Where now for Turkey’s Gul?

On 28 August, Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul steps down after seven years in office, making way for his successor, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s first-ever popularly elected head of state. All eyes in Turkey are now on two questions: who will succeed Erdogan as prime minister and head of the ruling Justice and Development Party and, linked to this, what will be the future of Gul, still only 63 years old, Last week he announced that he intends to go back into politics in the AKP. But what will be his future there?

Though a good many Western Turkey-watchers would have liked to see it, a Turkish equivalent of a Putin/Medvedev job swap has already been ruled out. Gul is not going to be prime minister or chosen to lead the AKP. The Party has pointedly set the date for voting on a successor for 27 August, when Gul is still head of state and thus ineligible. In any case he is not a member of the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) and there seems no prospect of his becoming one before the 2015 elections.

Nor is he necessarily going to be welcomed back with open arms into an AKP which has changed radically since 2007.

“There is no impediment to his rejoining the party,” Erdogan told reporters at a farewell reception for Gul at the presidential palace on Tuesday this week in what sounded a distinctly lukewarm reply.

In its early years, the AKP government looked rather like a Gul-Erdogan diarchy. Erdogan was the charismatic strongman, driving through major infrastructural projects, taking credit for high living standards, denouncing Israel for its actions in Gaza, and making powerful speeches to vast rallies.

Gul projected a softer image, befitting his role first as foreign minister and then as a figurehead president. But as Erdogan has grown ever more dominant on the Turkish political scene, taking all the major decisions himself and consulting only with a limited circle of confidants and advisers, the disparity between the two men has grown ever larger.

Still despite their different styles, there has never been any kind of overt confrontation between Erdogan and Gul. When the AKP won the 2002 general elections, but Erdogan was temporarily forbidden to stand as a candidate, it was Gul who stood in for him until the law was amended and a by-election held. In 2007 the AKP fielded Gul as its candidate for president.

In the mind of the ordinary voters of rural Anatolia, the two men are still seen as friends who stand shoulder-to-shoulder. But among journalists and policy-makers things are more complex. Gul has worked closely with the AKP as head of state, vetoing only four laws out of more than 800 during his seven years in office—a much lower figure than his predecessors, allowing controversial legislation on law and order and control of the judiciary. But especially during his early years as president, many of his remarks consistently struck a much more liberal note than the administration, as when for example he criticized a ban upon YouTube in 2008.

During the Gezi Park protests of 2014, Gul promised demonstrators that there would not be a ‘witch-hunt’ or reprisals, assurances which were not borne out by events. As the government tightened up on controls of the internet and other civil liberties this year, commentators watched to see if he would delay controversial measures. He didn’t. His most flagrant deviation from the Erdogan line came when he offered his congratulations to President Sisi in Egypt on his election victory - something which is strongly held against him in some AKP circles.

Nevertheless Gul is seen as a potential rival to Erdogan rather than as his man. There are several reasons for this, apart from his aura of greater internationalism and liberalism.

Some of them are religious as well as political. Gul comes from a slightly different religious background to the prime minister, and does not belong to the Naqshbendi Sufi order, unlike most of the Cabinet. Inside the AKP the majority of MPs were hand-picked as candidates before the last election by Erdogan and their loyalty is reinforced by tight discipline and regular weekend meetings.

Only a minority, including some leading veteran figures such as the deputy Prime Minister, Bulent Arinc, represent other political and religious currents. And in any case, there is a staunch religious and political conservative whom some observers believe Erdogan is grooming to be prime minister after the 2015 elections, Numan Kurtulmus, though he too is not yet a member of the assembly.

So by choosing to return to politics, rather than perhaps going off to head an international organization, Gul takes the risk of finding himself on the fringes of politics. He might continue on the sidelines inside the AKP as a muted advocate for greater liberalism and flexibility, perhaps being given occasional honorific international roles but no key job. Or he could drift, into confrontation with the leadership and face possible eviction and perhaps try to create his own party. One thing is clear: if his power-base is ever tested against Erdogan in a vote, either in the party’s parliamentary party or indeed in the country, he will not win, indeed he cannot be absolutely sure that the AKP will field him as a candidate in next year’s elections.

That leaves Erdogan with the question of who is to be his immediate successor. The Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, is thought to be front-runner, though there are other less well-known figures in the parliamentary party whom he might bring forward. According to unconfirmed newspaper reports on Wednesday, some members of the parliamentary party have signaled that they would also like him to consider Arinc or the deputy prime minister in charge of economics, Ali Babacan.

The selection of Babacan would delight the business world but looks highly unlikely: there have been frequent reports that he intends to give up politics and last week one of Erdogan’s closest advisers, Yigit Bulut, launched a public attack on him, even accusing him of links with the Gulen movement, the secretive US-based religious brotherhood which Erdogan accuses of trying to overthrow him.

Arinc undoubtedly has the flair to be prime minister, but is seen as a cautious rival rather than a follower of Erdogan. In particular he opposed the introduction of an executive presidency which is one reason why the Assembly still has to amend the Constitution to create one. So an Erdogan-Arinc partnership would probably not be comfortable.

Pliability and loyalty are surely going to be close to the top of the list of qualities being sought when Erdogan makes his choice. The new prime minister will probably not even chair cabinet meets. That duty - and almost all other decisions - will rest with the new president.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.  

- David Barchard has worked in Turkey as a journalist, consultant, and university teacher. He writes regularly on Turkish society, politics, and history, and is currently finishing a book on the Ottoman Empire in the 19th century.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye. 

Photo credit: Turkish President Abdullah Gul (C) speaks to the media after casting his ballot in the Turkey's presidential election at a polling station in Ankara (AA)