Turkish-Kurd peace process in disarray

Over the past six weeks, the “peace process” aimed at resolving the decades-old conflict between the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and Turkey’s central government has been shaken to the core, amid tensions over Ankara’s unwillingness to allow support for Syrian Kurds battling Islamic State fighters seeking to take over their town of  Kobane.

For 30 years, the PKK  fought for Kurdish independence, until in the late 1990s it dropped those aspirations while continuing its struggle for more autonomy and formal recognition of Kurdish identity.

Indirect talks between the government and PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who had been imprisoned since 1999,  were eventually started and have been going on since at least late 2012, when they were disclosed by the then prime minister, and now president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

On the surface, there appears to have been progress. On 2 October, Turkey passed a law to establish a monitoring and coordination body to oversee the peace process. The establishment of commissions was suggested by Ocalan as the next step to carry the peace process forward.

The People's Democracy Party (HDP), the main Kurdish party in parliament, welcomed the decision. Its representatives met with Ocalan on Imrali island, where he is held and on the same day,  HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtas met Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to discuss the next steps.

However, since the beginning of the Islamic State (IS) siege of the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobane, right on the Turkish border, relations between the Turkish government and the country’s Kurds have come under stress. Ocalan linked the Kurdish resistance in Kobane to the peace process; then, days later,  Erdogan, who had been unwilling to allow support of Syrian Kurds in their defence of Kobane, drew parallels between the PKK and IS,  a view not received warmly by the Kurds in Turkey.

A call by HDP for nationwide protests to urge the Turkish government to take measures to protect Kobane claimed the lives of more than 30 people, and the demonstrations died down only after Ocalan's call for restraint. Then, on 10 October, the spokesperson for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP/AK Party), Besir Atalay, announced that the peace process draft framework was almost finalised, and that the government had shared the document with the HDP.

A week later, the government summoned, for the first time in more than a year, what is known as the "wise people" commission, a body of around 60 people from a diverse range of backgrounds and regions set up in April 2013 to help promote and hear demands from society regarding the peace process. The summons was reportedly to discuss how the delegation could contribute further to the settlement process.

Then, on 25 October, three unarmed soldiers were found dead in Yuksekova, Hakkari, in southeast Turkey, in circumstances reminiscent of the summary executions of the 1990s and a harrowing reminder of those dark days.

Following the incident, the government intensified security measures in the region, and Deputy Prime Minister Yalcin Akdogan told Al Jazeera Turk that the government had suspended its talks with the HDP. An AKP spokesperson, Bulent Arinc, meanwhile  said:  "From now on, we may refrain from speaking about the resolution process. We are not obliged to the resolution process."

It was only on 12 November that the HDP members got together with government officials and announced moves to put the peace process back on track. Prime Minister  Davutoglu welcomed the decision, and told journalists: "We needed to restore trust. [HDP's statement] to confirm their commitment to the peace process is a positive outcome."

Confusion over direction

Whilst the latest upturn means the resumption of regular talks and potentially further improvement, the past six weeks were effectively a "stress-test" for both parties.

According to Seydi Firat, a former high-ranking member of PKK who laid down his weapons in 1999 upon the request of Ocalan,  the latest surge of tension reveals the government's intentions.

"It has always been difficult for succeeding Turkish governments to consider the PKK as a party in the solution. It took a long time and tremendous effort for the state to come to the point where it is now," Firat, a permanent member of the Democratic Society Congress (DTK), the umbrella organisation of Kurdish political movements, told MEE.

"But why does the government avoid taking further steps?" he said. "I do not think the government is seeking a final solution; it rather aims to prolong the process and slur over the essentials."

Though the government claims that it is finalising the framework of the process, there is confusion over the contents of the draft framework document. The expectations and realities of the government and Kurds appear to be growing apart.

Galip Dalay, a researcher at the Ankara-based think-tank SETA, observes differing opinions of parties when it comes to methodology, pace and content. For him, structural factors are forcing both parties to advance the process; however, no one favours a final solution at this stage.

"On one hand, for the Kurdish side, the continuation of the process means the discussion of a final status for Abdullah Ocalan [who has been sentenced to life imprisonment]  and the PKK, as well as consolidation of the gains in Rojava," Dalay told MEE, referring to the area of northern Syria, including Kobane, for which the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) - the Syrian offshoot of PKK - declared autonomy in 2013.

"On the other hand, for the government, continuing the talks means hope for constitutional change, gains for political discourse, and strengthening the AK Party's regional and international standing in the wake of damaging developments over Syria," he said.

The AKP government is planning to introduce a new constitution after general elections in 2015. The support of Kurds plays an essential role in acquiring the votes required to pass the document, which also aims to introduce a presidential system.

However, for Ismail Besikci, a leading Kurdish rights advocate and academic who has been imprisoned many times for his political opinions, the present talks are meaningless as the state has to return Kurds' rights without negotiations.

"In the republican era, the Turkish state seized the democratic rights of Kurds by denying their existence, language and culture," Besikci told MEE. "It is of utmost importance for the Kurds to govern themselves and have access to education in their mother tongue."

In other words, for Besikci, the current talks are not about granting Kurds their rights; these should be a given without negotiations. The talks are rather about how to accommodate the PKK in the post-conflict era and decide on Ocalan's future status.

"Kurdish rights and the future of PKK are two parallel issues that go hand in hand. The government's attitude to solve the second issue while not taking any concrete steps on the first one exposes its anti-Kurdish sentiments," Besikci said. "The new generation of Kurds are protesting the government's anti-Kurdish attitude, and recent clashes should be considered in this context."

The final say?

The direction of the talks is yet to be seen, but a pessimistic atmosphere appears to be clouding hopes.

Seydi Firat believes that the peace process is a historical opportunity for the government to end this conflict once and for all; yet he doubts its candidness. "The current ceasefire is PKK's best executed ceasefire ever. But the government continues to extend security measures and build new military outposts and dams in the region," he said.

Indeed, Davutoglu has constantly reiterated that public order is the government’s priority and that it will not concede on that due to the peace process. The government drafted a new bill to amend the existing domestic security law in the wake of the violent protests for Kobane.

The PKK military command in the Kandil mountains of northern Iraq has sporadically cautioned the Turkish government over the slow pace of the peace process. Cemil Bayik, the PKK’s top field commander, sent another warning only last week, linking the Kobane fighting to the peace process.

Nevertheless, since the beginning of the talks, there have been many upturns and downturns, and for the most part Ocalan has worked on confidence-building measures to keep the PKK and Kurds in check.

Firat explains this situation with Ocalan's methodology. "Since 1993, Ocalan has opened up a space to [the PKK’s] counterparts for discussion and acts humble," the former PKK member said. "But when he realises that the government is not acting in an honest way, then he changes his stance accordingly."

Given past examples, Ocalan appears to have the final say over the Kurdish attitude. But according to Galip Dalay at SETA, Ocalan in reality cannot hold the strings if the PKK commanders in Kandil decide  to go another direction. "It takes only a matter of conducting several armed attacks to expose the fragility of the process," Dalay said.

"If you look at similar instances, sometimes the leadership in Kandil goes on its own direction and does not listen to Ocalan. And the jailed leader does not take steps that would potentially jeopardise his own leadership," he said. "If there is a determination to resume the armed struggle, Ocalan might not stand in the way."

Firat agrees with the danger that lies ahead, but he sees the situation from another angle. For him, it is not Ocalan or the PKK in Kandil, but the inertia of the government that disrupts the peace process.

"In the wake of regional and international developments and the steps that the government fails to take, the nature of the process has changed," he said. "If the circumstances change and if there is no room for Ocalan to have a say in the process, then he cannot be a part of this [the peace process].

"In an environment in which there have been no real gains for Kurdish rights since 1993, one would come to the conclusion that the government does not really believe in solving the puzzle. In other words, it is the government who weakens Ocalan, not the PKK or Kurds."