ANALYSIS: Rebel chief's assassination deals major blow to peace talks

Jaish al-Islam, a key Syrian rebel group regarded as one of the most credible opponents to Assad’s regime, put out a defiant video statement following the killing on Friday of their leader, Zahran Alloush.

“We will not change and we will not shift … this only increases our determination to fight the regime [of Bashar al-Assad],” a member of the group’s leadership council said, after the appointment of Abu Hamam al-Buyedhani as Alloush’s successor.

“Let the [supporters of Islamic State] welcome the swords of Ali’s descendants.”

Despite the group’s promise to continue deploying its thousands of fighters against both Assad and Islamic State (IS), analysts have said Alloush’s killing is a major blow to the opposition and comes at a crucial moment when the government is reaping the rewards from a Russian intervention on its side.

Aron Lund, editor of the Carnegie Endowment’s Syria in Crisis website, said Alloush had been a “rare successful centraliser” in Syria’s long-fractured opposition.

As a hardliner who had nonetheless signalled his willingness to discuss a political solution during regime-opposition talks scheduled to start in Riyadh in January, Alloush was a key figure.

“Those negotiations needed … Alloush to be involved for their credibility,” Lund said. 

Coming so soon before the start of scheduled peace talks, others saw Alloush’s killing as a clear sign that Syria and its Russian allies, which have been pounding the various opposition groups this week, are now not prepared to go to the negotiating table.

“This is a rejection of the Riyadh talks,” Ibrahim Hamidi, Syria correspondent for the al-Hayat newspaper, told the New York Times on Friday.

For its part, Jaish al-Islam has responded to Alloush’s killing by announcing that it will refuse any negotiations with the Syrian government.

The group has promised to deliver a “violent” response within the capital Damascus, which Alloush in February had declared a military zone.                                                                                                                                         

“Whatever your views, note that Alloush and Jaish al-Islam were supporting a political process in Syria,” said Salman Sheikh, a former director of the Brookings Institution.

“The strike spells the end of [upcoming peace talks in Riyadh]. It was a hard job before to get all parties to the table. Now it looks impossible. Expect more war.”

Though the Carnegie Endowment’s Lund had suggested that Alloush’s killing could cause any opposition cohesion to “unravel,” others predicted that his death could end up strengthening Jaish al-Islam.

Writing in Arabic-language news site Zaman al-Wasl, Syrian journalist Abdullah al-Raja recalled what has happened to Ahrar al-Sham, another key rebel group, since a bomb wiped out most of its leadership in September 2014.

“The killing of Ahrar al-Sham’s leadership taught [its other members] a lesson in revolutionary perseverance,” Raja wrote on Saturday.

“[The group’s new] policy of creating coalitions, which has helped to establish the Army of Conquest, has been one of Ahrar al-Sham’s biggest victories.

“Jaish al-Islam is now learning that same lesson.”