Iraqis defy violence to vote for 'change'

Voting in Iraq had a rocky start in some parts on Wednesday with early violence striking polling stations and heated rhetoric circling about the consequences of the vote.

In separate incidents, two Iraqi election commission workers and two women were killed, with several polling stations targeted and a high-ranking police officer narrowly dodging an assassination attempt.

Violence was also reported in the restive Anbar province, where the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant militants has taken control in several areas. The militant’s control of the Anbar city of Fallujah prevented any voting there.

Despite these incidents, polling stations were reportedly crowded as millions of Iraqis arrived to vote. Many of the main election candidates showed up early to cast their ballots, with some spotted queuing alongside regular voters. 

“There is a lot of hope that these elections could bring positive change to Iraq, with a key difference for this vote being a far more politicised and competitive environment among the parties,” said Hayder al-Khoei, an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

“Traditional blocs have fractured and are running separate lists, which is good for democracy as the victors are more likely to strike deals that cross party lines.”

The vote is the first since the US withdrew its troops in 2011 following its 2003 invasion. Incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is seeking a third four-year term, is widely expected to win. In a speech earlier in the day, he jubilantly proclaimed that victory for his State of Law coalition was "certain" despite the precarious security situation.

"Today is a big success, and even better than the last elections, even though there is no foreign soldier on Iraqi soil," Maliki said.

Grievances over his government remain high, with critics concerned over the deteriorating security situation, a poor economic performance and endemic corruption, as well as what some have labelled Maliki’s increasingly authoritative style.

Jawad Said Kamal al-Din, 91, who cast his vote in a Baghdad polling station echoed sentiment elsewhere by saying he was voting for "change".

"I hope that Iraq has a safe future, and that unemployment is tackled, and industry, agriculture and trade return to their original stature, instead of just relying on oil," Kamalal-Din told AFP.

"I hope to change all the current politicians, especially members of parliament, because they are thieves and are looting the country's money."

Fareed Sabri, a former spokesperson for the Iraqi Islamic Party 2006-08, also slammed what some perceive as a growing centralization of power in the hands of a few.

“Every institution, from the judiciary to the police, is in the hands of Maliki and this is a major problem as it heavily infringes on Iraq’s constitution.

“There is barely a glimmer of hope for these elections, with people pessimistic about every area of their lives, because of massive human rights violations and a terrible state of security under Maliki’s premiership.”

Discourse has so far focused heavily on security, with Maliki presenting himself as a stability candidate who is willing to crack down hard on the Sunni Islamist fighters that have managed to strengthened their presence in Iraq following the civil war in neighbouring Syria.

For some, this security has come at too high a price, with the government criticised by human rights groups for heavy handed police tactics, as well as for crackdowns on protest and dissent.

“The notion that there is open and free discourse centred on ordinary issue is pretty far-fetched,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a US think tank.

This is being fuelled by “overriding sectarianism that is gripping the country […] it has not gone away and has possibly gotten worse as things have slipped back.”

Sectarian tensions flared up following the 2003 US-led invasion to topple former Sunni strongman Saddam Hussein and exploded into a fierce wave of bloodletting between 2006 and 2008. Some 60 to 65 percent are Shiites and 30 to 35 percent are Sunnis, while the once vibrant Christian community has fled Iraq in droves since 2003.

The splits are clearly visible in Iraq’s political landscape, with the latest elections dominated by six different blocks and more than 9,000 candidates vying for a spot in the 328-seat parliament. While polls closed today at 6pm local time (4pm GMT) the results are not expected to start trickling in until early next week. Even once they are announced, government formation could take months.

“It may even break the record again,” says Katulis in reference to 2010 when it took nine months to form a cabinet.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s, State of Law group, is tipped to win the vote especially after securing seven of 12 provinces in last year’s provincial elections.

Its main opponent, the al-Muwatin block is headed by powerful cleric Ammar al-Hakim of the Shiite Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and contains many former minsters. However both al-Muwatin and State of Law, are seen as very Shite dominated and endorse similar kinds of policies.

Two other Shiite dominated blocks, which run more counter to the grain are also standing. Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s al-Ahrar’s blocks could have been influential, and Sadr has been vocal in his criticism of Maliki’s alleged sectarian policies, but the poplar clerics’ decision to officially step retire from politics earlier this year may seriously hurt his block’s chances although some analysts say it might help his chance. 

Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi has similarly tried to distance himself from the sectarian policies of the main blocks, but his al-Wataniya block is a far cry from his 2010 Sunni-Shiite alliance block, Iraqiya. Iraqiya secured the majority of seats in the last elections but was outmanoeuvred when Shiite parties formed a coalition and enabled Maliki to form the government.

Following the defeat, the Sunni blocks distances themselves from the alliance and splintered into the Mutahidoun block led by parliament speaker, Osama al-Nujaifi, and al-Arabiya which is led by Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq.

The Kurds have continued to represent a united front nationally and the United Kurdish Alliance is still made up of the two main Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) headed by Iraq's president, Jalal Talabani, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) which is under the leadership of the president of the self-ruled northern Kurdish region, Masoud Barzani. On a regional basis, however, they have remained split and the local authority cabinet has not yet been formed 

“What we have seen – this splintering - has happened to almost all the major parties,” says Katulis. “It is a phenomenon that is spreading across the whole Middle East in some respect. 

“Since 2010 there has been a fracturing of power in the former coalitions. It is not immediately clear why this has happened and the issue is much deeper than a simplistic political analysis, but there is an aspect of self-interest and people do not seem to think that it is in their self-interest to gravitate toward these larger blocks,” he added.

But while this splintering will mean it may take even longer to form a ruling coalition, it has not taken away from the vote.

Anas Altikriti, a UK-based Sunni Iraqi commentator and head of the Cordoba Foundation, is dismissive of the prospect of democracy in the country, but believes that they are still vital for the Sunni minority.

“The elections are not bringing Iraq closer or father away from democracy,” he said.

“The elections must be see for what they are as a core for survival to the different factions, to proclaim that they are still there, particularly for the Sunni Iraqi’s who have been marginalised from economic and political prosperity, targeted by military attacks, and forces allied to central to al-Qaeda and Daish [ISIL]. For Arab Sunnis, the taking part in the elections means we are still here and we have some political aspirations.”

Turnout in the last election was 62 percent although security concerns and Maliki’s poll lead are expected to cause that to drop this time around. Widespread disruption to polling in the Anbar province, which hosts a large Sunni population and where some 380,000 have been displaced according to Medecins Sans Frontiers, is in particular expected to hamper participation.

“Sunnis are hoping to have an expression of existence,” says Altikriti. “They have been adamant to take part in elections. It is surprising.

“They see it is a time of make or break, of creating a Sunni province. In all the areas where Iraqis have managed to vote, they came out in numbers. I received a steady stream of news from Mosul and Ninawa and, despite the danger, many people are going out to vote, because they feel that if they [don't vote], they will be side-lined otherwise,” he added.

Kerry praises 'courageous' Iraqi voters

US Secretary of State John Kerry on Wednesday praised the millions of Iraqis who "courageously voted" in general elections, saying many had acted "heroically" in standing up to militant threats.

"With ink-stained thumbs, Iraqi voters sent a powerful rebuke to the violent extremists who have tried to thwart democratic progress and sow discord in Iraq and throughout the region," Kerry said in a statement. "[They] reaffirmed not just their commitment to democracy, but their determination to achieve a more secure and peaceful future."

"Iraqi citizens stood up to extremist threats, and many acted particularly heroically, including a police officer who gave his own life to shield voters from a suicide bomber near a polling station," he said.

The top US diplomat also praised Iraqis of all ethnic and religious groups for turning out, saying the elections were "critical to advancing the vision of a democratic, united, federal, and pluralistic Iraq."

"This election is one step in a democratic process," Kerry stressed, calling on Iraq's leaders "to respect the constitutional framework for certifying the vote and forming a new government."

"We will now continue to encourage all Iraqi leaders to focus on pulling their country together and forming a new government that can effectively deliver for all of Iraq's 18 provinces," he added.