How US policy in the Middle East is unravelling
The drums of regional war are once again reverberating across the Middle East.
In a move signalling the gravity of the situation, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin this week informed Israel's Defence Minister Yoav Gallant of the accelerated deployment of the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to the region alongside the submarine USS Georgia.
On Tuesday, the Biden administration approved $20bn in weapons sales to Israel.
This escalation comes in anticipation of possible Iranian retaliation for Israel's recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
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But Iran may not act alone.
A coordinated retaliatory strike by Iran and its allies, particularly Hezbollah, also in retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr, a top Hezbollah military commander, seems increasingly likely.
Whether this wave of escalation will be limited or spiral into a regional war is uncertain. What's clear is that the consequences could be catastrophic, not just for the Middle East but for the world.
As we stand on the precipice of what could be a decisive turning point in the region's history, it is essential to ask how we got here.
Flawed strategy
Over the past 10 to 15 years, there has been much debate within policy circles in Washington and beyond about a perceived shift in the US approach to the Middle East.
Many have questioned whether the US was pivoting away from the region. But in truth, the US has never wavered in its interest in the Middle East, an area rich in resources and strategically critical due to its geopolitical significance, particularly in the context of tensions involving Russia, China and Iran.
What has occurred, particularly during the Trump administration and continuing under Biden, is not a pivot but rather a recalibration.
Netanyahu is counting on the US and its allies to do his bidding to keep the region in a state of perpetual war
Faced with the need to focus on Asia-Pacific and the war in Ukraine, the US has sought to create a regional alliance loyal to its interests. This alliance, dependent on the US for arms and technology, was designed to maintain the status quo in ways that serve American interests.
The Abraham Accords, far from being peace agreements, were, in fact, a military, surveillance and security alliance between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and others, orchestrated to keep the region under US hegemony.
This strategy, however, was fundamentally flawed.
The creation of this alliance deliberately excluded the Palestinians and ignored the fact that real peace and stability in the region could only come through addressing their plight.
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Instead, Israel saw the Abraham Accords as an opportunity to bypass the Palestinian question entirely, using the newfound regional atmosphere and arrangements to intensify its aggressive policies, particularly in the West Bank, in the months leading up to 7 October.
The Biden administration did not depart from former President Donald Trump's approach. Instead, it doubled down, pushing for normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia without addressing the underlying issues.
The goal was clear: establish an alliance that would not replace the US in the region but complement its efforts, allowing Washington to focus its energies on Asia and Europe.
Yet this arrangement came crashing down on 7 October as the myth of Israeli military and intelligence superiority was shattered in mere hours when Hamas carried out its Al-Aqsa Flood operation.
For decades, Israel has been marketed as a formidable, invincible military power, a key partner in ensuring American dominance in the Middle East.
But now, after 10 months of brutal genocide and fierce battles in Gaza, Israel finds itself mired in a quagmire, unable to secure a decisive victory against Hamas and other Palestinian factions.
The same Israeli military that once defeated the combined armies of three Arab states in six days during the 1967 war is now struggling against guerrilla forces in Gaza.
This is the Israeli regime that US policymakers have counted on as a military ally essential to American interests in the region, yet it has proven incapable of achieving a decisive victory against factions in Gaza.
Further entanglement
Today, as Israel continues to be bogged down in Gaza, it seeks to provoke the possibility of a regional war on top of the ongoing Gaza war.
Netanyahu is counting on the US and its allies to do his bidding to keep the region in a state of perpetual war.
For this reason, Israel violated Iranian sovereignty twice, and now, fearing Iranian retaliation, it is relying on the US, as well as western and Arab states, to shield it from what is likely to be a limited Iranian retaliation intended to re-establish a balance of power and deterrence in the face of Israeli aggression.
While Iran and its state and non-state allies aim to re-establish deterrence, it is difficult to imagine that the situation will not escalate into a larger confrontation.
Given the scale and complexity of the ongoing tensions, which span wide territories and involve numerous actors, any step could either de-escalate tensions or ignite further violence.
For US policymakers, however, rather than recognising that true stability in the Middle East requires addressing the root causes of tension and conflict - including the Palestinian issue - the US has persisted with an approach rooted in force, alliance with oppressive regimes, and disregard for human rights.
Now, with Israel poised to drag the US into yet another war, the very strategy that was supposed to spare American resources, albeit for strategic reasons, is leading to further entanglement, and this is mainly due to Washington's blind and unconditional support for Israel.
This is the price of a policy built on illusions and short-term gains.
Will policymakers in Washington learn their lesson this time? Will Americans once again find themselves embroiled in a wider war in the Middle East? No one knows for sure. But what is certain is that we are at a history-defining moment, and whatever comes next will not resemble what came before.
Wise leaders and policymakers in the US must urgently reconsider their country's Middle East strategy.
Continuing to rely on alliances with oppressive regimes and occupying powers while ignoring the legitimate rights and aspirations of the people in the region, particularly the Palestinians, has only led to greater bloodshed and instability.
A new approach - one that prioritises diplomacy, human rights, and a genuine commitment to peace - is not only necessary but imperative.
The future of the Middle East and the role of the US within it hinges on this critical shift.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
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