Israel-Turkey ties continue to sour one year into the war on Gaza
When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed the opening of parliament last week, he warned that after Israel's wars on Gaza and Lebanon end, Turkey could potentially be next.
"The next place [Israel] will set its eyes on, I tell you clearly, will be our homeland," he said. "[Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu's dreams include Anatolia. Whatever the cost, Turkey will continue to stand against Israel and invite the world to this honourable stance," he added.
It was a stark departure from comments the 70-year-old made just a year ago when he met Netanyahu on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Back then, officials were boasting to the media that years after ties broke down in acrimony, they were finally on the up. According to the officials, both countries were ready to embark on a gas pipeline deal that could transport Israeli energy to Europe through Turkey.
But now, a year on, many of the extensive negotiations aimed at restoring bilateral relations have fallen by the wayside, with the leaders of both countries continually engaging in verbal spats.
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Turkish sources, speaking on condition of anonymity due to sensitivities surrounding the issue, said that while the Hamas-led attack on 7 October of last year caught Ankara by surprise, authorities were acutely aware that the blossoming relationship would not last long.
The sources said that many believed at the time that it was crucial the preserve relations, and in a bid to do so, Hamas leaders would temporarily leave the country.
Hamas had established an office in Turkey in 2011 when Ankara helped in negotiations to secure the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
However, a person familiar with the mediation talks that took place between Turkey and Israel years earlier told Middle East Eye that "it was made very clear to Israeli officials… that any war with Palestine or any major escalation [in the region] could totally spoil the relationship again.
"[The] Turks told them that the relationship must be mutually institutional to last amid political tensions."
According to the sources, the Turkish pitch was very clear: you have to anchor Israel into a political path that would guarantee a two-state solution to secure healthy Turkish-Israeli relations. Otherwise, relations risked breaking down during a major crisis.
Key agreements still in place
After Israel declared war on Gaza, a conflict which has so far claimed at least 41,000 Palestinian lives, Ankara positioned itself as a possible mediator.
However, in time, Turkish officials realised that Netanyahu was not interested in negotiating an end to the hostilities, and if Turkey pursued the role of mediator, its primary function would be to force Hamas into accepting Israeli demands.
With nearly 70 percent of Gaza's homes damaged or destroyed and the enclave cited as the most dangerous place in the world to be a child, Erdogan’s rhetoric began to escalate, and in April, he imposed a total trade embargo on Israel.
With Israel currently facing charges of genocide at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for its military campaign, following a case filed by South Africa in late December, several countries were forced to reassess their relations with Israel amid concerns they could be violating their duty to prevent genocide.
At the time, the Turkish trade ministry said the measures would remain in place until Israel allowed an "uninterrupted and sufficient flow" of aid into Gaza.
Pro-Palestine activists hailed the decision. But after this, several of the agreements signed between the two countries, including the 2022 aviation deal that allowed Israelis to fly to Turkey, were left in place.
Moreover, diplomatic ties were not downgraded. Instead, Turkey recalled its ambassador for consultations, while Israel withdrew its ambassador, citing security concerns.
As such, Turkish and Israeli diplomats still have relations depending on practical matters.
More importantly, Turkish and Israeli intelligence agencies still talk to each other.
In an attempt to circumvent the suspension of trade, a person familiar with the matter said goods are now being routed through third countries after Israel backed off from plans to impose additional taxes on Turkish products.
Sources said that in recent months both sides have acknowledged that a resumption of ties will be difficult until there is a sustainable ceasefire.
One Turkish source said the high death toll in Gaza has rendered Israel a regional pariah, with regional states now hesitant to openly engage with it.
The source cited the Saudi government’s change of heart on a possible normalisation deal, which now appears conditioned on Israel's commitment to a two-state solution.
"They aren't aware of it yet, but Israeli leaders won’t be able to find partners beyond smaller states in the Balkans for a while,” another Turkish source said.
'Both men have a pragmatic streak'
Israel observers, on the other hand, have acknowledged that the trust built in Turkey was now gone, and strategic cooperation was unlikely for several years to come.
They said another casualty of the war was the far-fetched gas pipeline deal.
For some, Netanyahu's increasing popularity at the polls also appears to have complicated matters, as it suggests he is likely to remain as prime minister until 2026.
'Once Harris and Erdogan build the same chemistry that Trump and Erdogan already have, I can see Harris enforcing some kind of reset'
- Soner Cagaptay, Washington Institute programme director
Soner Cagaptay, the director of the Turkish research programme at the Washington Institute, said Ankara was of the opinion that Netanyahu, who is facing charges of fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in three separate scandals involving powerful media moguls and wealthy associates, would eventually be voted out of office.
"Erdogan's criticism mostly targeted Netanyahu but not Israel," Cagaptay told MEE. "And that would have allowed Erdogan to reset Turkish Israeli ties with the new Israeli prime minister."
Another major issue that seems to have affected relations is the sidelining of Ankara from post-war reconstruction efforts in Gaza.
Turkish officials were interested in Ankara serving as a guarantor for a ceasefire and publicly expressed willingness to become a major player in the enclave. However, it appears the Israeli government does not have any plans to allow Erodgan’s government to play any role in post-ceasefire Gaza other than by providing humanitarian aid.
Retired Colonel Rich Outzen, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, believes Netanyahu and Erdogan will continue their tense co-existence in the near future.
"Both men have a pragmatic streak in the end," he told MEE. "Who could negotiate the intricate path back to meeting in the same room again? A push from Donald Trump might do the trick," he said.
Some Israeli sources, as well as Cagaptay, also agree that a lot depends on the next US leadership.
"Once [Kamala] Harris and Erdogan build the same chemistry that [former US President Donald] Trump and Erdogan already have, I can see Harris enforcing some kind of reset," he said.
But all the sources, officials and experts MEE spoke to said that any reset would be "cold" in nature and would only mean a practical relationship rather than a strategic one.
Cagaptay said that both countries are economically interdependent to each other.
Outzen added that Israel and Ankara also share common geopolitical interests, working within a general western-oriented foreign policy construct, inclining them to work with but resisting the hegemony of Russia, China, Iran or other global and regional revisionist powers.
But the Turkish sources MEE spoke to drew the line very clearly.
"There won't be any meaningful resolution to the Turkish-Israeli diplomatic crisis until Israel decides to end the occupation of Palestine," one source said.
"At least we will have to see Israeli political willingness and commitment to the path of a two-state solution."
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