Ogan voters appear split two ways

One of the most anticipated questions ahead of the run-off was how those who voted for third-placed ultranationalist, anti-refugee candidate Sinan Ogan in the first round would vote this time.

Ogan endorsed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan days before the second round. Ogan's ultranationalist, anti-refugee ally Umit Ozdag and his Victory Party, on the other hand, endorsed the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Ozdag's party got 2.2 percent of the votes in the parliamentary elections.

Preliminary analysis suggests that Ogan's votes were runaways from both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu and they mostly went back to their more traditional candidate.

In strongholds of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) like Konya, Yozgat and Kayseri, Erdogan increased his vote share by 3-5 percent in comparison with the first round on 14 May.

In opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) strongholds like Kirklareli, Edirne and Tekirdag, Kilicdaroglu increased his vote share by 3-4 percent in comparison with the first round.

Erdogan enjoys strong support from more provinces than Kilicdaroglu, so this sort of split would give him the advantage.

What seems clear is neither Ogan nor Ozdag was able to decisively sway their voters to back either candidate, despite their respective endorsements.