Iraqis face new electoral landscape

With unfamiliar election laws and new mechanical ballot machines set to confound voters, an uptick in violence is not the only challenge facing Iraqi voters on Wednesday.

However, Iraqis have a clear enthusiasm for politics - and passions are running higher since this is the first vote since US troops completely withdrew in 2011. On the streets of Baghdad, wall upon wall is plastered with colourful election posters. 

The close of Wednesday’s election at 6pm will herald the beginning of a complex period of vote counting and horse trading until a new government is formed. The Iraq High Election Commission (IHEC), a neutral body that is entrusted to run the elections, will come under pressure to perform under what are undoubtedly difficult circumstances. 

The security situation has steadily worsened in the run up to the elections as extremists exploit the situation to raise their profile. On Monday’s Special Election Day, when voting was held for the military, police and those in hospital, two suicide bombs ripped through polling stations in Baghdad and there were many other attacks across the country.

However, this did not deter the voters: The IHEC reported a staggering 92 percent turnout nationwide. In a meeting with international election monitors, the Chairman of IHEC said the electoral process "is run with integrity. It is important to gain the trust of society". However, he admitted that, "the procedure is not 100% but IHEC is working in a difficult situation" 

A major part of the commission's work has been raising public awareness about significant changes to election laws. In 2010, the Iraqi parliament voted to drop a quota system in favour of a specially modified version of the Sainte Lague proportional representation system. Legislation passed last November also increased the number of parliamentary seats from 325 to 328, giving more opportunities for small and medium-sized parties to win seats.

Yet the new system has not proved to be as beneficial to smaller lists as many first thought, and has also damaged larger parties. Winning more than half the vote does not guarantee that a party will win half the seats. It has has been modified in such a way that some smaller groups will lose out, as will the larger lists.

Some groups have tried to use the system to their advantage, such as the Sadrists, who have split into three lists in Baghdad and two in the southern city of Nasariyah. This plethora of new lists and parties is adding to the vibrant, if complicated, nature of Iraqi politics.

A leading official from the Islamic Dawa Party, Hayder Abadi, said his party had tried to use the law to their advantage, strategically encouraging groups in the party to splinter off so that they could gain more seats and then join together after the election.

Other groups, such as Iraqiyya al hurra, have gone in the opposite direction and joined up with the ruling State of Law Coalition in some provinces, while also standing on their own in other areas.

What is clear is that the large blocs may be hit hard by these changes. Abadi said that the Sainte Lague system was "more democratic but less useful to the country". As there are fears it will only worsen the situation in the frequently stalemated parliament.

Ultimately, it is the medium-sized parties that will gain in these elections, with larger lists such as State of Law losing seats to the middle-sized lists and smaller lists losing out completely. This is a partial reason that the super blocs seen in the 2010 elections have disintegrated causing competition to increase. The large Sunni and Shiite coalitions have fragmented with the Kurdish parties running on a separate list in most regions.

In addition to the changes in the election law, a new electronic voting card system has been introduced in an attempt to stop fraud and ballot stuffing. The new system has also added another layer of complication, so IHEC has held 162 educational seminars to teach people about the system. The system will stop ballot box stuffing as each ballot in the system has a barcode that is registered to a device. If there are more votes in a ballot box than the device has recorded, they can then check which votes are legitimate, whereas previously the whole box would have been discarded. Confusion about this is widespread. Many people think that the vote is not anonymous and that the IHEC will be able to trace an individual vote to their personal details.

Most problematic of all is the fact that the new electronic machine has a cut off time. While the polling times for this election have been extended by two hours to 6pm the new device will only work until 6pm before it automatically shuts off. This is problematic. In previous elections polling stations have been able to stay open later if voters were queuing past the cut-off. Or if, as in many areas of Iraq that have seen an increase in violence with the coming elections, voters want to see whether it is safe to vote. With the immovable 6pm cut-off, it seems that many queuing voters may be left angry on election day.

There have also been complaints over the mass buying of voting cards in strategic areas such as Kirkuk. The new system requires at least one form of identification to be used alongside an election card and thumbprint which can only be used in the same polling machine once. Those buying cards are hoping to wipe out supplies in key areas and stop people from voting legally.

These issues on top of the negative security situation makes the election harder to predict than first thought. In the run up to the election, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki has been seen by many as assured of a win, yet his competitors have been busy formulating ways to keep him from a third term. Even if they aren’t successful in their elections strategy, they may conspire against Maliki when he wins. His lack of popularity with other political parties could mean a post-election coalition would be easier between his enemies than with his State of Law coalition. 

A leading organiser of the Muwatin coalition confirmed that parties may attempt to use tactics Maliki has used against him, if they get the chance. In the last election, an article from the constitution was interpreted so that Maliki could be put forward to form a government even though Iyad Alawi's Iraqiyya bloc had gained more seats in parliament. With this as a precedent, Muwatin, Ahrar and the Kurds may attempt to form a government even if Maliki is head of the leading bloc.

This scenario will undoubtedly put pressure on Maliki to step aside or force his State of Law coalition to sacrifice the premiership. This will put his incumbent coalition in a difficult position and would be interpreted as a sign of weakness that could be exploited by the Shiite community and militants.

There is also increasingly bold rhetoric from the Kurds in the run up to the election. The Kurdistan Regional Government's Foreign Representative, Falah Mustaha Bakir, stated recently in a meeting in London that the Kurds would not accept a Maliki third term. This pressure on State of Law may mean the coalition will be pushed to change its leadership, if its return from this election is lower than predicted.

What is easy to predict in this election is chaos. There will be a crush of people struggling to get their votes in before the mechanised voting machine cuts them off. Confused and angry voters are likely to flood the streets at on Wednesday at 6pm as their votes are not accepted. While it may be difficult to predict the political makeup of Iraq's next government, the desire for a better system of democracy seems clear.

- Samuel Morris is the Project Director of The Next Century Foundation and Director of The International Communication Forum.

Photo: Ramadi voters return from a visit to polling booths in Iraq's 2010 election (Wikicommons/Sgt. Michael J. MacLeod)

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.