ANALYSIS: Palmyra a major blow for IS, but Assad still faces uphill struggle

There is one universally acknowledged positive to the Syrian army's recapture of Palmyra from the Islamic State (IS) group.

Its ancient ruins, which many feared would be destroyed by IS due to their abhorrence of pre-Islamic "idols," are likely now to remain safe as President Bashar al-Assad re-asserts himself as the custodian of Syria's antiquities.

“The liberation of the historic city is an important achievement and evidence of the efficacy of the strategy adopted by the Syrian army and its allies in the war on terrorism," Assad said on Sunday.

For the inhabitants of Palmyra, however, the recapture of the city by Assad's forces brings no respite.

“Palmyra is not now liberated - it just moved from one tyranny, one enemy control to another," Mohamed Alkhateb, a spokesman for the opposition group Palmyra Coordination, told Middle East Eye.

Many have hailed Palmyra's recapture on Sunday as a major strategic, as well as symbolic, victory for the Syrian government.

At its height, IS was believed to have controlled half of all Syrian territory. However, this area included vast deserts around Palmyra - meaning huge amounts of territory is now back in the hands of the government.

The IS defeat in Palmyra has been viewed by many as catastrophic for IS, with more than 400 fighters dead - a toll that makes it the "heaviest losses that IS has sustained in a single battle since its creation," according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

On Monday, the pro-government al-Watan newspaper quoted the Syrian army’s general command as saying Palmyra would open up the route to further IS strongholds.

Its capture "represents a base to widen military operations that our heroic forces are undertaking against the Islamic State, from several directions, most notably Deir Ezzor and Raqqa, and will tighten the noose on IS and cut off their supply lines," the statement said.

Syrian state TV footage of damage in civilian areas of Palmyra

The capture of 190km road between Deir Ezzor and Palmyra will allow Assad’s forces to isolate IS hotspots in Hama, Raqqa and eastern Aleppo from the group's Iraqi strongholds.

According to Abu al-Abbas, a civilian who fled Palmyra, IS is likely to regroup in the town of Sukhnah, on the Deir Ezzor road, where they will be able to organise car bombs and other offensive strategies.

Abbas told the Syria Direct website that Sukhnah would prove a "nightmare" for Assad's forces.

Assad's recapture of Palmyra raises two more crucial issues - firstly, with the help of his allies, the prospect of victory over the opposition appears once more on the horizon, as territory falls back into government hands. The more this continues, the less reason Assad has for seeking a negotiated end to the conflict.

“Assad already has no interest in Geneva talks and transition," wrote analyst Charles Lister on Twitter. “His victory in Palmyra removes any reason for him to discuss political change."

Secondly, it re-asserts to the international community the image of Assad as the best ally against IS.

Numerous politicians across Europe have already begun to change their tune on Assad and have started to advocate his remaining in power, so long as the threat from IS remains.

Spain's foreign minister, Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, in November declared Assad to be the “lesser evil" in the war against IS, while his UK counterpart Philip Hammond called for Assad to stay in power for a "transition period".

London's mayor Boris Johnson weighed in on Sunday, declaring Assad to be a “monster" but nevertheless applauded him for the recapture of Palmyra.

“The first is that no matter how repulsive the Assad regime may be – and it is – their opponents in Islamic State... are far, far worse," he wrote in the Sunday Telegraph.

“These are the people who have carved out this foul statelet in the desert, this dark star whose tractor beam of evil has sucked in so many pathetic would-be jihadists from Britain and other countries in western Europe."

The relatively successful maintenance of a ceasefire in Syria has left time for all sides in the conflict to regroup. The exclusion of IS and the al-Qaeda's affiliate, the Nusra Front, however, has led to a greater focus on these two groups.

Assad's forces used the opportunity of the ceasefire to build up his forces' anti-IS credibility.

Hassan Hassan, an associate fellow at Chatham House, told Middle East Eye that Assad's supporters had long pushed for him to portray himself as the only bulwark against IS and their ilk.

“Now these same supporters are saying the regime should focus on Raqqa next to cement the idea that the Assad regime is the only effective force against extremists," he said.

Inconvenient truths

But while Assad’s confidence may have been boosted by the recapture of Palmyra, it has also raised a number of uncomfortable facts.

Most prominent has been to once again expose how reliant his successes in the last six months have been on Russian support.

Scott Lucas, the editor-in-chief of EA WorldView website warned on Tuesday that Assad simply "could not have regained the city" without Russian and other foreign support.

In this light, the decision by Russia to partially withdraw its forces earlier this month can be seen as a way of applying pressure to Assad to seriously engage with the opposition and make clear to him who really controls the balance of power in Syria now.

Edward Dark, an Aleppo-based Syrian analyst, said: "This is beginning of a new phase, the implementation on the ground of US-Russian agreements over Syria, the priority being fighting IS while pushing for ceasefire and calm.

"The Russians have done some arm-twisting and forced Assad to play by the rules, threatening to pull out their air support. The Americans have done the same by keeping the rebel fronts mostly quiet."

The continuation of the ceasefire and the need to appear willing to participate in the Syrian peace process also means that Assad's focus is likely to move from opposition strongholds such as Aleppo or East Ghouta and instead focus on IS-controlled Raqqa and Deir Ezzor - the capture of which would provide the president with an enormous boost in the eyes of the international community.

“Could Assad take Raqqa? Maybe if Iran sends more militias and there’s a truce where the Assad regime knows for a month at least where there will be no fighting," said Hassan Hassan.

He added taking of Palmyra and the revitalisation of the government as an anti-IS force was a sad irony considering the previous effectiveness of the opposition in driving the group from much of Syria in 2014.

"When the opposition fought IS it was more spontaneous than this cynical game which is happening today," he said.