Turkey elections live: Lira tumbles as runoff confirmed

Even though the opposition is still hopeful for official results to hand them a victory, two rival news agencies report that a runoff is very likely.

Anka news agency says 94.45 percent of ballot boxes have been opened and puts the results like this:

• Erdogan: 49.02 percent
• Kilicdaroglu: 45.2 percent
• Ogan: 5.3 percent

Anadolu, meanwhile, says 89.2 percent of ballot boxes have been counted. It results are:

• Erdogan: 49.94 percent
• Kilicdaroglu: 44.3 percent
• Ogan: 5.3 percent

A second round between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu would take place on 28 May.

Anadolu Agency has released a statement saying it is publishing results data based on signed and stamped ballot box records and it doesn’t make any preference. The state news agency releases the results as they come out, it insists.

Earlier, Istanbul Mayor Ekram Imamoglu, an opposition vice presidential candidate, accused Anadolu of misrepresenting the results by indicating a very large early lead for Erdogan (which has now shrunk).

The agency says its 2,500 employees, along with a polling companies, have been working hard to get the data.

It says it will take legal action against the parties “inaccurately” blaming the agency for the election results.

Ali Ihsan Yavuz, chairman of the AKP, has refuted the opposition’s claims that results were being misrepresented and that the ruling party was holding up the count where it was losing, calling the allegations “bloated”.

“They are in panic,” he said on live TV. “We are comfortable getting a majority at the parliament and we are leading by margin for the presidency.”

Yavuz said there were security checks in place for the ballot boxes and everyone has their representatives at them.

“They say we file objections and that’s why they aren’t catching up,” Yavuz said. “This process takes a really little time and it doesn’t really impact much.”

Sinan Ogan, the nationalist presidential candidate, says he thinks the election will go to a second round, which would be held in two weeks if no one gets over 50 percent.

"We see a high probability that the elections will go to the second round. Turkish nationalists and Kemalists are the key to this election," he said. With around five percent of the vote, Ogan's electorate will likely play kingmakers.

In a tweet, Erdogan said no one should hastily declare results. 

"While the election was held in such a positive and democratic atmosphere and the vote counting is still going on, trying to announce results hastily means usurpation of the national will," he said.

Erdogan also urged his supporters to maintain a presence at the ballot boxes until the results are official.

Kilicdaroglu did the same, calling Erdogan's early large lead a "fiction" and calling on the election board to provide more data.

"Ballot observers and election board officials should never leave their places. We will not sleep tonight, my people," he said.

Based on Anadolu Agency data, a preliminary analysis of vote shares in the presidential elections in AKP strongholds suggest that ultranationalist candidate Sinan Ogan managed to snatch votes from both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu's bases.

Erdogan seems to have suffered a 5.5 percent loss in central Turkey’s Konya where he received 74.2 percent in 2018 elections, but now stands at 68.7 percent in 2023 with 92 percent ballot boxes opened. Ogan currently has 6.76 percent of votes.

In central Anatolia’s Kayseri, Erdogan's vote share seems to have melted since 2018 by 6.6 percent. Here, Ogan is at 8.70 percent.

Similarly, in Yozgat puts Erdogan at 72.6 percent, whilst he was at 75.5 percent five years ago. Ogan has 5.7 percent. In Sivas, Erdogan is down to 69.6 percent from 72.3. Ogan is at 6.1 percent.

In all these places, Kilicdaroglu's vote share either stands at similar levels to 2018 opposition votes or seems to be 2-3 percent lower than those.

All these places are known for their conservative and historically nationalist leanings. These numbers suggest that Ogan managed to lure voters from Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu's traditional bases, as well as the breakaway candidate Muharrem Ince, who withdrew from the race just days before the voting started. 

Don’t forget that Turkey has voted for its next parliament, as well as president. Counting the vote for parliament is a bit slower than the presidency, but we’re starting to get an idea of who is doing well.

So far, the surprise performer is the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a Turkish nationalist outfit closely allied to Erdogan and his ruling AKP.

The MHP were predicted to drop below 10 percent, but so far that doesn’t look likely. Anadolu has them at over 11 percent at the moment.

With 62 percent of the ballot counted, Anadolu has the parliament like this:

• AKP: 36.9 percent - 271 MPs
• MHP: 11.25 percent - 52MPs

• CHP: 23.54 percent - 168 MPs
• IYI: 9.90 percent - 46MPs

• HDP/YSP: 8.26 percent — 58MPs

That would give Erdogan’s AKP/MHP bloc a majority.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is a vice presidential candidate, said the ruling AKP was filing objections in districts where opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu is leading.

“This is an election tactic, we respect it. That’s why the data is coming very slowly,” he said.

Mansur Yavas, the CHP mayor of Ankara, said the opposition’s vote share is increasing and it will likely accelerate, as votes in the large cities were still getting counted.

Anadolu says 64 percent of the votes have been counted:

• Erdogan: 51.40 percent

• Kilicdaroglu: 42.77 percent

• Ogan: 5.32 percent

Rival news agency Anka says 57.77 percent counted. It makes the picture look more even, but with Erdogan still ahead:

• Erdogan: 47.84 percent

• Kilicdaroglu: 46.39 percent

• Ogan: 5.32 percent

A well-placed source within the Turkish government told MEE’s Ragip Soylu that the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) projection, based on current data, suggests there is a 50 percent chance that Erdogan will win the first round with 50.2 or 50.4 percent.

There is also a 50 percent chance that there will be a runoff.

Anka, an opposition-leaning news agency, is doing its own data. It paints quite a different picture to Anadolu with 36.7 percent counted:

• Kilicdaroglu: 47.2 percent
• Erdogan: 47 percent
• Ogan: 5.3 percent

Anadolu, meanwhile, says 41 percent of the vote has been counted. Here’s where we are:

• Erdogan 52.55 percent
• Kilicdaroglu: 41.55 percent
• Ogan: 5.36 percent

HalkTV is broadcasting leaked opposition data with 36.8 percent counted. That puts Kilicdaroglu on 47.6 percent and Erdogan on 46.5 percent. The vote difference between the two is 198,000 votes.

Remember, if no one gets over 50 percent we go to a runoff in two weeks’ time.

Though Anadolu puts Erdogan ahead at this stage, the opposition claims it's actually ahead.

Kilicdaroglu has tweeted just one word: Ondeyiz (we're leading).

The Turkish opposition seems unhappy with the way Anadolu is tracking the results.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu went live on TV to rail against the state news agency, accusing it of manipulating the vote count.

Imamoglu said Anadolu Agency was in “vegetative state” and was releasing its data in a deliberate way that puts Erdogan in the lead with wide margin, dropping over time.

Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas said Kilicdaroglu is currently leading in the CHP’s own data. Imamoglu said Anadolu is deceiving the public with its data and he believes Kilicdaroglu will be the president tonight.

The Istanbul mayor has history with Anadolu, of course, with the agency failing to update the vote count beyond the 98.7 percent mark for more than 12 hours in the 2019 mayoral election when it appeared the CHP candidate was on course to win.

Now 32 percent of the vote has been counted and Anadolu is putting it like this:

• Erdogan: 53.37 percent
• Kilicdaroglu: 40.68 percent
• Ogan: 5.39 percent

Erdogan continues to drop.

The surprise of the elections is Sinan Ogan, the candidate of ultra-nationalist Ancestor Alliance. He is clinging to five percent of the vote.

An academic specialising in business and international relations, he was formerly associated with Erdogan’s allied Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). It is difficult to tell at this stage whether he attracted GenZ Turkish nationalist voters or Turkish nationalists who don’t want to vote for Kilicdaroglu, as was his aim.

Ogan’s appearance on a YouTube show last month increased his support among first-time voters. His main platform is criticising both the opposition and the government on the presence of 3.7 million Syrian refugees. He is also an ardent critic of Kilicdaroglu for making an indirect alliance with the pro-Kurdish HDP, which is supporting him from outside the Table of Six opposition alliance.

The fourth candidate on the ballot, Muharrem Ince, pulled out of the race late last week citing an online smear campaign. It was too late to take his name off the ballots, which had already been printed, and some people seem to be voting for him nonetheless. So far Ince’s on about 0.56 percent.