Despite the losses and destruction, Hezbollah hasn't lost the war

The 14-month confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, which escalated into open war in the last two months, has resulted in 3,800 deaths and over 15,000 injuries in Lebanon.

Following the ceasefire announcement early on Wednesday morning local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed victory. But has Hezbollah lost this war?

As early as dawn, just two hours after the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel came into effect, thousands of displaced families, crammed into cars and vans, began their journey back to their destroyed villages in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Enormous traffic jams formed on the coastal highway leading to southern Lebanon, on the road to the Bekaa, and in the streets connecting Beirut to its southern suburbs.

The occupants of the vehicles raised their hands in a victory sign while waving Hezbollah flags and portraits of the party's historical leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by Israel on 27 September.

Despite the destruction, tears and the loss of loved ones, the crowd appeared joyful. They did not wait for the withdrawal of Israeli forces to return to their land, nor did they heed the advice of the Lebanese army, which issued a morning statement urging residents not to return home until the occupation forces had left.

Instead, they followed their feelings, as eloquently expressed in a televised speech by their leader, parliament speaker Nabih Berri: "Go back to your villages, find your fig trees and olive trees, return proudly to your villages because you have defeated the enemy."

Has Hezbollah truly emerged victorious from this war to be celebrated as a hero?

Losses and gains

In his speech on Tuesday evening, in which he announced Israel's acceptance of the ceasefire, Netanyahu claimed victory: "We have set Hezbollah back by a decade. Three months ago, this would have seemed like science fiction. But we did it. Hezbollah is no longer the same."

'Not only were Israel's objectives not achieved, but it also faced a new challenge: Drones, which the Iron Dome was unable to neutralise' 

- Walid Charara, analyst

Israel has killed Hezbollah's top political and military leaders, destroyed its social, financial, and medical institutions, bombed its military infrastructure, and killed and injured thousands of its fighters.

Dozens of villages have been erased from the map, thousands of homes reduced to rubble, and countless businesses devastated.

However, "the victory cannot be measured by the number of martyrs or the extent of destruction but must be based on the initial objectives of the war", according to Ahmad Noureddine, a history professor in southern Lebanon. "Stalingrad was razed and London destroyed during World War Two. Over 20 million Soviets died. Yet Russia and England won the war," he explained.

Elias Farhat, a retired Lebanese army general, also observed that Israel has failed to meet any of its goals. "After the assassination of Nasrallah and other high-ranking commanders, Netanyahu stated that he wanted to reshape the Middle East. During a tour on the Lebanese border, he said: 'With or without an agreement, the key to returning our people to the north is to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River and prevent it from rearming.' But Israel has achieved none of these objectives," he said.

The return of settlers to "northern Galilee" was merely the declared objective. According to many experts and analysts, Israel's true aim was to dismantle Hezbollah's ballistic missile arsenal, a strategic threat to Israel.

"Not only was this objective not achieved, but Israel also faced a new challenge: drones, which the Iron Dome was unable to neutralise," said analyst Walid Charara.

Failed objectives

"This Israeli war had not only military goals that were not achieved but also political goals," Abdel Halim Fadlallah, director of the Consultative Center for Research and Documentation, a think tank affiliated with Hezbollah, said.

"Netanyahu clearly expressed his objectives when he told his western allies that this war would be a prelude to fundamental political changes in Lebanon. That objective has failed, and Hezbollah was, and remains, the largest party in Lebanon in terms of popular representation, as shown by the recent parliamentary elections. It will continue to be the largest party in terms of institutions, as it has proven by quickly filling the military and political positions vacated by assassinations," Fadlallah added.

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Hezbollah will remain a key player in Lebanese domestic politics, and all attempts to marginalise it politically will fail.

The researcher stated: "Together with the Amal Movement, Hezbollah holds all the parliamentary seats allocated to the Shia community in the Lebanese parliament. It has allies in other communities, both Christian and Muslim, due to its reformist vision and commitment to resistance against Israel. Given Lebanon's confessional political structure, Hezbollah and Amal will maintain an important role in the national decision-making process."

The 13 points of the ceasefire agreement clearly show that it is largely based on UN Resolution 1701, which Lebanon had agreed to implement from the first days of the war without "any modification", as emphasised by Berri.

Contrary to Netanyahu's claims, the agreement does not grant the Israeli army freedom of movement in Lebanese territory. One of its clauses guarantees "Israel and Lebanon's inherent right to self-defence".

Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah also warned in a televised interview Wednesday that "the resistance has the right to defend itself" in the event of an Israeli attack.

The agreement does not explicitly mention Hezbollah's disarmament. It states that "all unauthorised facilities related to the production of weapons and related materials will be dismantled." It also adds that "all non-compliant military infrastructures and positions will be dismantled, and all unauthorised weapons will be confiscated."

These two clauses are ambiguous, as Hezbollah and Amal are represented within the executive power, and the principle of "resistance" has been legitimised by all Lebanese governments since the end of the civil war in 1990.

It is through the breach calling for the dismantling of military infrastructures and the confiscation of weapons that Hezbollah's adversaries within Lebanon, often tied to external political agendas, are likely to seize an opportunity.

Even though they are disappointed by the outcome of this war - they did not hide their hope of seeing Hezbollah eradicated by Israel - they do not consider themselves defeated. They are already preparing to clash with Hezbollah and its allies on domestic issues, particularly regarding the election of a president of the republic.

Hezbollah's opponents believe that now, as it is weakened and preoccupied with healing its wounds and those of its popular base, the party will withdraw its support for the candidacy of former minister and deputy Sleiman Frangieh. Their preferred candidate is the army chief, General Joseph Aoun, supported by the United States.

Remaining questions

Another critical question is the army's role in the coming period.

Will it accept a confrontation with Hezbollah, supported by more than half of the Lebanese population, by transforming into border guards serving Israel? Or will it continue to fulfil its primary mission of maintaining social order in Lebanon and preventing the conditions for a civil war from taking shape?

It is too early to answer these questions. However, certain political circles were displeased with the army's call urging residents of southern Lebanon not to return home until the Israeli withdrawal.

This is particularly significant, as the immediate, massive, and celebratory return of the displaced is one of the most important demonstrations of the failure of the Israeli war.

Another major challenge Hezbollah will face is the reconstruction of areas predominantly inhabited by Shia, which have sustained significant damage. In this regard, the researcher Fadlallah observed:

"Hezbollah will focus its efforts on reconstruction, especially since it has considerable experience in this area with the 'Waad' Foundation, which rebuilt the areas destroyed after the July-August 2006 war. It can rely on its efficient civil and administrative institutions, which are present in all Lebanese regions. The party will do everything necessary to ensure the return of residents, as promised by Secretary-General Na'im Qassem. However, it must not be forgotten that this is also the responsibility of the Lebanese state, which should make the primary contribution in this area."

For Elias Farhat, the situation is not so clear-cut: "With a powerless state and the absence of major donors and funding bodies, the biggest challenge Hezbollah faces is its ability to secure the financial needs for its popular base, which has lost its homes. Will it pay rent for a year and provide funds for furniture, as it did in 2006? Where will it find the money for such an operation?" asked the former general.

A Hezbollah source said that "money is not an issue" and that "reconstruction plans have already begun".

The coming months will bring answers to all these questions.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.