US elections 2024: What you need to know about election day
Election day has dawned in the United States, marking the culmination of a highly charged campaign season.
The campaign was defined by President Joe Biden's decision not to seek re-election after a disastrous debate and two assassination attempts on the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.
By the time polls close on 5 November, tens of millions of early votes will have already been cast, but millions more will vote in person today.
The 2020 elections saw record participation, with more than 200 million voters - a turnout peak not seen since 1992.
Election experts anticipate a similar surge this year, as the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump appears to be highly competitive if polls are to be believed. FiveThirtyEight, a popular website that weighs and ranks national polls, predicts a razor-thin margin, with Harris winning 50 times out of 100 and Donald Trump 49 times out of 100, according to their simulation.
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In addition to the presidential race, Americans are also voting in thousands of elections at federal, state and local levels.
Here is an overview of the critical factors shaping the outcome of today's elections.
Exit polls and the voting system
Voting began as early as 6am (11am GMT) in eastern states, while some western states followed with later start times. Polls close at different hours across time zones, with the earliest closing in Indiana and Kentucky at 6pm Eastern Standard Time (EST) and the last votes cast in Alaska by 1am EST.
These staggered hours mean results will start trickling in as soon as polls close on the east coast, though the final outcome could take much longer - depending on how close the race is, how long vote counting takes and whether there are any challenges or recounts.
The US president is chosen by the Electoral College, not the popular vote.
Each state has a set number of electoral votes based on the number of senators and representatives in its congressional delegation, which is based on its population. Candidates must secure 270 of these 538 votes to win.
Major news networks begin releasing exit polls at around 5 pm EST, offering early indicators of how swing states might lean. These polls provide preliminary insights but aren’t always predictive, particularly in especially close races.
Previous election
The 2020 election brought intense scrutiny over vote counting due to an unprecedented surge in mail-in ballots during the Covid-19 pandemic.
In many states, counting stretched into the days following election day, particularly in critical battlegrounds where both mail-in and in-person ballots needed verification.
This delay prompted calls for election reforms to improve efficiency, and many states adjusted their policies this time to allow pre-processing of mail ballots. However, close races are still expected to prolong the timeline.
The 2020 elections were marred by allegations of voter fraud, primarily centred around the legitimacy of mail-in ballots.
Numerous court cases were filed, challenging the integrity of the vote count, though none of these lawsuits proved systemic fraud. This controversy sparked a wave of new voting legislation in some states aimed at tightening voting requirements and oversight, which some argue complicate the voting process, particularly for certain demographics.
The role of the Muslim vote
The Muslim vote, estimated to comprise over 1 million voters, could play a crucial role in the presidential election this year, particularly in key swing states. States such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia have substantial Muslim populations concentrated in urban areas, including Detroit and Atlanta, where voter turnout can sway the electoral outcome.
This year’s vote holds even more weight against the backdrop of Israel's ongoing war in Gaza, which has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians.
The war, largely funded by the Biden-Kamala administration, has fuelled deep resentment within Muslim American communities.
Muslim voters, already engaged on issues such as civil rights and domestic policies, are expressing heightened urgency over US foreign policy in the Middle East. Candidates’ stances on Gaza, US-Israel relations and human rights may strongly influence their choices at the polls.
The Muslim vote is likely most crucial in Michigan, where the Democrats won by a razor-thin margin in 2020. However, recent polls suggest they have lost support in the state since the war began.
Voter issues and suppression concerns
Access to voting has been a recurrent issue, with voters facing long wait times, strict ID requirements and limited polling stations in certain areas.
Civil rights organisations have highlighted these issues as forms of voter suppression, disproportionately affecting minorities and low-income voters.
Advocacy groups are stationed across the country today to assist with any issues at polling sites and ensure that everyone can cast their vote freely and fairly.
Key states to watch and mail-in ballots
The path to victory for either candidate hinges on several battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona are the key states to watch.
These states have large numbers of electoral votes and were narrowly won in previous elections. Counties within these states, especially urban centres, are expected to play a pivotal role, as shifts in demographics and voter sentiment could tip the results either way.
Mail-in ballots remain a significant factor this election, though not as dominant as in 2020.
Many voters opted for early voting, both in person and by mail, to avoid long queues on election day. However, mail-in votes are often counted last in some states, leading to the possibility of a “red mirage” or “blue shift”, where early in-person voting results might initially favour one candidate before the mail-in ballots are fully tallied, potentially changing the outcome.
Over 23 million Americans have already cast their ballots, according to the University of Florida’s election lab.
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