Turkey’s opposition grapples with identity crisis

The Republican People's Party (CHP), the main parliamentary opposition of Turkey is in turmoil. Muharrem Ince, a prominent figure in the party, resigned as parliamentary group deputy chairman on 18 August, after delivering a lengthy press conference on the current party leadership. He stated that it the opposition not currently capable of mounting a real challenge to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP/AK Party).

On 10 August, the electoral failure of Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, the party's joint candidate with the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) led some CHP MPs to voice their objection against the party leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Emine Ulker Tarhan, an outspoken critic of Kilicdaroglu declared that the party no longer represents its fundamental pillars, and has been taken away from social democracy by nominating a conservative elitist like Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu. Tarhan has been accompanied by five other deputies during a press conference last week.

In response to rising voices, Kilicdaroglu called for an extraordinary party convention to be held on 5-6 September. Just after this move, Ince announced he will run as a candidate to become the chairman of the party.

"The honourable chairman [Kilicdaroglu] decided individually who will become a mayor, MP or presidential candidate," Ince said during the second press conference in one week. He blamed Kilicdaroglu of becoming more authoritarian and less democratic.

A long-time coming

This is not the first time that CHP is facing such a crisis. After almost all election failures, similar statements have been made and dissident voices have been raised from within the party establishment.

These debates usually revolve around the ideological pillars that define the party; and though CHP clearly profiles itself as a social democratic and secularist party, for many it is neither.

Perhaps the nomination of Ihsanoglu to run as their presidential candidate was one of the best examples. According to some ultra-secular cadres, Ihsanoglu’s Islamic background and former links to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation were deemed to be conflicting with the party principles. It is not surprising that the same MP's now have become dissidents.

Riza Turmen, a CHP MP and former judge of the European Court of Human Rights challenges the existing mantra. Regarding the party principles he stated "You cannot be a neo-nationalist and social democrat at the same time. CHP must take steps to change this." Neo-nationalist (ulusalci) is a controversial term often used to define Kemalist, statist and ultra-secular cadres with nationalistic sensitivities.

He then linked the current distress to the ongoing transformation process. "CHP has changed and it will continue to change" he told the national daily Birgun newspaper. "What we are witnessing is labour pain. […] We need a new understanding of politics and vision; therefore we need new faces."

However, Ali Yasar Saribay at Uludag University does not believe that Muharrem Ince and the wing of the party he represents could become the new face of CHP. He also questions the change and transformation patterns of the party.

"He [Kilicdaroglu] claimed that he would change the intra-party participation mechanisms and democratic norms for the better, increase transparency and remove the cumbersome bureaucratic structure," he told MEE. "After so many years, we do not see any of these changes."

"We have witnessed so many party conventions in the last four years and have to acknowledge that unfortunately the party cannot rejuvenate itself, and bound to face personal struggles," he further added. "I do not see a particular difference between Kilicdaroglu and Ince in that sense."

To further elaborate, Can Atakli stated that "The presidential election failure of the CHP added yet another trauma to the party’s supporters". The former columnist at Vatan newspaper thinks that the main reason for the failure is the party’s inability to exhibit confidence and persuasiveness.

For Atakli moreover, CHP cannot develop policies and challenge the government party due to its weakened position in parliament. "Whilst AKP ignores the constitution, and does whatever it wants to do, the CHP is paralysed," he told MEE.

Besides, the difficulties that CHP encounters in the political realm and its consequent inability to make a stand against the government party can also be explained by deeper problems in Turkish democracy.

According to Yunus Emre at Istanbul Kultur University, the anti-democratic political culture in Turkey, party legislations and intra-party regulations make it impossible for parties to evolve. "The party organisation and establishment are weak, and they are very limited in setting policies and nominating candidates," Emre told MEE. "Because of this reason, calls for change do not reach the leadership level."

A false dawn?

Should he become the next chairman, many believe Muharrem Ince could not really make a difference as a result of the troubles within the party as well as the underlying structural problems.

There are two main hurdles Ince will have to take to get himself elected in the convention. On one hand, he faces structural and timing difficulties as the convention will take place in a relatively short period of time, which might prevent the dissidents to mobilise party delegates.

"The law on political parties and the delegation structure of CHP would not make it easy for Ince to get elected," Atakli argues.

On the other hand, though Ince is an outspoken and popular figure for many, what he stands for is somewhat unclear. For Saribay, who he is and what he represents is unknown. "We cannot say that he represents the left wing of the party, nor could we claim that he is the mouthpiece of the secularists," he argued.

Saribay added that Ince does not have any real platform, and no goal other than becoming the chairman.

Though Ince claimed that he would change the party regulation and introduce drastic reforms to strengthen intra-party democratic mechanisms, Atakli believes that he does not stand a chance against Kilicdaroglu. "He is not a strong figure and he does not have strong backing either," he told MEE.

Besides, the outcome of this existential crisis and CHP's self-identification are greatly influenced by the rivalry with AK Party according to Emre. For him, potential changes could only come from the shifting structure within the government party. "Until the upcoming general elections, the only factor that could affect CHP's future is what would be the future of AKP," he said.

CHP's matchup with AKP constrained the party to such an extent that the real power struggle takes place within the party, rather than challenging the government. "There is practically no mental difference between the CHP administration and other cadres within the party," Emre argued. "Therefore, the future of CHP will be determined by the factors which are not controlled by the party."

Atakli supports this idea of intra-party power struggle, and deconstructs Kilicdaroglu's moves. "The right thing for Kilicdaroglu to do would have been resigning on election night and going to the convention with a fresh team," he reasoned.

"By calling for a convention at short notice and only after being challenged, as well as setting a small venue, he sends the message of 'I am the boss'. In a way he acts like Recep Tayyip Erdogan, taking all the power into his hands."

According to Atakli, under these circumstances the intra-party opposition made a faulty attempt to challenge Kilicdaroglu. He will probably have the party's backing during the convention.

Taking a broader perspective, Saribay reiterates that the current and recurring deadlock facing the CHP is an existential problem. "Only when CHP can identify this, it could change the conditions in its favour," he said.

He speculates that more drastic changes are needed to reverse the party’s course. "Maybe a neo-nationalist surge in the party and a seizure of the party administration would result in an exodus of the leftist wing to form a new party, which eventually would be a fortunate moment in Turkish politics," Saribay concluded.