Jordan's tribes fear West Bank expulsions aimed at destabilising the kingdom
Jordan's tribes have expressed fears that Israel's near daily assaults on the occupied West Bank, and publicly announced plans to forcibly expel Palestinians, are part of an Israeli plot to transform Jordan into a Palestinian state and destabilise the Hashemite kingdom.
Late last month, Israel launched its biggest military operation in the occupied West Bank since the Second Intifada, with hundreds of Israeli soldiers attacking the cities of Jenin, Tulkarm and Tubas.
For 10 days, Israeli forces laid siege to Jenin and its refugee camp, killing dozens of Palestinians and destroying critical infrastructure.
While Israel pulled out of Jenin on Friday, Israel's military has denied it is ending operations in the occupied West Bank, where nearly three million Palestinians live under Israeli military rule.
The raids have sent tensions running high in neighbouring Jordan, which shares a 335km border with Israel and the West Bank, over Israel's publicly declared aims for the occupied territory.
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The country's foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, warned last week that any attempt by Israel to displace Palestinians to Jordanian territory would be considered a "declaration of war".
Safadi's comments came after Israel's foreign minister said his country needed to "address the threat" in the occupied West Bank "exactly as we deal with terror infrastructure in Gaza, including the temporary evacuation of Palestinian civilians and any other step needed".
'Jordan has many pressure cards on Israel, but it does not want to use them'
- Saeed Diab, Democratic Popular Unity Party
Israel Katz said that such a "temporary evacuation" would occur "in some cases of intense combat," during which Palestinians would be moved "from one neighbourhood to another within the refugee camp to prevent civilian harm".
The comments triggered widespread anger amongst several Jordanian tribes who fear that Israel might create or use conditions of war to push a large number of Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan.
Marwan Faouri, a prominent Jordanian figure in the city of As-Salt and head of the Wasatiya Forum, told Middle East Eye that Israel's actions, and the rhetoric from far-right Israeli lawmakers, posed a serious threat to Jordan's stability.
"The extreme right in Israel is seeking to expand the state's borders, and this expansion is towards Jordan, with talk of displacement becoming clearer than ever," he told MEE.
"In contrast, Jordanian policy has continued to maintain the peace agreement with Israel, but there is no longer any respect from the other party regarding Jordan's national security, because the threats have become direct to Jordan.
"Jordan has many options that it can resort to in confronting these threats, and Israel will be the biggest loser, because Jordan is an important pillar of stability in the region," he added.
Jordanian officials have been fiercely critical of the devastation wrought by Israel's offensive in Gaza, which has so far killed at least 40,970 Palestinians, according to health officials, and fuelled a humanitarian crisis in the coastal enclave.
On Sunday, in the first attack of its kind along the border with Jordan since the 7 October attacks on southern Israel, a Jordanian truck driver killed three Israelis at the Allenby Bridge in the occupied West Bank before Israeli soldiers shot him dead.
While the reasons for the attack have yet to be determined, Hael Waddan al-Dajjah, a leading figure in a major tribe in central Jordan and a former MP, warned that the soaring deaths in Gaza were triggering widespread unrest in Jordan.
"Diplomacy is the only card that Jordan has in confronting Israel, and I confirm that Jordan is also adept at using this card, especially in light of the position that King Abdullah enjoys on the international scene," he said.
"The king has warned of the dangerous Israeli escalation that also threatens the peace agreement, and Jordan may resort to reconsidering the peace agreement with Israel.
"The Jordanian foreign minister has previously spoken about Jordan preparing the necessary documents to prosecute Israel and hold it accountable for its violations of international law and the peace treaty," he added.
'A big question mark'
The soaring death tolls in both Gaza and the occupied West Bank have resulted in near-daily protests in many parts of the kingdom, but Amman still cooperates with Israel on security matters and was among the countries that helped Israel to fend off an Iranian missile barrage earlier this year.
Decades earlier, in the 1960s, fighters from the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) operated in the Jordan Valley, launching armed attacks on Israeli settlements before Amman forced the PLO to move its headquarters to Lebanon in the early 1970s, after violent clashes with Jordanian forces.
Since then, Jordan has secured its border with Israel, and in 1994 it became the second Arab country after Egypt to establish diplomatic relations with Israel when the two sides signed a peace treaty.
'Israeli attacks undoubtedly pose a challenge to Jordanian national security because they will make it impossible to establish a Palestinian state'
- Mohammad Abu Rumman, former minister
At the time, Jordan insisted on including a clause to guard against the possibility of mass transfer. Article 2.6 of the treaty states that "within their control, involuntary movements of persons in such a way as to adversely prejudice the security of either Party should not be permitted".
Mohammad Abu Rumman, a professor of political science at the University of Jordan and a former minister, said that the recent raids in the West Bank, including the widespread damage to critical infrastructure in Jenin, were undermining the peace deal.
"Israeli attacks undoubtedly pose a challenge to Jordanian national security because they will make it impossible to establish a Palestinian state, which puts a big question mark on the future of the West Bank, and this affects Jordan's security," he told MEE.
Jordan has a lengthy and complicated relationship with the West Bank after occupying the area and East Jerusalem in 1948 before annexing them in 1950.
Jordan offered citizenship to the Palestinians living there, including refugees, and ruled the West Bank until losing it to Israel during the 1967 war.
Although the West Bank had been formally incorporated inside the kingdom, the 1950 annexation agreement conditioned Jordanian rule as a temporary arrangement held in trust until a final resolution was found for the Palestinian issue.
Following the 1967 war, Israel encouraged Jews to settle there, providing land, military protection, electricity, water and roads. Some Israeli Jews justify settlement on religious grounds, but many Israelis consider control of the territory necessary to prevent Palestinians from attacking Israel.
Abu Rumman added that Jordanian officials were on edge, not only because of recent comments concerning the displacement of Palestinians, but also a possible return of a Donald Trump presidency.
Trump's so-called "Peace to Prosperity" plan exacerbated Jordanian concerns that Israel would retain permanent control over the West Bank, and that a solution to the Palestine cause would be imposed on Jordan, undermining its security.
Since the normalisation deals signed in 2020, Jordanians have also viewed the willingness of some Arab and Muslim states to normalise relations with Israel without progress on the Palestinian issue as a threat to the long-term stability of the Hashemite kingdom.
However, Saeed Diab, the secretary-general of Jordan's Democratic Popular Unity Party, one of the largest opposition parties in Jordan, said that with Amman a major recipient of US aid, authorities were unlikely to take a strong approach against Israel.
"The official level in Jordan is aware of the dangers of what is happening in the Palestinian territories, but unfortunately the government is dealing with indifference and lack of seriousness in confronting this aggression," he told MEE.
"The official Jordanian and Egyptian silence is closer to collusion. Jordan has many pressure cards on Israel, but it does not want to use them and wants to live in the illusion of American reassurances," he added.
MEE contacted the Jordanian foreign ministry spokesman, Sufyan Qudah, and asked him about the steps the kingdom could take in response to Israel’s actions against the Palestinians, but did not receive a response by time of publication.
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