A wasted chance to end Yemen's conflict?

On 7 October, it was reported that Yemen's Houthi rebels and their ally, former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, had accepted a peace plan brokered by the UN in Oman, as well as Security Council resolution 2216 of April this year. Saleh reiterated his acceptance in a TV interview five days later, adding that he was willing to quit his leadership of Yemen's largest party, the General People's Congress (GPC), to facilitate an end to the conflict.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's chief spokesman Stephane Dujarric was right to describe this as "an important step," and Yemen's internationally recognised government and its allies should have acknowledged it as such. They had been insisting all along that an end to the conflict must be based on prior acceptance of resolution 2216.

The resolution reaffirmed the "legitimacy" of President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, expressed alarm at the Houthis' "military escalation," and condemned "in the strongest terms" their "ongoing unilateral actions".

It also demanded that the Houthis "immediately and unconditionally ... end the use of violence; withdraw their forces from all areas they have seized, including the capital Sanaa; relinquish all additional arms seized from military and security institutions," and "refrain from any provocation or threats to neighbouring states".

Rejection

As such, acceptance of the resolution by the Houthis and Saleh meets the demands of the government and its allies, and is tantamount to a victory for the latter. It also represents the most important opportunity to end the conflict since it began. Unfortunately, however, the reception has been wholly dismissive.

"There must be an announcement of willingness to implement all articles of the resolution without any changes," said Hadi's press secretary, Mokhtar al-Rahbi. "We are ready to go to any talks after a clear acceptance of the implementation of the UN resolution."

However, it should suffice that acceptance came in the form of a Houthi letter to Ban and a TV announcement by Saleh. Both were clear, and most importantly acceptance was in writing and to the mediating party. Al-Rahbi claimed that the acceptance had come with conditions, but Reuters, which said it had seen the letter to Ban, reported that the Houthis "fully accepted" resolution 2216.

Given past experience, it is understandable why the Yemeni government has described the acceptance as a "manoeuvre". The Houthis have reneged on previous agreements, which set the stage for the current conflict, and Saleh has continued to play spoiler since a popular revolution led to his overthrow almost four years ago.

However, if the government believed that it was a bluff, it should have called that bluff. That would have hurt the standing of the Houthis and Saleh domestically, regionally and internationally. As it stands, the government is making itself look intransigent.

Al-Rahbi said the "manoeuvre" came after "painful strikes" against the rebels, but that is not reason enough to be dismissive. It can equally be said that the government's rejection is itself a "manoeuvre".

It could be seen as a stalling tactic in light of significant advances in recent weeks against the Houthis and Saleh's forces, including the latter's retreat from five southern provinces since July, and the government's return last month to Yemen's second city Aden after months in exile in Saudi Arabia.

If the government believes a solution must follow the outright military defeat of its enemies, it will likely be disappointed. The Houthis and Saleh may now be on the defensive, but they still control much of the country, including the capital.

Following the government's rejection, Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi on Tuesday urged "everyone" to "move to the front lines" against "an invasion and attempts to occupy the country". He added: "We cannot sacrifice our dignity and freedom and independence. We will defend our land and our honour." He may not have made this call had the government accepted his olive branch - we will never know.

Prolonged conflict

The stage is now set for the prolongation of the conflict, and hence the suffering of the Yemeni people, for the foreseeable future. There have reportedly been more than 5,000 fatalities, and according to the UN, as of late September 2,355 civilians had been killed and 4,862 wounded.

"Horrific human rights abuses, as well as war crimes, are being committed" by all parties to the conflict, "causing unbearable suffering for civilians," Amnesty International said last month. "Civilians bear the brunt of the violence in Yemen. As well as causing the deaths and injuries of civilians, the conflict has exacerbated an already severe humanitarian crisis."

Amnesty added that "much of the world has ignored this raging conflict and heard little about its devastating consequences." That should provide no comfort to the warring parties, as the people on whose behalf they claim to be speaking and acting are all too aware.

Any party that is seen as prolonging the conflict will lose domestic support - in the case of the government, that will make an already difficult job much harder. Even if it eventually managed to defeat the Houthis and Saleh in a conventional military sense, it would likely face a prolonged insurgency.

That in addition to a resurgence of Southern separatist sentiment, as well as continued attacks by al-Qaeda, which has gained significant ground since the conflict began, and the Islamic State (IS) group, which has since managed to establish a presence in Yemen (Prime Minister Khaled Bahah last week escaped an attack on the hotel where he was staying, which was claimed by IS).

Government intransigence may also create strains within the Arab coalition that has been directly backing it since March. The longer the campaign goes on, the more likely it is that member states will face domestic pressure to extract themselves from what may be viewed as a costly and intractable quagmire.

Saudi Arabia, which heads the coalition, will also likely want a resolution in Yemen at a time when its backing for Syrian rebels may be ramped up to counter increased Russian and Iranian involvement in Syria, and when the Saudi economy feels the pinch from high state expenditure and low oil prices.

In February, I wrote an article entitled "Yemen's Houthis may be overreaching". Having wasted a potential opportunity to resolve the conflict, a confident government may now be in danger of doing the same.

- Sharif Nashashibi is an award-winning journalist and analyst on Arab affairs. He is a regular contributor to Al Arabiya News, Al Jazeera English, The National, and The Middle East magazine. In 2008, he received an award from the International Media Council "for both facilitating and producing consistently balanced reporting" on the Middle East. 

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye. 

Photo: File picture shows former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh (AFP)