ANALYSIS: Difficult choices lie ahead for Israel's next coalition builder

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and the Zionist Union appear neck-and-neck after the close of voting in Israel on Tuesday.

While Channel 2 exit polls put Netanyahu at 28 seats, one seat ahead Zionist Union, both the official government Channel One, and the independent Channel 10 put the two at 27 each. 

With Joint List and Yesh Atid following just behind on 13 and 12 respectively, a number of possible scenarios have emerged for the next government.

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) had previously suggested three possible outcomes for Israel after negotiations.

One outcome would be a coalition based on centrist and centre-left parties in opposition to the Israeli right-wing, led by the Zionist Union and its leader Isaac Herzog.

Another possibility would be a weak right-wing government led by Netanyahu with the aid of the far-right Jewish Home and the ultra-Orthodox parties, excluding both the Zionist Union and the centrist parties.

A third option is a "Grand Coalition" in which Likud and the Zionist Union both go into coalition together in a government of national unity.

“Netanyahu has managed to turn around the elections over the last day or so,” Hugh Lovatt ECFR’s Israel and Palestine project coordinator told Middle East Eye.

He said that Netanyahu had successfully drawn voters away from Likud’s right-wing competitors, particularly as evidenced by exit polls showing the far-right Jewish Home party (previously tipped as third largest party in the Knesset) getting only eight seats.

“The party that’s taken the biggest hit is [Jewish Home leader] Naftali Bennett’s party, which has plummeted, so I think that it’s quite obvious that a lot of the seats that Netanyahu has claimed has come from Naftali Bennett and at his expense,” he told MEE.

But the collapse of Jewish Home also makes creating a right-wing government more difficult.

“Netanyahu himself cannot be too happy with the results. His late resurrection from political annihilation came at the expense of his old time political allies, the Jewish Home of Naftali Bennett,” said Meron Rappaport, a columnist for MEE.

“Another Netanyahu ally, Yisrael Beiteinu of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, slipped from 12 seats to five. He is completely dependent on Moshe Kahlon, an ex-Likud minister who resigned because of his uneasy relations with Netanyahu.”

“It will certainly not be easy to reach an understanding with him,” Rappaport added.

Netanyahu has already reportedly begun discussions with Bennett over the creation of a coalition government, but he faces a difficult road ahead with a weaker right-wing to draw support from.

Nevertheless, he lauded his party's results.

"Against all odds, a great victory for Likud, a great victory for the nationalist camp headed by Likud, a great victory for the nation of Israel," Netanyahu said in a Facebook post.

‘A difficult balancing act’

A major difficulty for Herzog in forming a coalition without Likud is that even with the support of the centrist and leftist parties (Kulanu, Yesh Atid and Meretz) he would not have enough.

This realistically leaves him with the option of either including the ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism) or the Joint List.

The ultra-Orthodox, however, are unlikely to be willing partners with Yesh Atid, who have emerged as the fourth largest party according to exit polls, and made the enlistment of the ultra-Orthodox into the military one of their flagship policies while in the previous coalition government.

“It would be a difficult balancing act to pull off,” said Lovatt, stating that the ultra-Orthodox parties loathed the secular, middle-class oriented Yesh Atid more than any other party.

The only other alternative, he noted, would be for Herzog to seek the support of the Joint List.

The Arab-dominated Joint List has thrown one of the most prominent spanners into the gears of this election, emerging as Israel’s third largest party according to exit polls. Originally, a move to increase the electoral threshold in Israel had led many to predict the demise of Arab representation in the Knesset.

However, the decision by the communist Hadash party, nationalist Balad and Taal parties, United Arab List and the southern section of the Islamic Movement, to form a coalition appears to have breathed new life into Israeli Arab politics with the party apparently the third largest party.

Joint List leader Ayman Odeh told MEE: “We reached our goals. We are the third biggest party. The voting percentage among the Arab population was the highest since 1999, and we will prevent the right-wing from creating the next government. The Joint List is a success story: we are at the heart of a historical event."

However, few believe that the Zionist Union would agree to form a coalition with the group.

“The parties supported by the Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel have been traditionally deemed unworthy coalition partners (a real Achilles heel of Israeli democracy and its lack of inclusivity),” said Daniel Levy, head of the MENA programme at the ECFR, noting that the Zionist Union’s policy would likely complicate coalition negotiations for them.

“If Herzog and his potential allies were willing to work with the joint Arab list whether as a formal part of a coalition or supporting the government with a set of understandings from the outside (a kind of confidence and supply arrangement) then the task would be easier.”

‘A Grand Coalition’

The Grand Coalition remains the other option – one that has already received the endorsement of Israeli President Reuvin Rivlin, who described it as the only way to stem the “rapid disintegration of Israel's democracy”.

Rappaport has also suggested that “at this moment, a government of national unity with Herzog seems the most probable scenario.”

“It will maybe save Netanyahu's political career, but taking into account previous experiences, it will mean an almost inevitable stalemate on the international and Palestinian arena. This is not good news for Israel, and maybe not even for Netanyahu himself,” Rappaport said.

But some have argued that the intensely dirty electioneering in the previous days and weeks has further intensified divisions between the Likud and Zionist Union, with the former accusing the latter of terminally threatening Israel's security. Back in January Netanyahu outright rejected any deal with Herzog, dubbing him a “radical leftist and anti-Zionist”.

“I think the Grand Coalition looks less likely by the day, or has in the days leading up to the election – not impossible, but I think it went from being the favourite option to option three, of three just because they’ve made it very difficult to go back in together,” said Levy.

But in the wake of the results Haaretz quoted some Likud officials already predicted a unity government.

"Netanyahu doesn't want a unity government, but sometimes you find yourself with no choice," the unnamed official said. "In this case, the most likely scenario is that the prime minister will agree to pay Zionist Union a heavy price, among other things, leaving Bennett or Lieberman in the opposition, to make it easier for Herzog to make the move agreeable for his party.”

One significant outcomes of a Grand Coalition outcome would be that it would likely leave the Joint List as Israel’s main opposition.

‘No left or right’

Always just under the surface of any election in Israel - particularly as far as the rest of the world is concerned - is the occupation and the treatment of the Palestinians.

For some, the election has become a clear choice about whether there should be a resumption of peace talks with the Palestinian authority, or whether the entire process should be abandoned, a choice made stark by Netanyahu’s admission that he would not pursue the creation of a Palestinian state were he to take power again.

But other commentators have remained sceptical that Herzog does not have any real intention - or ability - to pursue peace talks with a genuine aim to allowing Palestinian statehood.

“There is no better indication that Herzog has no intention of ending the occupation any time soon,” wrote Haaretz columnist Gideon Levy on CNN on Monday.

“Numerous peace plans have already been worked out in great detail; all that is needed is for one courageous Israeli leader to implement any one of them. Herzog, at least at this stage, does not seem to be the one capable of doing this.”

Many Palestinians, in addition, chose to boycott the election rather than take part in a system that they feel inherently disadvantaged within.

“We don’t care about the elections, we don’t believe that the Knesset is a solution to any of the Palestinian issues,” said Zahi Njedat, a spokesperson for the northern half of the Islamic Movement who chose not to join the Joint List.

“Today is a normal day for us. There is no right or left in Israeli politics, they all serve one goal. Since the first time an Arab entered the Knesset has been no change. The Knesset is an Israeli institution established to serve the interests of Israelis. It will not resolve any of our problems. We have faith in our people and their resistance.”

Additional reporting by Arwa Ibrahim