ANALYSIS: Will latest IS execution threat bring fresh violence to Egypt?

The 48-hour countdown to the Sinai-based Islamic State affiliate in Egypt's execution of the Croatian hostage has come to an end.

While it remains unclear whether IS have carried out its threat to kill the 30-year old Croat identified as Tomislav Salopek, analysts are worried about the ramifications of this incident and fear that it could spark further violence in Egypt. 

“This is first westerner to be kidnapped from the capital [Cairo] and to be executed in that way. The group’s demands are [also] very similar to IS demands in Iraq,” said senior lecturer in Security Studies at the University of Exeter Omar Ashour.

In an online video titled "A message to the Egyptian government," the militant group threatened to kill Salopek, if Muslim women kept in Egyptian prisons are not released. The deal should be made “before 48 hours from now [Wednesday],” said Salopek in the video, adding that IS would kill him if the agreement failed. 

In the video, a masked man with a knife is seen standing near kneeling Salopek, who is dressed in an orange jumpsuit. The black flag of IS is clearly visible. 

Salopek, an employee of Ardiseis Egypt, a subdivision of CGG, a company specialising in oil and gas geology, and based in France, is heard reading a note where he names himself, states his age, country and place of work.

While Ashour believes the group’s demand is unrealistic, “especially given that IS doesn’t hold territory to carry out a hostage exchange,” he sees the move as an attempt by the group “to capitalise on the situation in Egypt by trying to portray itself as the main challenge to the military government as well as the defender of the weak,” he added.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shokri announced on Friday morning that he is meeting Croatian Deputy Foreign Minister Vesna Pusic in Cairo to discuss ways to save Salopek, but observers are sceptical of the government’s efforts and believe their efforts will not be successful.

“The Egyptian government and its security apparatus have a horrible record when it comes to trying to save hostages," said Ashour. "The regime cares more about appearing to be strong rather than the plight of individuals.” 

On Thursday, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi inaugurated the Suez Canal in a historic celebration, trying to portray Egypt as the cradle for stability, security and economic development.

But despite Sisi’s efforts, some analysts have been sceptical of the economic gains the Suez Canal will bring and believe that the hostage incident could have wider ramifications for the country and hurt its attempts to lure in foreign investment. 

“While it is quite unusual that he [Salopek] was kidnapped in Cairo – Egypt’s best guarded city -  it is not the first time that the IS kidnaps or executes foreigners outside of Iraq and Syria, it happened in Libya on several occasions,” said Habib Sayah, an expert on militant movements and director of the Tunisian think tank Kheireddine Institute.

“The smuggling of Solopek to Sinai requires strong logistics which reveals the strength of IS network in Egypt. It may be new for the Egyptian branch - that has so far focused on guerrilla attacks and targeting the Egyptian authorities - but we will potentially see more incidents of this sort."

Ashour agreed: “A continuation of these incidents is expected, which will damage the tourism industry but will also be the cause for a rise in the rate of terrorist incidents especially in urban areas aimed at soft targets like tourism.”

“This will be utilised by the government as a way to provide legitimacy for the government to move to an even more brutal crackdown on opposition,” he added.

Other observers have also pointed towards a possible economic blowback. 

The Croatian in his note names the group which allegedly kidnapped him - Sinai Province (or Wilayat al-Sina), previously known as Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, which swore allegiance to IS back in November 2014. Now they call themselves “an official province” of IS in Egypt but it is difficult to know how much coordination really exists between all these groups. 

The Sinai province in Egypt's remote desert region, which borders the Gaza Strip, Israel and the Suez Canal, has been home to an insurgency for several years, with hundreds of security officers and militants killed in attacks and clashes. 

Since 2014, IS has staged mass executions of Syrian, Iraqi and Afghan soldiers. It also killed several people from Western countries, including US journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff, British aid workers David Haines and Alan Henning, as well as US humanitarian worker Peter Kassig. Japanese journalists Haruna Yukawa and Kenji Goto were also executed by the militant group.