Syria delegations in Geneva as Assad's future remains a sticking point

Talks to end Syria's civil war opened in Geneva on Monday, as aid groups said security problems had stopped them delivering lifesaving shipments to besieged areas of the country despite a two-week-old ceasefire  

The UN-hosted negotiations in Switzerland, which began a day before the fifth anniversary of the outbreak of the conflict, have so far seen the sides locked in a bitter dispute over the future of President Bashar al-Assad, with a breakthrough looking unlikely.

On the ground, the Red Cross said it had been unable to complete a synchronised aid shipment to four besieged towns due to “security reasons”.

Since an unprecedented ceasefire came into place on 27 February, aid deliveries have reached around 150,000 people in areas blockaded by both government and opposition forces. 

However, on Monday activists reported shelling in the central Hama province, close to where the aid shipment had been headed.

In the northern province of Aleppo, though, aid was delivered to some 10,000 families on Monday.

Wrangling over delegations

With a fragile ceasefire continuing on the ground, delegations arrived in Geneva to discuss what UN envoy Staffan de Mistura called “the mother of all issues: political transition”.

A lot has changed since the last round of indirect talks collapsed in February, particularly for many of Syria's war-ravaged people who have previously been deprived of regular access to life-saving aid. 

The truce - the most significant since the conflict began - has sparked cautious encouragement.

But experts warn that negotiations will still struggle to achieve a durable peace on the fractured battlefields, where multiple groups are competing for dominance.

Representatives from Syrian Kurdish groups, which have played a key role in combatting Islamic State, have been excluded from the talks despite a push from Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reaffirmed Moscow's position on Monday, saying that "the whole spectrum of Syrian political forces" should have a voice in Geneva. 

"Otherwise this cannot claim to be a representative forum," he was quoted as saying by the RIA Novosti state news agency.

Beyond the contentious issue of Kurdish participation, Damascus has during previous peace efforts sought to veto various opposition figures and branded others as "terrorists".

Bashar Jaafari, Syria’s representative at the UN, said he had pressed the point again with de Mistura on Monday, asking for details of those invited and whether "all the delegations have been treated with equal criteria."

"The rule of the game will be inclusiveness," de Mistura said, adding that he was open to broadening the list of delegates as early as this round of negotiations, which is expected to last until 24 March.

A second round of roughly two weeks of talks will start after a brief recess, followed by a third round, at which point de Mistura said he hoped there will be a "clear roadmap" for a permanent deal. 

No 'plan B'

The UN envoy acknowledged the huge divisions between the opposing sides, with Assad's fate and the prospect of holding elections standing out as key hurdles. 

But, he stressed, walking away from dialogue was not an option. 

"As far as I know, the only plan B available is the return to war, and to an even worse war than we had so far," he said. 

Analysts have said the talks are largely a forum for international powers involved in the conflict, and that the strategic interests of the US and government ally Russia will be crucial to determining the shape of a possible deal. 

De Mistura told reporters that if progress appears impossible, he will turn to the "real peacemakers," referring to Washington, Moscow and the UN Security Council. 

"We will bring the issues back to those who have influence" if negotiations go nowhere, he said.  

The leverage of these powers over Syria's warring parties has its limits, though, with over half of Syria's territory under the control of either Islamic State or Nusra Front, neither of which are included in the ceasefire or the talks.

Russia has continued to focus its air strikes on these groups since the truce came into effect last month, pounding militant stronghold areas around the ancient city of Palmyra throughout the weekend, amongst other targets.