Lieberman, the resigning opportunist

"Avigdor Lieberman is the most dangerous Israeli politician and once he is Prime Minister it will mean transfer for Israeli-Palestinians and an end to Israeli democracy."   

"Avigdor Lieberman is the most pragmatic Israeli politician and once he is Prime Minister he will put this pragmatism into action, so only he and his ideas can lead Israel toward a peace settlement."
   
Israeli journalists and opinion makers can fight to the death trying to prove which of these versions of Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is correct, but they are quite united in one assessment: Lieberman has the best political instincts in the field and when he sees an opportunity, when he finds weakness on the other side, he jumps on it. Or rather jumps out of it, like mice out of a sinking boat. Netanyahu's boat, in this case.   

Lieberman has a reputation of resigning at the right moment. Although it was Netanyahu who brought him from complete anonymity to the influential job of Director General of the Prime Minister's office in 1996, during his first term in power, he didn't hesitate to resign less than two years later, when he felt that Netanyahu was losing ground in the eyes of the Israeli public. Netanyahu lost the next elections in 1999 and, by then, Lieberman was an established politician, using his fame and connection to get elected to the Knesset (parliament) for the first time.   

Lieberman resigned again in 2001, during the first Sharon government, only to double his strength in the Knesset in the next elections to 11 seats. He did it for a third time while Ehud Olmert was Prime Minister in 2008.  

At the time, Olmert's popularity rates were the lowest in Israeli history after what was perceived as a crashing failure in the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel. Yet Lieberman was smart enough not to use this failure as his excuse for resigning. The alleged reason was the government's decision to open negotiations with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on a final status agreement with the Palestinian. The negotiation led to nothing and Lieberman came back in the next election in 2009 with 15 seats, the third largest party, and his biggest electoral achievement so far.   

Now Lieberman is doing it again, but this time he is staying in the government. After a meeting this morning with Netanyahu, following a less than diplomatic exchange between the two in a government meeting the day before, Lieberman announced his decision to break off the electoral alliance of his party, Israel Beitenu (Israel Our Home) with Netanyahu's Likud, but to stay in the government as Foreign Minister. His message seems quite clear: Netanyahu is not to be feared, he is weak and his days as Prime Minister might be counted. Lieberman has never tried to conceal his personal dislike for Netanyahu, his former boss, but his decision today to break off with the Prime Minister has nothing to do with personal affections at this point, it is all about politics.

Lieberman didn't name Gaza in his disengagement words from Netanyahu, but he did not hide the fact that he is not happy with the "weak" government response to the missiles attacks on Israel's south. "The reality of hundreds of missiles at the hands of a terrorist organization… is unbearable. All these suggestions that we should wait, contain and postpone – I don't understand what we are waiting for", he said.

Yet although Lieberman favours a ground operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, it would be naïve to think his decision to quit the Likud is purely ideological.  Less than years ago, while explaining the government's decision to stop operation "Pillar of Defense" without ground operation, he said that "being mighty means not only to hit, but also to restrain".     

Lieberman's move highlights Netanyahu's peculiar political position. On the one hand, he is seen most fit to be prime minister in every opinion poll, with a large margin against all opponents. On the other hand, he is having trouble passing simple political resolutions. The breakdown of the talks with Abbas in April has put pressure on Justice Minister Tzipi Livni to leave the government, as her only reason for joining in the first place was her nomination as head of negotiation with the Palestinians. The unity government between Hamas and Fatah has given her an excuse to stay on, but the dissatisfaction within her party, The Movement, is growing and its seems that time is running out for her. If Livni leaves, it will be very difficult for the Yesh Atid party, headed by Treasury Minister Yair Lapid, to stick to his job.  

The kidnapping and murdering of the three young settlers is also putting Netanyahu in an uncomfortable position. In the operation against Hamas in the West Bank, hundreds of activists were arrested, offices affiliated with the movement were shut down and the lives  of millions of Palestinians were disrupted, but it failed to satisfy the calls for "revenge"  expressed by right-wing leaders like Naftali Bennett from the Jewish Home party or even members within Netanyahu's own party. Netanyahu, maybe more aware then his colleagues of Israel's difficult international standing, is making efforts not to overreact. The violent demonstrations in Arab Israeli villages following the murder of the Palestinian teenager in East Jerusalem are waking the specter of a new intifada, making the right wing even more thirsty for "strong" action against the Palestinians, and cornering Netanyahu even further. His freedom of movement is extremely limited, if non-existent.         

Lieberman wants to be prime minister. He looks around and he is confident nobody in Israel is more suitable for the job. He wants his hands to free the moment Netanyahu's government collapses, even if takes a few months. He is well connected and has many options, from a coalition with his long-time friend Livni or his new friend Lapid or his veteran friends from the orthodox parties. What is really worrying is that the recent embryonic civil war between Palestinians and Jews inside Israel is seen by Lieberman as an opportunity - an opportunity to turn his constant confrontations with the Israeli Palestinian community, whom he depicts as the internal enemy, into a political and electoral gain and his key to the Prime minister's office.      

- Meron Rapoport is an Israeli journalist and writer, winner of the Napoli International Prize for Journalism for an inquiry about the stealing of olive trees from their Palestinian owners. He is ex-head of the News Department in Haaertz, and now an independent journalist.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Photo credit: An Israeli soldier stands on a tank positions on the Israeli side of the border with the Gaza Strip on Monday (AFP)