IS threat shifts regional alliances

A perceived common threat of the Islamic State’s (IS) advancement throughout the Middle East, has caused a shift in regional alliances, analysts say.

“Middle East players find themselves faced with potentially existential threats...from an Islamic force that obeys none of civilization's traditional rules, wrote David Andelman, editor in chief of World Policy Journal.

"Political leaders are so terrified at the prospects of an Islamic State takeover that they are willing to suspend their usual hatred … to confront the common enemy," Columbia Mideast researcher Gary Sick said to the Reno Gazette Journal.

A clear example of the shifting alliances is seen in the GCC oil-rich monarchies response to US calls to establish a coalition against IS. The GCC states fear that IS militants could advance towards their own borders, where the group may find support.

"The biggest danger (in the Gulf) comes now from these (emerging) terrorist groups, and not from the Muslim Brotherhood," said Abdulaziz Sager, head of the Gulf Research Centre think-tank.

“On a global scale, there is a realisation that the countries in the region have to be seen as acting against this threat. In order to present this united front, countries realise that disputes are less important,” said Carool Kersten, senior lecturer in study of Muslim World at King’s College London. 

Qatar's relations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain sank to a low in March when the three governments withdrew their ambassadors from Doha, accusing it of meddling in their affairs and supporting the Brotherhood - designated as "terrorist" by Riyadh.

Speaking to reporters following a meeting of Gulf Arab foreign ministers, Kuwait's top diplomat Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Sabah said that the six-months spat with Qatar was on its way to being resolved.

He said the ambassadors could return to their posts "at any time", without giving a specific date.

The announcement came as Saudi King Abdullah underscored the threat posed by IS militants unless there is "rapid" action.

"Terrorism knows no border and its danger could affect several countries outside the Middle East," Abdullah was quoted as telling ambassadors, including the US envoy, on Friday.

"If we ignore them, I am sure they will reach Europe in a month and America in another month," he warned.

Analysts say these shifts are not new in the region and are based on pragmatic and geopolitical interests of each state.

“Pragmatic decisions dictate that if there is s a perceived larger threat to a country’s security or regional stability, you see these differences put aside,” said Kersten.

Saudi authorities have long feared blowback from militant groups, particularly after a spate of Al-Qaeda attacks in the kingdom from 2003 to 2006.

Not only is the GCC overcoming its internal disputes, but the Gulf countries are also involving Iran in their fight against IS.

Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Monday he is willing to meet with his counterpart in Saudi Arabia, Prince Saud Al Faisal.

“The first opportunity for talks between me and his Excellency Saud Al Faisal is on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, and we hope to be able to use the opportunity,” Zarif said during a joint news briefing.

“After that I am ready to visit Saudi Arabia and welcome [Prince Saud] to Iran.”

The Iranian Deputy foreign minister, Hussain Amir Abdollahian, visited Saudi Arabia last week and met Al Faisal signifying a thaw in relations between the two countries, who have been regional rivals for many years.

The two discussed the situation in Iraq and "means to confront extremism and terrorism", an Iranian official said.

Previously, the growing influence of Shiite Iran has been seen as a threat to Saudi Arabia’s power in the region, with Saudi diplomats pushing for and supporting military action against the country should high-profile talks over Iran’s nuclear programme not succeed.

But analysts say Iran and Saudi Arabia are finding “themselves in broad agreement about the direction of Iraqi politics,” Sick was quoted as saying.

Western powers have also shown a change in their regional alliances.

France declared that it would join the US in sending weapons to Kurdish forces fighting IS militants in Iraq. While France’s president Francois Hollande called on global powers to unite in the face the IS threat, Hollande rejected Syrian president Bashar Assad’s invitation to cooperate in fighting IS in Syria.

However analysts believe that while global powers including the European Union and the US may not overtly ally with the Syrian government to fight IS militants in Syria, there is a possibility that countries will put their hands into Assad’s behind closed doors.

“Due to the common threat of ISIS there may be some kind of recognition behind the scenes that you may have to work quietly with your enemy’s enemy,” said Gabrielle Rifkind, director Middle East programme at Oxford Research Group.

“The countries which were part of different fault lines on Syria- Iran vs Saudi – are now forced to face common interests or greater threats/enemies than the splits between them,” said Rifkind.

US generals have called for the US military to take action against IS militants not only in Iraq, but in Syria as well. However US administration statements signalled towards the US backing a regional coalition that would lead an offensive against IS across the region.

Brian Katulis s, senior fellow at the Centre for American Progress, told MEE earlier this month: “The signals from the administration are that they [US] prefer that the countries in the region take action to defeat this threat. There is a strong attitude that countries like Turkey, Jordan and the GCC states need to play a more effective role on Syria.”

On-the-ground reports signal that this coalition may even include Iran, a long-time enemy for the US.

Iraqi forces aided by US air strikes and Iranian jets together broke through to the town of Amerli on 1 September, which was besieged by Islamic State militants for two months.

“The strange rapprochement between US and Iran is perhaps the clearest indication of how a threat perceptions can suddenly change the view of who you should cooperation. In less than a month, Iran was taken out of a Shiite crescent – Iran, Iraq and Lebanon threatening all the Sunni state,” said Kersten.

“Now IS is a considered even more dangerous; Washington and Tehran have buried the hatchet and Iran is no longer among the axis of evil,” Kersten told MEE.

Global alliances are likely to continue to expand in order to fight the growing IS threat.

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott on Tuesday said "extreme force" was justified in battling Islamic State militants, as his country will "in coming days" join ally the United States in an international effort to transport weapons to Kurdish forces in northern Iraq.

The announcement came as German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday defended a watershed decision to send arms to Iraq's Kurds, saying Europe's own security was at stake.