US dilemma in Syria: Torn between allies that detest each other

The northern Syrian Islamic State (IS) group stronghold of al-Bab is the next town in the firing line for forces aligned with the US-led anti-IS coalition, after IS losses of nearby towns including Manbij and Jarabulus.

That impending assault presents the US with a difficult decision: Turkey has Syrian rebel forces ready to move on al-Bab from the north, while the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are sweeping in from Afrin to the west.

Both are allies of the US, and they detest each other. According to analysts, who the US sides with may have significant implications on policy in the coming months.

The Kurds, who with US aid have established the Kurdish-Arab SDF alliance, have been the more effective force against IS, defeating the militants in Kobane and Manbij.

Haid Haid, a Syria researcher originally from Aleppo, said the US has so far managed to keep Turkey and the SDF apart since Turkish forces entered Syria in August to take the town of Jarabulus.

Washington has been trying to gauge the effectiveness of the Turkish-backed forces, including elements of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Previous attempts by the US to train FSA groups with the intention of targeting IS rather than the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad proved disastrous and led to their current support for the SDF.

“The problem was that in the past, even when groups that were allied with Turkey were able to take over some areas, they were not able to defend those areas and IS would quickly retake the areas they had lost to groups allied with Turkey," Haid told Middle East Eye.

He said that to reduce tensions and the potential for clashes between Turkish forces and the SDF, the US may pursue a strategy of continuing to push the two groups in opposite directions, ensuring that the SDF would "be busy trying to take over Raqqa, which is a priority for the US". 

The US has sent special forces to embed with both Turkish forces in al-Rai and SDF forces north of Raqqa. In the case of the former, the relationship has not always been cordial.

Still, most analysts say the US may be able to pull off a balancing act without forcing its alliances to fully unravel.

Wladimir Van Wilgenburg, a journalist who was embedded with the SDF in Manbij, said he thought it would be too problematic for the US to throw its weight behind the SDF in an al-Bab offensive.

"I think the US is not backing the SDF going towards al-Bab," he told MEE.

Randa Slim, director of the Track II Dialogues initiative at the Middle East Institute, told MEE she did not think the US would risk abandoning its most effective fighting force.

"My bet is that they will continue with this hedging policy with the SDF and the Kurds," she said. "President Obama, more than ever, is interested in dealing a hard if not decisive blow against IS, be it in Mosul or in Raqqa."

"They are not going to abandon SDF, but at the same time they will continue to push the SDF not to cross the red lines that the Turks have established.”

Ankara's hostility to the SDF could not be clearer. Last weekend, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: "If they do not insert the PYD and YPG into this business, then certainly, we can get with the US in this fight." He added that it would be a "shame" if Turkey and the US could not work together to counter IS.

The SDF have been no less obstinate in their opposition to Turkey's forces taking part in anti-IS operations, having previously accused the country of backing IS with the intention of undermining the Kurdish presence.

"We will not allow the (Assad) regime to advance, and we will also prevent the Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army [FSA] factions from taking part in the liberation of al-Bab and its countryside," said Ahmed Sultan, deputy commander of the mostly Arab Jaish al-Thuwwar, a faction of the SDF.

"These factions are unable to make any progress without Turkey's support. We are able to clear the area of terrorism.”

Separate plans, targets

According to Turkey analyst Aaron Stein, the apparent aim of the US regarding the Turkish-backed forces is to help organise assaults on the IS-held towns of Sawran and Dabiq, some 60km northwest of al-Bab. 

The capture of Dabiq would, in particular, be a major symbolic blow for IS, as it plays a major part in their apocalyptic vision for the Middle East and is also the name of their propaganda magazine.

Stein said al-Bab could prove highly controversial and risk "deepening ethnic and political fissures" in the country if no proper strategy was put in place for holding the city afterwards.

"The SDF could capitalise on any major offensive for the city and try to push farther west, a scenario that would raise the risk of Turkish strikes on the group," Stein, wrote for the Atlantic Council.

He added: "A small Arab/Turkmen force, left behind after combat operations, could also become a target for the Syrian regime, raising the possibility of Turkish-Syrian clashes, which have the potential to increase tensions with Russia, the guarantor of Assad’s security along with Iran."

If Turkish-backed forces were to capture al-Bab it also would arguably be the final nail in the coffin for the goal of a unified Kurdish federal entity in northern Syria and would seriously undermine any future possibility for autonomy in the region.

The forces backed by Turkey under the banner of the FSA may be regarded with less suspicion by Syrian Arabs, many of whom accuse the SDF of being stooges for the Assad government or separatists seeking to create a Kurdish state.

However, Turkish control of the city could also be highly provocative - al-Bab is only 10km north of the pro-Assad frontline. While there appears to have been coordination between Ankara and Damascus over Turkey's latest incursion into Syria, due to a mutual enmity towards the SDF and its long-term goals, the positioning of Syrian rebel groups so close to Assad's forces could invite clashes that would risk bringing Turkish forces and Syrian government forces into direct confrontation.

But al-Bab may not even be a priority for the Obama administration. The road to Mosul, the IS stronghold in Iraq, is much more of a concern, according to Randa Slim.

"I don’t see them changing their policy in Syria - he is unlikely to upset whatever he has in place, be it with the SDF, or be it some kind of understanding with the Turks," she said.

"I think he is going to kick it down the road - the emphasis is going to be on Mosul."

This article is available in French on Middle East Eye French edition.