Naim Qassem’s leadership may prompt larger Iranian role in Hezbollah

Naim Qassem's rise to the leadership of Hezbollah marks a new chapter for the Lebanese movement and may, at least in the short term, prompt Iran to take a more hands-on approach in directing its ally, people familiar with the party told Middle East Eye.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah said its consultative Shura Council had designated Qassem as Hassan Nasrallah's replacement, exactly a month after the previous secretary general was killed by Israel.

Qassem is one of the few known senior figures left alive after a brutal Israeli bombing campaign.

Despite the security risks associated with naming him as the new leader (Israel's defence minister immediately threatened that the appointment was "temporary"), a source close to Hezbollah told MEE that the party wanted to show that the Shura Council was still functioning and that it had managed to close gaps, reorganise ranks and fill the positions of slain leaders.

At the helm for 32 years, Nasrallah was known for his expertise in military matters and the regional dynamics of the Middle East.

Qassem's career has been quite different, and his lack of experience in these areas may leave strategic gaps.

"Qassem has long focused on domestic issues and theology and is not as versed in military strategy as his predecessors," Lebanese political and security analyst Ali Rizk told MEE.

"Nasrallah had reached a status where the Iranians used to rely on him on regional issues like Iraq and Yemen. I don't think that Qassem enjoys that same status with Iran, which could prompt Tehran to call the shots more."

Any rise in Iranian involvement, however, is unlikely to be overt. 

Hezbollah is primarily a Lebanese movement, drawing legitimacy from its constituents, who have made it the largest political party in Lebanon’s parliament.

Rizk said Tehran would likely step up its influence indirectly to avoid being seen as micromanaging its allies.

"The announcement itself was Hezbollah sending a message that its members are the ones steering the ship and not Iranian experts, as rumoured," the source close to Hezbollah said.

The old guard

Following Israel's killing of Nasrallah in a massive attack on Beirut on 27 September, Hashem Safieddine, whose personality was likened to Nasrallah's, was the presumed successor. However, he, too, was killed in an even larger strike on Beirut days later.

Subsequently, Qassem, who had long been Nasrallah's deputy, became the obvious choice. He is one of the last few publicly familiar figures in the party's leadership.

"He is the most familiar face from the old guard. He's the only familiar face you can say, and it would've been out of standard practice for Hezbollah to choose an unknown face," Rizk said.

By choosing a familiar figure, Hezbollah signalled continuity in its leadership, he added.

"Some might have thought Hezbollah would further delay this appointment under current conditions, but the decision to proceed demonstrates its resolve to uphold leadership stability."

The road ahead

Qassem’s appointment is not expected to impact Hezbollah’s overall strategy in its fight against Israel.

However, on the domestic political scene, Qassem is anticipated to make his mark. In recent years, he has been much more openly involved in Lebanese politics than his predecessor, who never appeared in public due to the threat of assassination.

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"We might see some changes in Hezbollah's leadership on the political front, a less conciliatory tone than the one adopted under Nasrallah. It could possibly lead to some increased friction between the party and other political actors in Lebanon," Rizk said.

Conversely, the source close to Hezbollah said that while Nasrallah was more moderate in his positions, it is possible that as the party’s secretary general, Qassem, known as a hardliner, might adopt a more measured stance.

"What is certain is that there are major challenges confronting Qassem today, as he will be facing political battles inside Lebanon, which will include issues surrounding the country's presidency and the party's weapons," the source said. 

Simultaneously, the source added, Qassem will be responsible for restructuring the party’s organisation, rallying people around him, restoring confidence and rebuilding the party’s pre-war standing.

Rizk said that Hezbollah may see Qassem as the right figure to lead in the current climate, with the United States and domestic rivals reportedly seeking to leverage any perceived weaknesses within Hezbollah to curtail its influence in Lebanon, particularly its veto power over presidential appointments.

An analyst close to Hezbollah, speaking on condition of anonymity to protect his relationships with the party, agreed that Hezbollah may now prioritise domestic matters, which have sometimes taken a back seat to regional issues.

'We might see some changes in Hezbollah's leadership on the political front, a less conciliatory tone than the one adopted under Nasrallah'

- Ali Rizk, analyst

"Qassem's personality is more local than Nasrallah, who previously assumed regional responsibilities that made him a figure with a regional character and dimension," the analyst told MEE.

During his time as Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah held a special status within the party that no one else had before him, the source close to Hezbollah said.

Nasrallah was both the secretary general and the representative of Iran's supreme leader on Hezbollah's Shura Council. This dual role, along with his massive popularity, enabled him to lead the party successfully for three decades.

With his death, the source said, the position of secretary general has returned to its "natural function", which is participatory and consultative, with a joint leadership making decisions that Qassem presents.

"The selection of Naim Qassem makes him a spokesman for the Shura Council on Lebanese issues and does not make him a decision-maker on regional issues as Nasrallah was, nor as Hashem Safieddine would have been," the analyst close to Hezbollah said.