UK: Support for Sunak and Starmer among ethnic minority voters plummets

A new study has revealed plummeting ratings for UK Conservative and Labour leaders among ethnic minority voters between October and December 2023, compared with the first eight months of Rishi Sunak’s time as prime minister.

Analysis by Ipsos Mori shows that the dip in ratings for Labour leader Keir Stamer is particularly acute, suggesting that the "Gaza effect" could be responsible for the drop in support.

The study, which examines voting intention and leadership satisfaction ratings among ethnic minority and white Britons from 1996 to 2023, found that in the second half of 2023, 67 percent of ethnic minorities were dissatisfied with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Sunak’s net satisfaction score among ethnic minorities has dropped to -48, down from -24 for the first period of his premiership between October 2022 and June 2023.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction score for the same demographic plummeted from -4, to -21, representing the lowest net satisfaction score a Labour leader has recorded among ethnic minorities by Ipsos studies since 1996.

While some of the data gathered for the study predates Israel’s war on Gaza which began on 7 October 2023, the analysis shows that satisfaction ratings for both leaders began falling sharply among ethnic minorities, but not white Britons, between October and December, particularly for Starmer.

Ipsos director of politics Keiran Pedley said “there is evidence to suggest ratings could be due to a “Gaza effect”.

However, the study added that there may be other factors driving the drop in ratings, and that the base sizes for ethnic minorities are small.

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But according to the study, the dip in ratings has not significantly affected voting intentions.

While Labour’s vote share has dropped slightly among ethnic minorities, the party has retained its lead over the Conservatives.

Analysis published on Tuesday revealed that Labour lost a third of its vote share in areas with a Muslim majority during recent local elections, likely driven by its stance on Israel's war on Gaza.

Earlier this week, a survey by YouGov found that more than two-thirds of British people want a ceasefire in Gaza. British people were also significantly more likely to sympathise with the Palestinian side compared with the Israelis.

Both the UK opposition Labour party and the ruling Conservatives backed Israel's war on Gaza, although Labour has since called for a humanitarian ceasefire.