US warns Israel that failure to increase aid to Gaza could have 'implications'

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin have warned Israel to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza or risk a reassessment of US military support, according to a letter obtained by Israeli news outlets on Tuesday.

The letter was addressed to Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer. 

It said Israel must allow 350 aid trucks a day into Gaza over the next 30 days. The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has said no aid trucks have entered the strip in October so far and most aid organisations estimate that around 700 trucks a day are needed to meet basic survival needs.

“In accordance with US law and policy, including National Security Memorandum 20 (NSM-20), the departments of state and defense must continually assess your government’s adherence to your March 2024 assurances that Israel would ‘facilitate and not arbitrarily deny, restrict or otherwise impede, directly or indirectly, the transport or delivery of United States humanitarian assistance and US government supported international efforts to provide humanitarian assistance’ to and within Gaza,” the letter stated.

The NSM-20 report referred to in the letter was released in May and largely avoided making legal determinations on potential Israeli violations of international law. Instead, it said Israel’s assurances about facilitating humanitarian aid were “credible and reliable” and that there were no grounds for suspending US weapons shipments.

The NSM-20 report also cited no violations of Section 620l of the Foreign Assistance Act, which prohibits US military support to governments that withhold humanitarian aid.

Earlier this year, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and a State Department bureau alerted the Biden administration that Israel was subjecting humanitarian aid destined for Gaza to "arbitrary denial, restriction and impediments".

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However, a month after the USAID and State Department memo, Blinken delivered a State Department report to Congress with a different conclusion, ignoring the memo.

Now, a year into Israel’s war on Gaza, Washington has said it wants to reassess the situation.

The letter also called for winter preparations that included allowing those who were forcibly displaced to “move inland” and an end to forced displacement from northern to southern Gaza. It further urged Israel to remove the bureaucratic barriers that prevent certain drivers and goods from entering the strip. 

Despite the US expressing doubts about the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (Unrwa) and its mission in Gaza, the letter advocated for the protection of the institution.

“We are deeply concerned about the potential adoption of Knesset legislation to remove certain privileges and immunities from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (Unrwa) and its staff, prohibit official contact with Unrwa, and change the status quo regarding Unrwa In Jerusalem,” Blinken and Austin wrote.

“We urge you to take all positive steps… to ensure this does not come to pass.”

Tougher line or strategic leak?

The language in the letter suggests a tougher line than Washington has previously taken, although White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby insisted in a call with journalists on Tuesday that “the letter was not meant as a threat”.

Kirby also added that it simply reiterated a position the administration had communicated to Israel in the past.

However, the letter raises important questions, particularly around the timeline for Israel to meet its obligations.

“From a humanitarian perspective, a 30-day deadline is basically a death sentence, especially for those in northern Gaza that are facing famine,” Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told Middle East Eye. 

The State Department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, called the timeline a “short window”. 

“We didn’t think it was appropriate to send a letter and just say this has to happen overnight,” he told reporters. “We believe it’s appropriate to give them a chance to cure the problem.”

With three weeks remaining until the US presidential election, Miller pushed back against suggestions that the timing of the letter was designed to shift attention to the new president-elect by the time the deadline arrives.

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Washington will not necessarily have to follow through on its threat under Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act. 

“In actuality, the US has rarely ever used this law. And even in times when there’s been a judgment that a US ally, like Turkey, for example, has been impeding aid, there is a waiver component to this that US officials have used in the past,” Hall told MEE.

“So, I’m sort of cautiously optimistic that this will lead to more positive outcomes for Gaza,” she said. 

The US has spent much of the past year taking credit for what Palestinians say is highly inadequate aid reaching Gaza.

The Biden administration attempted to build a humanitarian pier for goods off Gaza’s coast, but it failed and was dismantled due to weather conditions. It also tried airdrops, which proved deadly as recipients had to wade into deep water to retrieve the packages.

Earlier this spring, US President Joe Biden warned Israel against launching a “major operation” in Rafah, saying he might withhold some military support. 

However, Israel's Rafah offensive went ahead and the area was devastated, and Washington continued sending weapons to Israel.  

“There’s been some agreement between Israel and the United States about how much dissent to show publicly,” Hall told MEE.

“It strikes me that releasing, or leaking, supposedly, a letter like this seems to be strategic on both sides and doesn’t necessarily need to be tangible given the election coming up.”