Ogan eats into Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu's vote in conservative areas

Based on Anadolu Agency data, a preliminary analysis of vote shares in the presidential elections in AKP strongholds suggest that ultranationalist candidate Sinan Ogan managed to snatch votes from both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu's bases.

Erdogan seems to have suffered a 5.5 percent loss in central Turkey’s Konya where he received 74.2 percent in 2018 elections, but now stands at 68.7 percent in 2023 with 92 percent ballot boxes opened. Ogan currently has 6.76 percent of votes.

In central Anatolia’s Kayseri, Erdogan's vote share seems to have melted since 2018 by 6.6 percent. Here, Ogan is at 8.70 percent.

Similarly, in Yozgat puts Erdogan at 72.6 percent, whilst he was at 75.5 percent five years ago. Ogan has 5.7 percent. In Sivas, Erdogan is down to 69.6 percent from 72.3. Ogan is at 6.1 percent.

In all these places, Kilicdaroglu's vote share either stands at similar levels to 2018 opposition votes or seems to be 2-3 percent lower than those.

All these places are known for their conservative and historically nationalist leanings. These numbers suggest that Ogan managed to lure voters from Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu's traditional bases, as well as the breakaway candidate Muharrem Ince, who withdrew from the race just days before the voting started.