Despite the Europe drama, Turkey's 'Yes' campaign is in trouble

If it goes ahead, the Turkish referendum, scheduled for 16 April, could usher in the biggest constitutional change in the republic’s history.

Of this fact, there is no denial and both sides in the debate have already adopted in their vocabulary the notion that the switch from a parliamentary system to an executive presidency would be “the most extensive” change in Turkey’s history.

What are the strengths of each side in this campaign?

The Yes side

The biggest boost for the Yes side is that the government supports the referendum. Those in government, in other words those in power, traditionally set the political order. And power, in this instance, is personified in the political persona of the incumbent president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

As both the prime minister and the president are running the Yes campaign, they face no problems financing it. The Yes campaign is state-funded while the No campaign has a much smaller budget.

Importantly, the discretionary funds available to the premiership and presidency in February - $77.5m - increased by 72 percent from January, and 65 percent compared to the previous year. 

• READ - Five reasons Erdogan will win the Turkish referendum 

The government’s burden is further lightened by the fact that a significant portion of the mass media is on the Yes side. Many of the TV channels carry the president’s speeches live, and many Turkish dailies quote the president’s words every day.

The state of emergency declared in the aftermath of the coup attempt on 15 July is also still in place. Apart from allowing the sacking of academics and the arrest of many who had nothing to do with the coup attempt, the state of emergency gives the government primacy to legislate. This power, exercised under a state of emergency, is the ultimate source of political oppression and it provides the legal basis for the Yes campaign.

The Yes campaign is, in fact, not winning the argument on constitutional grounds. Their main argument is “powerful governance”, yet the AKP has been in power for the past 15 years and, during that time, has formed eight different governments. The Yes campaign promises to end coalition goverments which it says is an "evil". In the past 24 years, there has only been one coalition government, from 1991-2000, a period of economic growth and democratic development. 

The No campaign 

The No campaign relies on the feared consequences of the change itself. People are frightened of one-man rule in Turkey, especially if that rule extends to the judiciary and the legislature.

Opinion polls show that while the MHP and the BBP are in the Yes camp, the people who voted for them are not

The government is constantly going on about the services they have provided but they struggle to find positive arguments in favour of the change itself. In 2010, the last time a constitutional referendum was held, academics, authors and artists all supported the change. Now they do not.

Opinion polls show that while the party organisations of the Nationalist Moverment Party (MHP) and the Great Unity Party (BBP) are in the Yes camp, the people who voted for them are not.

The rival claims of the Yes and No camp are actually empowering voters. The prime minister and the president accuse the No campaign of being “terrorists”, but the No campaign has nationalists who have been combatting terrorism for years. 

• READ - Erdogan may win the referendum, but Turkey will lose 

The sessions that parliament has held to debate the proposed change of system have been hurried and conducted without care to detail or expert opinion. The No campaign has been refused airtime on TV channels. All of this has influenced popular opinion in favour of the No camp.

One of the proposed changes could lay the foundations for a federal state structure, rather than a unitary one. This is also not going down well in the No camp. 

Foreign affairs, especially the campaign in Syria, is now a domestic issue in Turkish politics. Turkey’s campaign in Syria and the fact that the country hosts more than three million Syrian refugees has stronger opposition in the Yes camp than it does in the No camp.

The economic downturn, the rise in unemployment, the drop in the value of the currency, the crisis in the tourism industry and with exports are all weakening the argument for Yes.

The 'crisis' in the Netherlands

Although it is too early to say, opinion polls have the No vote rising and overtaking the Yes vote. The government is powerless to change the economic situation or the war in Syria. So was the crisis in the Netherlands just coincidence?

On 6 March, in answer to a question about the government’s campaign in the Netherlands, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on television: “Since the Netherlands’ elections are set to be on 14 March, it’s not possible to be there for the referendum, so we’ll not be going.”

• READ - Checkmate in Syria: Erdogan's gambit with Putin is not paying off

However, despite an official warning from The Netherlands "not to come", Turkey's minister of foreign affairs insisted on going to Rotterdam, where most AKP voters live, five days later. His unannounced intention to go to the city turned into a diplomatic crisis, and then into a major boost for the Yes campaign. So was it all happenstance?

There is actually a Turkish law dating back to 2008 which prohibits electioneering abroad. It states: "No election propaganda can be made by representatives in foreign countries, at customs or abroad.” In a 15 February 2017 decree, the Supreme Election Committee also forbids election campaigning overseas. Despite all this, what was the reason to insist?

The diplomatic crisis with the Netherlands fuelled a series of protests which were acts of controlled rage. A sequence of furious declarations were followed by Nazi comparisons, with the Netherlands backed by other European countries. This, in turn, influenced the debate at home, with the AKP insisting that the crisis played into the hands of the Yes vote. 

No opinion polls have been published since the Netherlands crisis, so it could be that it had a limited effect on popular opinion. And this creates an interesting paradox: despite its dominance over the economy and the media, the government has lost the confidence it had to swing public opinion, the first time in ten years that this is the case.

No one can say what the result will be, but one thing is certain: the prevailing wind is blowing against the government right now.  

- Ali Mert Taşcıer is a political adviser in Turkey's parliament. He was born in 1983 in Turkey and is currently working on a PhD in political science. 

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Photo: People hold letters reading "No" and shout slogans as they march over the Galata bridge, on 2 April 2017, in Istanbul during a protest against the upcoming referendum (AFP)