Why the documents leak will send IS into crisis

Reports last week that Sky News has obtained tens of thousands of documents containing the names, addresses, phone numbers and family contacts of people who have joined the Islamic State (IS) may not deal a death blow to the group, but nor can its significance be downplayed.

Sky News has informed the British authorities, and the findings are being scrutinised by governments, intelligence agencies and media outlets. Germany's federal criminal police say they also have the files and believe they are authentic. They contain information on nationals from 51 countries, some of them previously unknown militants located in Europe, North America, the Middle East and North Africa.

This could serve to dissuade militants planning to travel to IS territories from making those journeys, given the heightened possibility of capture en route. Since the documents are forms that recruits have to fill out in order to be accepted into the organisation, this may dissuade potential members from signing up if they now see that the information they provide can be compromised.

Those outside IS territories who have already done so may decide to turn themselves in to relevant authorities in the hope of leniency - particularly if they provide useful information - or not follow through on their membership out of fear of getting caught.

Planned attacks may be abandoned, either by the planners or by those due to carry them out, if they suspect the likelihood of failure in light of the information revealed in the leaked documents. Those that do go ahead may be more likely to be thwarted by security forces in light of any new information they now have.

That the leak came from a disillusioned former IS member deals an important psychological blow to the group, since it will heighten internal suspicions about moles and dissent in its ranks. Those suspicions, leading to paranoia and distrust, may result in internal purges and disrupt IS's ability to carry out attacks that require significant planning and coordination.

Prior to the leak, there were already numerous reports of disillusionment among IS members. Some have deserted and others have tried to, leading to their execution by IS, sometimes en masse. Despite the bloody consequences, attempted and successful desertions continue - a testament to the strength of the disillusionment felt by those who take that chance.

This is not the first such leak, and it is unlikely to be the last. States are inherently more centralised and bureaucratic than militant groups, so the more IS tries to establish itself as a state, the more paperwork, documentation and records it will create and keep, and hence the greater the likelihood of them being compromised.

The leak comes at a bad time for IS, which is facing assaults against it from various parties and on numerous fronts, particularly in Syria and Iraq. In December, defence research firm IHS said the group had lost 14 percent of the territory it had held in those countries in January 2015. In January this year, a spokesperson for the US-led coalition said IS had lost 40 percent of its territory in Iraq and 20 percent in Syria.

The ongoing "cessation of hostilities" in Syria, while shaky, is putting further pressure on the group since its exclusion from the truce is allowing various forces to place more focus on combating it rather than other parties and each other. It was reported on Monday that IS's "war minister" Omar al-Shishani has been clinically dead for several days following a US air strike in northern Syria.

While one can debate the extent of recent IS battlefield and financial losses, there is little doubt that it is currently on the defensive, at least in Syria and Iraq. This latest leak represents an added headache for the organisation, with potentially significant operational and psychological repercussions.

The extent of those repercussions, and how IS will react to them, will not be disclosed by the group for obvious reasons. Even its opponents in possession of the files are likely to keep their cards close to their chest for maximum effect and to keep IS guessing. It is in this overall context of difficulties facing it that the potential damage caused by the leak should be viewed.

- Sharif Nashashibi is an award-winning journalist and analyst on Arab affairs. He is a regular contributor to Al Arabiya News, Al Jazeera English, The National, and The Middle East magazine. In 2008, he received an award from the International Media Council "for both facilitating and producing consistently balanced reporting" on the Middle East. 

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Photo: A video grab obtained in London from footage released by Sky News on 10 March, 2016 shows printed documents arranged for a report on a cache of leaked documents allegedly containing the personal details of some 22,000 Islamic State militants (AFP/SKY NEWS).