As winter approaches in Lebanon, border conflict intensifies

BEIRUT - Winter is fast approaching and poses a deadly threat for fighters battling it out in the Qalamoun mountain range, a slice of high terrain along the border between Syria and Lebanon.

Hemmed in by the Syrian military and Hezbollah on one side, and the Lebanese army and Hezbollah again on the other, militants from the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) are desperately trying to wind down the fighting season and regroup safely on lower ground.

The remote, hilltop border town of Arsal in Lebanon, where 42,000 registered Syrian refugees outnumber the 35,000 largely sympathetic Sunni residents, has been singled out as one such lower-elevation safe spot.

Sparked on 2 August, a ferocious five-day battle between Islamic militants and the Lebanese army in Arsal ended with an estimated 19 security forces killed and 30 captured by IS and JN. About 21 of the hostages remain in captivity.

Since then, IS and JN have demanded an exchange of the hostages for up to 150 Islamist prisoners in Lebanon’s Roumieh prison. Many are affiliated with the former terrorist group, Fatah al-Islam, as well as the Abdullah Azzam brigade. Some are JN members.

Terrifying a Lebanese population whose popular support for the Lebanese army crosses sectarian lines, IS has beheaded two soldiers so far, and threatens to execute more.

In Beirut’s downtown Martyr’s Square, the families of the hostages have had enough. Wracked with worry, they are camped out until the government meets demands for a prisoner swap. Family members are nervous about voicing support for the Lebanese army or denouncing IS to the media, for fear of further retribution by the militant group.

Gruesome images of Ali Sayyed, a 30-year old Sunni soldier from the impoverished district of Akka, circulated on 28 August. He was the first of the captives to be beheaded by IS. The group executed Abbas Medlej, a 20-year old Shiite soldier from Baalbek, less than two weeks later.

“We came to Martyr’s Square to express our discontent, because when we protest in Akkar, no-one is paying attention,” said Hussam Sayyed, the uncle of Ali Sayyed. “We want to tell the government they are not doing enough. We have martyrs, like Ali, and we want the others to be released.”

Qatar is the broker of choice for Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam and General Security head, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, for its ties and influence with groups like JN. Most recently, Qatar successfully negotiated the release of five Lebanese soldiers in Arsal and 45 Fijian UN peacekeepers in the Golan Heights, all held captive by JN.

“JN has already shown some flexibility and has liberated five soldiers as a good will gesture, while ISIS are more hard-line negotiators,” said Mario Abou Zeid, an analyst with the Carnegie Middle East Center. “JN already knows some of the Roumieh prisoners have defected and pledged allegiance to ISIS, and so they have no interest in liberating them anymore.”

“What JN is trying to do is improve the conditions of their fighters,” Zeid said. “They want some narrow corridors along the Lebanese-Syrian border, whether in Arsal or other areas, where they can resupply their fighters to then go back to Syria and fight. These are their terms, and this is the big difference from ISIS.”

“ISIS is the complete opposite of that. They are looking to liberate Islamist prisoners in Roumieh because they want to create the enabling environment needed to infiltrate Lebanese territory and extend towards the Mediterranean.”

Security in Lebanon remains tense. Last week, car bombs were found and disarmed in Arsal and the southern coastal town of Sidon, and suspected Islamic militant sleeper cells have been uncovered.

Since the August battle, the army has regained all control points around Arsal, although supply lines for the fighters remain. Inside the besieged border town, Syrian refugees, many who view IS and JN as protectors, are at odds with residents, who are beginning to blame them for the violence.

There are over one million Syrian refugees in Lebanon, and their already vulnerable communities are at risk for attack in retribution for the country’s ongoing instability.

The Lebanese security forces received a $1 billion donation from Saudi Arabia for counter-terrorism after the Arsal clashes, and the US has added military aid with arms and equipment deliveries.

Retired Lebanese army general Elias Farhat believes that Lebanese and US security interests will prevent a prisoner swap from taking place, but that there is no military strategy to combat Islamic militant groups on the ground.

“If we want to launch an attack, we need to do it in coordination with the Syrians, but there has been no Lebanese government decision to talk to the Syrians,” he said.

“And it’s difficult for the Lebanese army to tackle the situation as they are not equipped with helicopters, missiles and modern tanks to conduct such operations,” Farhat adds. “They are doing as best they can, but I think ISIS is more equipped than the army.”

Amina is the mother of Hussain Zacharia, another soldier taken hostage by IS in Arsal. She has traveled from her town in Akkar to protest in Beirut. Amina said her neighbors were scared to tell her the identity of her son’s kidnappers, in essence telling her that the worst-case scenario she could imagine had happened. “Because they were IS. And Ali Sayyed was killed by them,” she said. “They were together.”

“Our religion is a loving religion,” she added quietly. “It’s not about killing. The prophet Mohammed said Muslims should not kill Muslims.”

Analyst Mario Abou Zeid believes violence will escalate both inside Lebanon and Syria. “We are approaching winter and the fighting must be over by then. Most fighters cannot survive the cold weather on the Qalamoun,” he said.

“This is why everyone is trying to find an agreement. The fighters need to find refuge in the territory for the winter, and Hezbollah is pushing to surround and destroy them before winter sets in.”