Netanyahu’s US visit solidifies Israel’s upper hand in Washington
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet US President Joe Biden in Washington this week, despite a series of diplomatic spats between the two leaders since Israel declared war on Gaza more than nine months ago.
The Israeli prime minister's arrival comes amid growing political uncertainties about who Israel's next partner in the White House will be, after Biden bowed out of the presidential race over the course of the weekend.
As it stands, Biden's Democratic voter base disapproves heavily with his approach to Israel and its handling of the war. At the same time, Netanyahu and members of his government coalition have repeatedly criticised the White House and its hostility to its far-right government - with little consequence.
Still, experts have told Middle East Eye that despite the incessant bombardment of Gaza, and the killing of tens of thousands of Palestinians, the visit is unlikely to lad to a major impact on the US-Israel relationship.
"The way Biden sees Israel is like they are family to him. And Netanyahu can make mistakes. He can defy Biden. He can frustrate Biden. But at the end of the day, the president views Israel as family, and he will forgive the Israelis and he will give them another chance," Frank Lowenstein, special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations under President Barack Obama, told Middle East Eye.
New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch
Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters
"There have been points along the way where the Israelis have taken advantage of that, in the sense of ignoring the things that Biden is asking to do without any real fear that he's going to take tough steps against them. And I think that's led to some frustration."
Netanyahu is scheduled to address to Congress on Wednesday, despite opposing the current administration on several issues and with a huge support base among Republicans ahead of a presidential election that could see them in office by the start of next year.
"Netanyahu comes as a hero that has imposed on the Biden administration to accept him, to meet with him, and to let him speak in Congress. He overcame all resistance within the administration, and so he comes to the United States as a winner," Menachem Klein, a political science professor at Bar-Ilan University in Israel, told MEE.
Public spats
When Israel launched its war on Gaza in October, Biden gave his full-fledged support to Israel's war effort. The US president went so far as to trumpet unverified claims that he had seen photos of babies beheaded in the 7 October attacks on southern Israel.
His administration also quickly moved to fast-track weapons shipments to Israel, a decision that led to the resignation of State Department official Josh Paul.
'[Netanyahu] overcame all resistance within the administration, and so he comes to the United States as a winner'
- Menachem Klein, Bar-Ilan University
As the death toll of Palestinians climbed by the thousands, most of whom were women and children, Biden remained defiant in his support for Israel and even questioned the validity of the death toll released by the Palestinian health ministry in Gaza.
The US president also visited Israel and met with Netanyahu and his war cabinet, a trip he has since boasted about, saying he is the first American president to visit Israel during a war.
Biden reportedly praised his approach to the war in private, with NBC News reporting in November that "the best way to approach the Israelis is to hug them close but not criticise them".
"It's beyond realpolitik that's from Biden. Much beyond realpolitik. It's emotional attachment," Klein said.
However, over the past few months, Biden has made several measured critiques of Israel's war effort, occasionally saying that the Palestinian death toll is too high and calling on Israel not to target civilians.
Then there was the Israeli attack that killed seven workers from the international charity, World Central Kitchen, causing major outrage in the western world and leading to a sharp rebuke from Biden.
Biden also publicly called on Israel not to invade Gaza's southernmost city of Rafah, saying it was a "red line" and would lead to a suspension of some arms shipments.
While Israel still launched an offensive on Rafah that was not criticised by the US - the operation was described by the Biden administration as a limited one that Washington was not opposed to - the opposition to Netanyahu's military plans received a cold reception in Israel.
"If Israel needs to stand alone, it will stand alone," Netanyahu said in early May.
Biden also said the US would be pausing a single shipment of arms, out of more than one hundred, which was met with outrage from the Israeli premier.
Netanyahu posted a video online, accusing the Biden administration of "withholding weapons and ammunitions to Israel".
"It's the approach of a child that thinks that he must get everything he wants," said Klein.
Netanyahu has also publicly hampered efforts by the Biden administration to achieve its foreign policy crown jewel: securing a normalisation agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Biden has repeatedly said that such a deal, which would build upon similar agreements brokered under former President Donald Trump, was close to fruition during his tenure in office.
However, Netanyahu has gone on to publicly state his opposition to a Palestinian state, which Riyadh has said is a key stipulation for any such normalisation agreement to occur.
"The Biden administration has been frustrated at points that Bibi has gone out of his way to say publicly there will never be a Palestinian state and they will not allow the Palestinian Authority into Gaza," Lowenstein said.
"That made this delicate dance that they were trying to perform around the Saudi normalisation all the more difficult."
Biden is 'weak politically'
On Sunday, the day before Netanyahu was set to meet with Biden, the US president dropped a bombshell announcement - he was not going to seek reelection in the upcoming November presidential election and would be endorsing his vice president, Kamala Harris, to potentially be the Democratic nominee.
The announcement came after weeks of Democratic leadership and major donors pressuring Biden to step out of the race, which came largely in response to his dismal performance in a debate against Republican nominee and former US President Donald Trump.
The domestic political fallout also places Biden in an unfavourable position, and with him having been largely focused on his political survival over the past month, Israel's war on Gaza hasn't been a major focus of his.
"Biden is so weak politically, that he's just not going to want to stand up to the Israelis at all," a former senior US official, told MEE.
Klein said the time for the current administration to issue a harder line on Israel has passed, and the support over the past months from Biden has allowed Netanyahu to continue waging war even after the fall of his own war cabinet.
"Biden emotionally faces a problem to use a stick against Israel. But this should have been the White House policy, to teach Netanyahu a lesson. But this was not done, and then, and then Netanyahu sees it as a green light to continue his attacks on the administration," Klein said.
Middle East Eye delivers independent and unrivalled coverage and analysis of the Middle East, North Africa and beyond. To learn more about republishing this content and the associated fees, please fill out this form. More about MEE can be found here.
