Ex-US diplomat calls 'red lines' meaningless as Israel orders 400,000 to leave Gaza's north
A former US diplomat has said that Israel is not taking any of the red lines issued by Washington seriously after it ordered the forced displacement of nearly 400,000 Palestinians living in northern areas of Gaza.
Concerns were raised on Wednesday when the Israeli military launched a major new offensive on the Jabalia refugee camp and ordered the entire population of northern parts of Gaza to head south to Mawasi, a "humanitarian zone" which has repeatedly been targeted by Israeli air strikes.
For several weeks, Israeli officials had flirted with the idea of implementing a plan conceived by retired Major-General Giora Eiland that would see northern Gaza emptied of its residents to make way for a "closed military zone".
In a press briefing on Wednesday, the US State Department said it was opposed to any "reduction" of the strip when asked about the controversial proposal, known as the "general's plan".
"We are going to continue to make absolutely clear that it's not just the United States that opposes any occupation of Gaza or reduction in the size of Gaza, but it is the virtual, unanimous opinion of the international community," US spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters.
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"And we're going to continue to make that clear to them [Israel]," he added.
Former diplomats and Palestinian analysts, however, said that Washington's public opposition to the plan was meaningless, as Israel had repeatedly crossed all the "red lines" set by the Biden administration without any consequences.
Charles Dunne, a former US diplomat and non-resident fellow at the Arab Center DC, told MEE that "US red lines are no longer taken seriously by Israel", adding that former President Barack Obama sent a message to the region when he ignored "his own red line", referring to Syria's use of chemical weapons in 2013.
"Biden has followed suit in the Gaza conflict, issuing red lines over protection of civilians and the invasion of Rafah that were ignored, and followed by continued US supply of arms and munitions, as well as pledges of 'unwavering' support for Israel," Dunne said.
"Nuance, if there is any, is simply ignored by Netanyahu, who sees right through American rhetoric, and is a past master at reading the US political system and gaming American presidents."
In January, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he was opposed to the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza. Since then, the number of Palestinians displaced by Israeli forces has reached 90 percent of the entire enclave's population.
'A red line can only mean something if it's accompanied by an 'or else''
- Omar Baddar, Palestinian-American analyst
Later, in May, Biden said that an Israeli invasion of Rafah was a "red line". Then, after Israel launched an invasion of Rafah, the administration said the military operation was not the "full-scale" invasion it said it was initially opposed to.
And after Israel began escalating in Lebanon, including launching an invasion of the country, the US and France released a statement urging a ceasefire. That call was outright rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who continued with the invasion of Lebanon.
"A red line can only mean something if it's accompanied by an 'or else'," Omar Baddar, a Palestinian-American analyst, told Middle East Eye.
"And since President Biden has made clear that there will be no change in unconditional US support for Israel no matter what Israel does, Netanyahu is free to disregard the Biden administration's phantom red lines and proceed down the path of murderous escalation."
Failure to leverage or complicity?
Since Israel's war on Gaza began in October 2023, following the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel, the Biden administration has given its full-fledged support to Israel's war efforts.
Immediately following the launch of the war, Washington began fast-tracking weapons shipments, and throughout the next few months, the Biden administration blocked several diplomatic efforts calling for a ceasefire at the UN Security Council.
Biden's backing of Israel's war, which has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and destroyed much of Gaza's lands and civilian infrastructure, led to mass protests across the US and demands for Washington to pressure Israel into ending the war.
There were rare moments of the US utilising its leverage over Israel, including when the administration paused a weapons shipment over concerns about Israel's plans to invade Rafah.
Still, experts say the US has failed to leverage its influence over Israel to stop the conflict from escalating into the regional war that has begun with the invasion of Lebanon, and the recent Iranian missile strike on Israel.
Tehran said the strike was in response to Israel's killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Abbas Nilforoushan in Beirut.
"Biden can end this catastrophe with one phone call. All he has to say is that the US will suspend all military funding for Israel until Israel agrees to a ceasefire," Baddar told MEE.
"Sadly, he lacks the backbone and it's innocent civilians in Palestine and Lebanon who are paying the price."
Other analysts view the past year differently, arguing that the administration is complicit with Israel's actions in Gaza and now Lebanon while playing a game of deception in the public eye.
“There are two ways of looking at the last 12 months of US diplomacy in the Middle East - either as an abject failure or a deceptive success," Tariq Kenney-Shawa, US policy fellow at al-Shabaka, previously told Middle East Eye.
"To a certain extent, the US shares Israel’s interests and objectives and has been using flowery human rights rhetoric and 'ceasefire talks' as a way of distracting all parties involved and buying Israel time to carry out its genocide in Gaza, strike heavy blows against its regional adversaries, and re-establish the status quo through brute force," Kenney-Shawa said.
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