ANALYSIS: Can UN-brokered talks in Libya bring peace?

The United Nations has celebrated the first face-to-face talks between Libya’s two rival governments which took place this week in the west of the country. But, with violence ongoing and tensions still high, the ambition of bringing a lasting end to the civil war remains a long and difficult road.

UN special envoy Bernadino Leon hailed the talks as a “great day for Libya” after members of both factions met in Ghadames, western Libya, on 29 September for a day of discussions.

Libya is divided between the elected, internationally recognised, parliament, the House of Representatives, meeting in Tobruk, and members of the former General National Congress who control the capital, Tripoli. 

Monday’s talks produced the first lengthy discussions between the Tobruk parliament and members of that parliament who are boycotting it and supporting the congress in Tripoli.

“Choosing negotiation over confrontation is a very encouraging sign,” Leon said. “These efforts by all sides reinforce our belief and that of the international community, as well as of a great majority of Libyans, that dialogue is the only way to resolve differences.”

However, although the 22 participants at the talks agreed on the need for a ceasefire, no deal was formally signed. A bigger problem is that some of the key players in the current fighting were not invited.

The UN limited the talks to members of the existing parliament, split between those attending it and those who are boycotting in favour of the GNC. The GNC itself was not invited.

Some of those who were not included in the talks were quick to condemn the process. Nuri Abu Sahmain, head of the reformed, but internationally unrecognised, National Congress, complained he had not been invited. Astatement from Libya Dawn, an alliance of Islamist and Misratan militias which guards the capital, also said it did not recognise the talks and insisted that military operations would continue.

Opposition also came from the Grand Mufti, Sheikh Sadik al-Ghariani, Libya’s highest spiritual authority, who called for the talks to be suspended until the Supreme Court ruled on whether the Tobruk parliament was constitutional.

The issue of constitutionality goes to the heart of the dispute.

Libya Dawn and the former congress both argue that the Tobruk parliament, elected on 25 June, is illegal because it broke two of its stipulated rules; first, by not coming to Tripoli for a handover ceremony with congress, and second, by moving to Tobruk in Libya’s far east, rather than convening in Benghazi, the eastern capital, where the electoral law stipulates it must meet.

An additional complication is that there was no invitation for Ansar al-Sharia, the Islamist militia that controls much of Benghazi, Libya’s second city. This militia rejects democracy and in June proclaimed the city to be an Islamic emirate.

If the UN had issued invitations for all factions, it is unclear how many would have attended, and unclear also if the Tobruk parliament would have participated, having declared the rebels “terrorists”.

Nevertheless, UN officials insist they are optimistic, hoping that both sides will take back messages from the conference paving the way for a future round of talks after the coming Eid holiday.

The need for peace is pressing, with the UN saying that a quarter of a million Libyans have been displaced by the fighting. The country also remains deeply fragmented and its economy is in turmoil. 

The fighting dates back to May when renegade general Khalifa Haftar backed by some militias, army and air force units attacked Ansar al-Sharia positions in Benghazi.

Fighting then spread to Tripoli in July when Libya Dawn launched an assault to capture the international airport held by a militia from Zintan, who are seen as siding with Haftar.

The five weeks of fighting in the capital that followed saw heavy bombardments by all sides, culminating in Libya Dawn capturing Tripoli and the former congress being reformed and reinstated and a rival Islamist-leaning Prime Minister Omar al-Hasi being elected as its head.

Since then, fighting has continued in Benghazi and in Tripoli, where Libya Dawn forces have pushed south-west against pro-House of Representative units from Zintan and the Warshafani tribe.

September has also seen assassinations of more than 14 civil rights activists and army officers in Benghazi - seen as the birthplace of the 2011 revolution that toppled former dictators Moammar Gaddafi - where on Thursday three soldiers were killed and 60 wounded in a double suicide bombing. A further three soldiers were then also killed in clashes.

Prominent Islamist Abdul Hakim Bilhaj, who heads the Muslim Brotherhood inspired al-Watan Party, this week added his voice to calls for peace.

“We have to unite around one goal which is a democratic state,” he told CNN.

Bilhaj, who led the Tripoli Brigade, one of the revolutionary militias which captured Tripoli from Muammar Gaddafi in the 2011 revolution, said the stumbling block to negotiations remains questions over the legality of the new parliament.

“We have witnessed a parliament that came into existence in an unconstitutional way,” he said in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “That is what has pushed the revolutionaries to move forward.”

Growing polarisation

Another problem facing the UN negotiators is a hardening of attitudes on both sides of the line.

Five days before the talks, speaker of the Tobruk parliament Aguila Saleh Iissa told a session of the UN General Assembly in New York that Libya’s authorities were battling against “terrorists” (a reference to Libya Dawn and Ansar al-Sharia) and needed support. 

"Turning a blind eye to terrorism in Libya is no longer acceptable,” he said. "This would not have happened had the international community taken the situation in Libya seriously.”  

On the same day as Iissa’s speech, the UN held a working group chaired by secretary general Ban Ki-Moon which agreed to help Libya.

"The meeting recognised the lead role of the government of Libya in addressing the growing threat of terrorist groups, and the readiness to support the government in this regard,” the group’s chairperson said in a statement following the meet.

France has long maintained that militant groups, intent on perpetrating acts of terrorism, are present throughout Libya and Washington has declared Ansar al-Sharia a terrorist organisation, blaming it for the killing of its ambassador Chris Stevens in 2012.

The House of Representatives parliament in August also declared both Libya Dawn and Ansar al-Sharia “terrorist organisations.”

These declarations are potential stumbling blocks to a negotiated peace, as is the continuing fighting which serves to further poison the atmosphere between both sides.

The UN hopes that the next step will be an agreement from both sides that their militias will withdraw from the key cities, allowing government security forces to take their place. But this move is fraught with difficulties as both sides tend to see their own militias as a safeguard against attacks by the other. 

Beyond that will be questions of whether there should be power-sharing, as some in Libya Dawn want, or whether the Tobruk parliament should continue to be the sole internationally recognised authority, something that the House of Representatives itself insists on. 

The UN says it will continue to recognise the Tobruk parliament and support it as Libya’s legitimate authority, while encouraging it to be inclusive enough for all the country’s factions to feel they have a place within it.

One item that seems firmly off the peace table, however, is the deployment of a UN or international force. Despite calls for intervention by Tobruk, Libya Dawn said it would oppose any foreign deployment, and there is no enthusiasm among foreign powers for “boots on the ground”. 

The bottom line continues to be that while the UN is committed to facilitating dialogue, it is up to Libyans themselves to craft a lasting peace deal.