Egypt's military ties with Somalia defy Ethiopian ambitions and tilt power dynamic
A military pact between Cairo and Mogadishu has heightened tensions with Ethiopia, with analysts saying that the planned deployment of Egyptian troops in Somalia could fundamentally tilt the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
Egypt and Somalia began forging close military ties after Addis Ababa signed a 50-year deal with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, to establish a naval base and commercial port along 19km of its Red Sea coast.
According to the memorandum of understanding, signed on 1 January, Ethiopia will also formally recognise Somaliland in the future.
Egypt and Ethiopia have been at odds over the past decade due to Addis Ababa’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd), a hydroelectric dam that Egypt says poses a serious threat to its water security downstream.
The dam project has become a fait accompli, with construction nearing completion and power generation already underway.
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Egypt's response to Gerd has so far been limited to diplomatic pressure, including letters to the UN Security Council accusing Ethiopia of breaching international law. However, Cairo is taking a more forceful stance against Ethiopia's growing presence on the Red Sea.
Ammar Fayed, an analyst at the Asbab think tank, said Egypt is intent on preserving its maritime trade interests in the Gulf of Aden.
“If Ethiopia implements its agreement with Somaliland and gains access to a Red Sea port, Addis Ababa may once again become a maritime military power in the Horn of Africa,” Fayed told Middle East Eye.
“This, in turn, will be detrimental to Egypt's security, as it could impact navigation in the strategic Suez Canal.”
Attack on sovereignty
Somalia has denounced Ethiopia's deal with Somaliland as an attack on its sovereignty and territorial integrity, prompting it to seek alliances with nations that have tensions with Ethiopia - particularly Egypt and Eritrea.
Egypt expressed its support for Somalia’s territorial integrity following the agreement and forged closer military ties with Mogadishu by signing a defence deal in July to provide arms and training for Somali forces.
Egypt is also set to send 10,000 troops to Somalia, with half joining an African Union peacekeeping force and the other half deployed under a bilateral agreement with Mogadishu.
Egyptian forces are scheduled to begin their mission in January 2025, replacing the African Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), which includes troops from Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda and is slated to conclude its mandate by the end of 2024.
Landlocked Ethiopia has relied on Djibouti’s coast for commercial sea access since Eritrea's secession in the 1990s.
In March 2018, the Ethiopian government acquired a stake in the DP World Berbera New Port, a major commercial port on the coast of Somaliland.
The largest shareholder in the project is the Emirati company DP World, with a 51 percent stake, followed by Somaliland with 30 percent and Ethiopia holding the remaining 19 percent.
Abiy Ahmed, who became Ethiopia’s prime minister a month after the port deal was signed, has made securing Ethiopia’s access to the sea a strategic priority of his administration.
In 2019, Abiy signed a deal with France to rebuild the Ethiopian Navy, which had been disbanded after Eritrea's independence.
Egypt’s military support for Somalia has prompted speculation of a potential military confrontation with Ethiopia, especially in light of the prime minister's statements that his country is ready to repel any military attacks.
"Anyone intending to invade Ethiopia should think not just once, but 10 times, because one great thing we Ethiopians know is [how] to defend ourselves," Abiy said last month.
Ending Ethiopian dominance
Meanwhile, Somaliland said it rejects the presence of Egyptian forces in Somalia. On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Essa Kayd stated that the deployment contributes to proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa.
The Somaliland government has also decided to permanently close the Egyptian Cultural Library in Hargeisa, citing serious security concerns. All Egyptian staff were ordered on 11 September to leave the country within 72 hours, according to Kayd.
'An Egyptian military presence would reduce Ethiopia’s ability to meddle in Somali affairs'
- Yusuf Hassan, CU fellow
Yusuf Hassan, a fellow at the City University of Mogadishu (CU), said the Egypt-Somalia defence pact could potentially end Ethiopia's “33 years of uncontested dominance over Somalia”.
“Since the collapse of the Somali state, Addis Ababa has maintained a veto over the restoration of the Somali state by directly intervening militarily and indirectly through the creation, arming, and support of tribal enclaves,” Hassan said.
“These enclaves, scattered across the country, are Ethiopia's primary means of keeping Somalia fragmented, ensuring a weak central government incapable of asserting authority,” he told Middle East Eye.
Hassan argued that the Egyptian-Somali defence pact could fundamentally alter this power balance.
“An Egyptian military presence would reduce Ethiopia’s ability to meddle in Somali affairs, while Egypt’s military training and support for the Somali army could enhance Somalia’s ability to secure its borders and strengthen its sovereignty.”
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