Libya declares oil breakthrough as rebellion simmers

Libya’s interim prime minister announced the end of a crippling yearlong oil blockade on Wednesday, after a deal was struck with rebels in the east to reopen two large oil terminals on the Mediterranean coast.

“We have successfully reached an agreement to solve the oil crisis,” Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani told reporters at a joint news conference with rebel leader Ibrahim Jadran. “We have received today Ras Lanuf and Es Sider oil ports thankfully without the use of force.”

“I officially declare this is the end of the oil crisis,” he added.

Former employees of Libya’s Oil Facilities Guard led by Ibrahim Jadran seized four oil ports last July, initially in a protest over salaries and working conditions, but which quickly morphed into calls for greater autonomy in the eastern Barqa province.

The blockade has cost Libya an estimated $35 bn, which has seen oil production plummet to 300,000 barrels per day from a daily capacity of 1.3 mn barrels in 2011 prior to former leader Muammar Gaddafi’s overthrow.  

Libya’s population relies heavily on oil and gas revenues, which provides for 90 percent of the country’s income, with 70 percent of government expenditure spent on payments, transfers, pensions and subsidies to help impoverished communities survive.

The terminals at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf have the potential to provide nearly half of this oil output, at some 560,000 barrels per day, and with an agreement in place the plan is to restart production in the coming weeks.

“It’s possible to solve all issues and get to an agreement to re-open Es Sider and Ras Lanuf when the new parliament starts working, God willing, after Ramadan,” Ali al-Hassy, a rebel leader and spokesperson for the Executive Office for Barqa, told Bloomberg News.

Rebels have already handed over two other blockaded oil terminals at Zueitina and Hariga, after a deal was struck with the government on 6 April in return for an amnesty and salaries for defectors from Libya’s Petroleum Facilities Guard who have joined rebel groups.

Shipments at Zueitina are yet to resume, however, delayed by damage to the terminal during the blockade, although a tanker was loaded at Hariga at the end of last month to resume production. Reserves in the refineries at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf are likely to be full, so initial shipping should take place without a hitch, although bringing the terminals back to operating capacity may take time due to political wrangling and potential structural damage caused since it was seized last July.

Agreements between the government and powerful militias remain fragile, as federalists from the eastern Barqa province demand increased autonomy. Last month, rebel leaders had threatened to cancel the deal to reopen the Zueitina and Hariga terminals when the Islamist-backed businessman Ahmed Miitig was nominated to be prime minister.

The Supreme Court later ruled Miitig’s appointment invalid, a decision he immediately accepted with good grace, allowing interim premier Thani to continue in a role that has included overseeing parliamentary elections that took place on 25 June.

Election results thought to favour Haftar

Election results are due in the next 10 days, although early signs point to reduced influence for Islamist parties and gains for candidates close to the more liberal leaning National Forces Alliance. Analysts say the 200 seats up for grabs could be split into 26 for federalists in the east, 87 for civilian forces and 60 for candidates close to the National Forces Alliance, leaving just 27 seats for the Islamists.

If this outcome is confirmed, it could play into the hands of rogue general Khalifa Haftar, who has been leading a military offensive to purge Libya of “terrorists”.

“This could give Haftar’s Operation Dignity the political and legal backing it lacks,” said Mohamed Eljarh, Libyan analyst for Foreign Policy. “Operation Dignity currently has the support of the people, like in Tobruk where almost everyone I’ve spoken to supports it, and if that support translates into political and legal backing Haftar could start receiving much-needed financial and international help in terms of intelligence, weapons and ammunition.”

“If the operation is recognised in this way it could be a good thing, however, it’s important that Haftar announces that he didn’t mean to say he wants to wipe the Muslim Brotherhood out of Libya, as that shouldn’t be the case,” he added.

It is difficult to assess tangible progress made by Operation Dignity since it was launched by Haftar and his non-governmental “National Army” on 16 May, with attacks on Benghazi killing at least 79 people. The former Gaddafi army general recently announced a ceasefire to allow for elections to take place, although violence has persisted in the east on an almost daily basis.

Assassinations are commonplace in Benghazi, with a former air force worker and his son killed on 30 June while the well-known Moutaz Sharif, a Salafist who has spoken out against terrorism, was shot dead the next day. No one has claimed responsibility for the murders, as is often the way with these kind of attacks in and around Benghazi.

Battle for Benghazi

Ansar al-Sharia, designated a terrorist organisation by the Americans, retains its presence in the city despite regular airstrikes by Haftar aligned forces, which are launched from Tobruk airbase to the east. Negotiations led by leading doctor and local political figure Dr. Awad Alqawiri are ongoing to get the group to leave Jalaa Hospital, which they took control of around 10 days ago.

Local sources say while it is proving difficult to assess how many fighters from Ansar al-Sharia have died in Operation Dignity, there have been notable successes in stifling the group of access to weapons and ammunition. Sources cite the recent seizing of 80 anti-tank landmines intended for Ansar al-Sharia, which were picked up by forces in Tobruk loyal to Haftar’s operation, as a sign supplies are running out.

As for the future of Operation Dignity, Libyan analyst Eljarh says a change of tack is on the horizon and that with potential political backing things could change swiftly.

“I’ve been told that ground forces will be used and it will become a street battle where militants from Ansar al-Sharia will be handpicked and taken out - how feasible is that? I don’t know,” he said. “Haftar will only be able to make significant change if he gets backing from a powerful third party, perhaps Egypt, but he needs political and legal backing from within Libya first."

“The lack of legal and political backing is hurting Haftar at the moment, but if he gets that then things could change dramatically in a matter of weeks,” he added.

A return to the Gaddafi old guard?

Rumours abound that Haftar could even run for the presidency, although Eljarh says his current objective appears to be winning a decisive victory in his military campaign.

For some Libyans, a Haftar presidency would be a fateful return to the old guard.

“It would be a disaster if Haftar runs for the presidency, it would be Colonel Gaddafi number two,” said Abdul Hameed Aila, a UK-based Libyan activist. “Gaddafi came in off the back of a military coup and the people welcomed him with open arms, it would be shameful if this were to happen again,” he added.

In the battle to nullify the impact of groups like Ansar al-Sharia, Aila says Haftar’s approach of a military solution is predestined to fail and that a more nuanced approach is required to bring an end to the seemingly endless cycle of violence.

“Ansar al-Sharia are an extremist group, to an extent, but you’re fighting an ideological war and cannot defeat them with a military solution,” he said. “The battle is for religious scholars to change the approach of Ansar al-Sharia, as they do not believe in democracy and the only hope is that they respond to theological arguments.”

“Neither the government nor any politician will have an impact as significant as the religious scholars if they were to intervene with Ansar al-Sharia.”

Libya’s post-revolution transition continues to be hard-fought, and while the potential restarting of oil production provides a twinkling of positivity, there remains much work to be done in bridging seemingly intractable differences among the country’s factious communities and political groupings.