile, ex-nuclear negotiator Jalili is projected to take 21 percent.
The data suggests Pezeshkian appeals to a broader segment of the electorate than just reformist-leaning Iranians.
In hypothetical runoff scenarios, he appears poised for victory. If he and Jalili advance to a runoff, Pezeshkian is forecast to win with 65.5 percent of the vote, compared to Jalili's 34.5 percent. Similarly, if Pezeshkian faces Qalibaf, he would secure 59.5 percent, with Qalibaf receiving 40.5 percent.
These projections underscore Pezeshkian's robust electoral standing and the difficulties his conservative opponents face in closing the gap.
The Ferdowsi University poll also indicates that voter turnout is expected to be around 59.3 percent, reflecting a moderate level of engagement from the electorate. In 2021, all significant challengers to Raisi were barred from standing, almost guaranteeing his victory. In response, just 48 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots.
Another poll conducted by the Porshesh Institute, a polling group closely aligned with reformist interests, suggests a voter turnout ranging from 56 to 58 percent. This survey shows Pezeshkian leading with 37.5 percent of the vote, followed by Jalili at 27 percent and Qalibaf on 20.8 percent.
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