Ragip Soylu's closing analysis

After two presidential elections and a parliamentary one to boot in the last two weeks, Middle East Eye is closing its live blog.

Erdogan is victorious, his coalition has a majority in parliament and now he has five years of power to add onto the 20 he’s already had.

For those wondering what happens next, parliament will convene on Thursday, Erdogan’s going to take an oath on Friday, and he’s expected to name his new cabinet that night.

Before we leave you, here’s a snap analysis from MEE’s Turkey Bureau Chief Ragip Soylu, who already has his eye on the future:

Erdogan appeared in Istanbul for the first time after polls indicated a comfortable win in the runoff elections, and what did he talk about? Another election, the municipal ones set for March 2024.

“Istanbul I’m in love with you and we will get you back,” he said, referring to the fact that the opposition controls the city.

He called on his supporters to rally for the municipal elections and take back the large cities his Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost in 2019.

That’s why Erdogan wins elections. Because he is always a step ahead. He takes everything very seriously, and runs a campaign based on polling and research. Yes, one of the main assets is his gut feeling and instincts, but he worked with a very good campaign team that prepared a strong strategy. Of course, he had certain advantages, such as state resources, and being able to offer jobs, wage hikes, free gas etc. But the opposition also had advantages: a president that is stained by a dragging economic crisis with a poor track record of human rights and a botched earthquake response.

Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, didn’t have a runoff strategy and crafted a spontaneous campaign. It took four days for him to come out of the shadows after the first-round failure. He made an unholy alliance with an ultranationalist to cross the finish line, which helped him a bit, but also damaged him too, as you could see in the lower turnout in Kurdish-majority areas.

People close to Kilicdaroglu would say he won a victory, since he single-handedly got 48 percent of the vote - a first for the opposition. Yet the Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader failed to congratulate Erdogan, nor did he concede. The 74-year-old also didn’t resign; he only said he was here to stay. The fate of his Table of Six opposition alliance isn’t clear.

If the opposition wants to retain the major cities like Istanbul, Ankara and Antalya, they need to find a way to stick together. Otherwise, Erdogan will have an easy time next year.

You can read Ragip’s election story, reported from Ankara alongside Yusuf Selman Inanc in Istanbul and Yunus Emre Oruc in London, below. Thanks and goodnight!

Erdogan defeats Kilicdaroglu and secures five more years in power