Senior senators warn Israel-Saudi normalisation is slipping away from US
Senior US lawmakers have said that achieving a deal to normalise ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia is slipping out of Washington's grasp as Israel’s war on Gaza drags on and the American presidential election approaches.
“Ratification of a new security treaty with the United States and the Saudis, in an environment this close to an election, in an environment this charged, I think would be exceptionally difficult,” Democratic Senator Chris Coons, a key Biden ally, told Jewish Insider.
The Biden administration is trying to cajole Israel into a ceasefire with Hamas by holding out the promise of a normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia.
However, Riyadh wants concrete steps towards a two-state solution but is also in talks with the US for a series of diplomatic deals, including an agreement on nuclear energy, a security pledge, and expedited arms deals, former US officials confirmed to MEE.
A defence treaty with the guarantees Saudi Arabia seeks would likely need to be ratified by the Senate. Coons’ comments reflect the difficulty of getting congressional approval for a deal when Biden’s own party is split on whether or not he should even move forward as their nominee.
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Middle East Eye reported on Friday that former US officials close to the former Trump administration said Saudi Arabia is already signalling that it sees Trump’s return to the White House as inevitable. Other former US officials told MEE that Biden’s window for a deal is narrowing.
“It’s clear at this stage that none of this is going to work through Congress before the November elections,” Elizabeth Dent, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told MEE, referring to the Biden administration’s prospective agreements with Riyadh.
Coons said that those watching for a deal would need to see a “prompt announcement” of one from the Biden administration in the coming days. It would also require Congress to come back into session during the summer.
'None of this is going to work through Congress before the November elections'
- Elizabeth Dent, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham warned that if Biden is unable to cut a deal with Saudi Arabia now, normalisation would likely be off the agenda in the near future.
In anticipating a Trump presidency, he said his fellow Republicans would be unable to get Democrats on board with nuclear and defence commitments to Saudi Arabia.
“It’s got to be done in the lame-duck session [between November and January]. It can’t happen when Trump returns,” Graham told the Jewish Insider.
Why do something for Biden?
Graham, a supporter of Trump, has been ferrying messages between Saudi Arabia and the Biden administration in a bid to help craft a deal. The staunchly pro-Israel lawmaker visited the kingdom in January and met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Graham said last year that a normalisation deal was key to ending the Israel-Palestine conflict, saying that if the talks collapse, the Middle East faces “another generation of just tit-for-tat death”.
Analysts say one reason Hamas likely launched its 7 October attack on southern Israel was to derail talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Even Graham acknowledged in an interview with NBC News that “Arab countries cannot normalise with Israel if they're seen as throwing the Palestinians under the bus.”
But analysts warn that Israel is unlikely to make any concessions towards the Palestinians if it believes Trump is on the verge of returning to the White House.
During the US presidential debate in June, Trump accused Biden of not giving Israel free rein to fight in Gaza.
"Israel is the one that wants to keep going, and you should let them go and let them finish the job," he said.
The Biden administration has widely backed Israel’s offensive on the Gaza Strip, but Biden has criticised the high Palestinian death toll.
“The Biden administration is not going to be able to make progress on post-war Gaza planning in the next four months because if it looks like Trump’s prospects of winning are increased, Israel’s government will stall concessions,” Gregory Gause, an expert on Gulf politics at Texas A&M University, told MEE.
“Why do something for Biden if Trump is going to get elected?”
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