Regional players fuel Lebanon’s presidential impasse

Lebanon's parliament will hold a new session on 15 May to try to choose a president, after the Hezbollah-led bloc boycotted Wednesday's meeting, leaving lawmakers without the necessary quorum.

"Speaker Nabih Berri has announced 15 May as the next date for a parliament session, given the lack of quorum Wednesday," said a statement published by the official National News Agency.

President Michel Sleiman's mandate expires on 25 May, and Lebanon is coming close to being left without a president at all, given the lack of consensus between the country's two rival blocs, one led by Hezbollah and the other by pro-Western parties.

Deputies are faced with a choice between Samir Geagea, a fierce opponent of the Syrian government and its ally Hezbollah, and Michel Aoun, who is backed by the Lebanese Shiite movement.

If parliament fails to elect a successor by the deadline, the government will assume all executive powers, a scenario Lebanon experienced in 1988 and in 2007.

"I am inclined to assume that we will not have presidential elections by the end of... the constitutional period" because the Hezbollah camp cannot accept Geagea and its March 14 rivals cannot accept Aoun, said Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut.

Nadim Shehadi, associate fellow with Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme, agreed that the impasse can only be resolved if the different political groups agree on a compromise candidate.

Regional agendas

Over the years, the choice of president in Lebanon has been dictated by foreign powers, particularly Syria, which dominated the Mediterranean country for nearly three decades. Although Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2005 and is enduring a now three-year conflict, Syria still has a major say in Lebanon, largely through Hezbollah, whose forces have been fighting alongside the Damascus regime's in Syria.

"What is happening in Syria affects Lebanon more than any other country in the region," Shehadi said.

Iran, Shehadi said, is also influential in the elections as a result of its sponsorship of Hezbollah. The group - and its large weapons arsenal and involvement in the Syrian war - are the main points of contention between Lebanon's rival political camps, which are supported by Damascus and Tehran on one side, and Riyadh and Washington on the other.

As Vartan Oskanian, member of the Armenian National Assembly wrote in a recent Aljazeera column that the March 14 Alliance - dominated by Saad Hariri's Future Movement - and the March 8 Alliance - including Hezbollah and Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement -  "are wrangling, and at the same time, seeking the agreement of their respective allies. For the former, those allies are Saudi Arabia, the US, France and maybe Turkey; for the latter they are Iran, Syria and maybe Russia”.

Analysts say that while Lebanon's internal politics are heavily guided by external players, the resolution of the presidential question is not necessarily high on their agendas. This makes it even more likely that Lebanon will go without a president for a while. 

"Lebanon does not feature prominently, neither for Saudi Arabia nor for Iran right now," said AUB's Khashan. "Even the US is not even interested in Lebanon, but in other issues in the region."  

The presidential post is largely ceremonial, and therefore, said  Khashan, it is not a "burning issue" for Riyadh and Tehran, whose regional rivalry is currently focused on Syria and Yemen.

Presidential rivals

Fiercely anti-Syria figure Geagea, the only civil war warlord to have been convicted and jailed, defends his candidacy by saying he has sought forgiveness for his past "mistakes".

His rival Aoun, an ex-army chief, fought against Geagea's Lebanese Forces and also launched a "war of liberation" against Syria, before going into exile in France.

He returned to Lebanon in 2005, but his stance towards Damascus changed radically and he became a key ally of Syria backer Hezbollah.

As with the civil war, it may well be that neither man will emerge victorious from their latest battle.

Instead, "other candidates who can propose a consensus between the political groups" will eventually fill the void that Geagea and Aoun have failed to fill so far, said Shehadi. 

In the end, it seems this internal issue of Lebanon will likely concluded through the influenceforeign powers.

"Eventually, the Iranians and the Saudis are bound to reach a regional settlement, but it will take time,"  Khashan said.

The Lebanese political system is a complex one which tries to strike a balance between several political and ideological groups. 

Among the main political groups is the March 14 Alliance, a coalition of political parties and independents, most notably Saad Al-Hariri's Future Movement, united by an anti-Syrian regime stance. Another significant coalition is the March 8 Alliance which had been the ruling coalition in Lebanon between 2011 and 2013.