Israel displaces Palestinians in siege of northern Gaza, US 'red lines' fade again

Israel has begun a new military campaign in northern Gaza with an intensity not seen in several months, and the country's political and military leaders are reportedly weighing a plan that would see the full-scale forced displacement of Palestinians living there as well as an Israeli siege on the area.

Concerns were raised on Wednesday that the controversial plan, named the "general's plan", were already underway, as Israel's military this week began warning Palestinians in the north of the enclave to head south to Mawasi.

The State Department responded to the reported plans and concerns that Israel could possibly be creating a buffer zone in northern Gaza, saying it was opposed to any reduction in the Palestinian territory.

"We are going to continue to make absolutely clear that it's not just the United States that opposes any occupation of Gaza or reduction in the size of Gaza, but it is the virtual, unanimous opinion of the international community," Matt Miller told reporters on Wednesday.

"And we're going to continue to make that clear to them," he added.

Former diplomats and Palestinian analysts, however, say the US's public opposition to the plan is meaningless, as over the past year the Biden administration has publicly spoken of "red lines" in the war, only for Israel to cross them without any consequences from Washington.

In January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he was opposed to the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza. Since then, the number of Palestinians displaced by Israeli forces has reached 90 percent of the entire enclave's population.

'A red line can only mean something if it's accompanied by an 'or else''

- Omar Baddar, Palestinian-American analyst

In May, US President Biden said that an Israeli invasion of Rafah was a "red line". Then, after Israel launched an invasion of Rafah, the administration said the military operation was not the "full-scale" invasion it said it was opposed to.

And after Israel began escalating in Lebanon, including launching an invasion of the country, the US and France released a statement urging a ceasefire. That call was outright rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who continued with the invasion of Lebanon.

"A red line can only mean something if it's accompanied by an 'or else'," Omar Baddar, a Palestinian-American analyst, told Middle East Eye.

"And since President Biden has made clear that there will be no change in unconditional US support for Israel no matter what Israel does, Netanyahu is free to disregard the Biden administration's phantom red lines and proceed down the path of murderous escalation."

Charles Dunne, a former US diplomat and nonresident fellow at the Arab Center DC, told MEE that "US red lines are no longer taken seriously by Israel", saying that former President Barack Obama sent a message to the region when he ignored "his own red line", referring to Syria's use of chemical weapons in 2013.

"Biden has followed suit in the Gaza conflict, issuing red lines over protection of civilians and the invasion of Rafah that were ignored, and followed by continued US supply of arms and munitions, as well as pledges of 'unwavering' support for Israel," Dunne said.

"Nuance, if there is any, is simply ignored by Netanyahu, who sees right through American rhetoric, and is a past master at reading the US political system and gaming American presidents."

Failure to leverage or complicity?

Since Israel's war on Gaza began in October 2023, following the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel, the Biden administration has given its full-fledged support to Israel's war efforts.

Immediately following the launch of the war, Washington began fast-tracking weapons shipments, and throughout the next few months, the Biden administration blocked several diplomatic efforts calling for a ceasefire at the UN Security Council.

Biden's backing of Israel's war, which has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and destroyed much of Gaza's lands and civilian infrastructure, led to mass protests across the US and demands for Washington to pressure Israel into ending the war.

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There were rare moments of the US utilising its leverage over Israel, including when the administration paused a weapons shipment over concerns about Israel's plans to invade Rafah.

Still, experts say the US has failed to leverage its influence over Israel to stop the conflict from escalating into the regional war that has begun with the invasion of Lebanon, and the recent Iranian missile strike on Israel. Tehran said the strike was in response to Israel's killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut.

"Biden can end this catastrophe with one phone call. All he has to say is that the US will suspend all military funding for Israel until Israel agrees to a ceasefire," Baddar told MEE.

"Sadly, he lacks the backbone and it's innocent civilians in Palestine and Lebanon who are paying the price."

Other analysts view the past year differently, arguing that the administration is complicit with Israel's actions in Gaza and now Lebanon while playing a game of deception in the public eye.

“There are two ways of looking at the last 12 months of US diplomacy in the Middle East - either as an abject failure or a deceptive success," Tariq Kenney-Shawa, US policy fellow at al-Shabaka, previously told Middle East Eye.

"To a certain extent, the US shares Israel’s interests and objectives and has been using flowery human rights rhetoric and 'ceasefire talks' as a way of distracting all parties involved and buying Israel time to carry out its genocide in Gaza, strike heavy blows against its regional adversaries, and re-establish the status quo through brute force," Kenney-Shawa said.